psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was living in western PA, where we ended up with 2 feet. I don't think I would consider it a number 1 or even 2 storm for me. The main reasion is it seemed to go by very fast. It literally started snowing (lightly) around dawn on a Saturday, and was pretty much over by 8 p.m. that night. It ripped snow, 2-3 inches an hour, from about noon to 8 p.m., but then shut off pretty abruptly, at least back that way. I much prefer PII in 03, Dec. 09, or Feb 5/6 2010 where it snowed more than 24 hours. I am the opposite, I would much rather get 24 inches in 12 hours then 24 inches in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Sun Angle concerns Boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. I can remember snow accumulating around the 22nd/23rd of April in 1993. At least I think it was 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 looks like this is a do or die storm. Both models end winter after the storm I think things moderate for a time following this storm, but I do think there is one more major amplification of the trough into the east towards March 15-20th or so. Of course we would need something really perfect at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The difference in track between the GFS and Euro is a function of how they are handling the h5 setup. Looking for a trend north on the GFS is not the idea, its all about how it handles the interaction between the h5 low diving out of Manitoba and the old H5 low over the northern Lakes. The op euro has for 3 runs now been phasing them, pinwheeling the low to our north west then phasing it into the system, thus allowing the flow to back along the coast and get the ridging needed for this to develop further. The GFS is keeping those systems seperate. If they do not phase, the GFS track, or at least the idea that this wont develop in time for us, is probably right because with that low right there to our north the flow is suppressive. I have no idea which idea is correct, but our odds for a big snow are small because even the last 3 op euro runs that did phase, only one of them did so in a way to bomb the low out in time for us. LIke mitch pointed out, a moderate storm will not work. The trough is great but all the cold is on the other side of the globe. We have no arctic air to work with. Boundary layer temps will suck. From here on out its go big or go home, we are not likely to get a 1-3" or marginal event, we need something to bomb and give us hours of heavy precip to convectively cool the boundary layer. The last run of the euro is pretty to look at but would be 38 and moderate rain for most of the event. We need a solution like the euro from 2 nights ago, or yesterdays euro but shifted 200 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If this one doesn't work out, in 10 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 If this one doesn't work out, in 10 days..... You will hopefully be in your speedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 In joking. But 2nd half of March isn't too late for you. I chased snow last April 22nd. It accumulated above 1500' north of Frederick. Yeah, I went back and looked, I recorded a T for 4/23/2012 and 4/24/2012, which covers previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Pretty muct too late. Last measurable snow at DCA is April 28th I believe of .5" Obviously I was kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. I was thinking how ironic it was in the last two plains blizzards that we needed the 500 lows to come further east, but they ran to about Missouri and hit a brick wall. When we need one to slow a bit, it's a steam roller. I've come to agree with you about north vs west trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy From what I have seen, he is pretty good. Doesn't seem to hype too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy He's a meteorologist and posts on AMWX in the SE forums occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy He is "FoothillsNC" in the SE forum, not a hype guy, he said there is potential for a winter storm, he hasn't called it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 He is "FoothillsNC" in the SE forum, not a hype guy, he said there is potential for a winter storm, he hasn't called it yet. he drew a map and put us in the big Fat Heavy snow color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 After second look I do think the 0z euro is very close... and a better run for us then the 12z. If it was just say 50 miles north and 4 mb deeper it would be the perfect solution for us. That is a minor adjustment for 6-7 days away. Maybe this is just my perception, but I would much rather need a "north" trend then a "west" trend leading up to a storm. Models are rarely correct with exact track this far out, so needing a north trend is no big deal IMHO, but a west trend means we need a faster amplification solution and that rarely works out. euro is bouncing around it seems mainly. not sure there are any trends there. 0z night before last was a NW of 95 event into WV, 12z yday was a Cape May paster, 0z last night crushed ROA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 who is WX south? He is calling for a major snowstorm. Does he have any credibility? Seems like a hype guy Ji, he's not "calling" for it. He said it was possible and "if the models are right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 that wxsouth map is total lol social media is making forecasting a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 500 low south of Atlanta isn't going to help us out (12z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the GFS runs are getting worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Georgia and SC do good this run.. I'm staying up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 On the GFS, if that ne upper low is a little further east/north, I'd say we'd be in business for the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 that wxsouth map is total lol social media is making forecasting a joke Social Media Feedback Loop: 1) Find 8-day forecast of east coast storm 2) Post snowfall map 3) 8 days later (verification time) if snowstorm verifies then "Post on facebook noting your heroic forecast with an 8-day lead time" ....collect more followers endif if snowstorm doesn't verify then "Post on facebook that is was just one model solution---tell followers it was never your actual forecast" endif 4) Rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 if this storm ended up north..it could be historic. Look at all the moisture being dumped in South Carolina from what the GFS has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 On the GFS, if that ne upper low is a little further east/north, I'd say we'd be in business for the real deal. The whole setup through the weekend has been wreaking havoc on the evolution of the ull diving down. The real freakout comes when when a model shows the closed low to the ne becoming a block and pushes the se cutoff low into stall mode off of OC or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Not a single person on earth is skilled enough to know the minutia of how this storm will evolve... Absolutely. The ul setup this weekend over the east has been moving all over the place on the models. Zero chance the sw can be properly resolved until we get through saturday if not sunday and even then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Social Media Feedback Loop: 1) Find 8-day forecast of east coast storm 2) Post snowfall map 3) 8 days later (verification time) if snowstorm verifies then "Post on facebook noting your heroic forecast with an 8-day lead time" ....collect more followers endif if snowstorm doesn't verify then "Post on facebook that is was just one model solution---tell followers it was never your actual forecast" endif 4) Rinse and repeat hah, pretty much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 yes I am going with the GFS on this one...the euro bias is showing here in overamplifying...it makes perfect sense that the ULL will get out ahead....we can just hope that it trends north Because it's in the realm of possibility....getting a closed ull to crawl the coast can happen here. This is exactly the type of setup that can make it happen. hl blocking stopping a 50/50ish in its tracks with a cutoff over the se. I know it's a reach and a prayer but if we are going to get a coastal crawler/staller....there are some necessary pieces already on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 DT says to ignore the GFS. So in my mind..the run never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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