yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 well h5 plowing itself into S SC isnt going to help us at all... but still nice to still see it there on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I like where I am sitting and definitely think this run is a step in the right direction. Too early to be in the bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 congrats NC Surface temps appear to be torching in NC at the height of the precip. Seems to me in order for them to get cold air the system would have to phase, and with that the track would probably take it closer to us. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'll tell you, read through this NE thread and see how many people in NE thought they would get days of snow and they got diddly last night into today and will get a hair over diddly over the next few days Euro has sucked in the 5+ day range http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39457-feb-27th-threat-to-be-discussed-in-time-but-it-should-tend-to-more-miller-b/ Not disagreeing, but how much of that was a product of the pattern we had? I could be way off, but my feeling is that models do much better in a slower, blocking scenario. Not saying that any model is depicting an accurate outcome at this point, but I do think they've got the right idea and aren't totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gfs has been steadfast for 6+ runs more or less and has trended south with the vort. However, 12z definitely looked stronger with the Ull even though we got whiffed south. Still a legit threat in modeland. If it whiffed nw we'd be cancelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Latest Canadian (GGEM) is either on something or onto something as it is way northwest of other guidance, In fact, per GGEM, the storm passes through the Great Lakes and then re-develops as a snow bomb for SNE. Very different than other guidance---hopefully very wrong. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EC I supposed would be good seeing this at 120,,, http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2013022800/USA_HGT_500mb_120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 EC I supposed would be good seeing this at 120,,, http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2013022800/USA_HGT_500mb_120.gif It's a better run than 12z especially for richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 168 hr crushes you guys with 60-75 kts at H85 and a 993 hPa sfc low off of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Nice EURO run. Snow areawide and it would break the streak in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 168 hr crushes you guys with 60-75 kts at H85 and a 993 hPa sfc low off of Hatteras. how many inches could this be? sorry to ask, ,pastor wants to know ballpark figure. thanks. Big meeting at church, been canceled once for sandy..live in columbia area, church southwest of baltimore betwn halto and columbia md. The event is being done by our kitchen help. a lot of prep has to be done. Appreciate any advise you an give.Much obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 168 hr crushes you guys with 60-75 kts at H85 and a 993 hPa sfc low off of Hatteras. how many inches could this be? sorry to ask, ,pastor wants to know ballpark figure. thanks. Big meeting at church, been canceled once for sandy..live in columbia area, church southwest of baltimore betwn halto and columbia md. The event is being done by our kitchen help. a lot of prep has to be done. Appreciate any advise you an give.Much obliged. Since you're a church guy, I'm gonna be nice. It's way too far out to be discussing details, especially given that this winter has featured plenty of fizzles. With the winter we've had, even 84 hours out isn't a safe time to firm up a storm. You should come back on Saturday and I'm sure we'll have a better handle on if a storm is even going to happen. I wouldn't even mention a storm to your pastor at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Since you're a church guy, I'm gonna be nice. It's way too far out to be discussing details, especially given that this winter has featured plenty of fizzles. With the winter we've had, even 84 hours out isn't a safe time to firm up a storm. You should come back on Saturday and I'm sure we'll have a better handle on if a storm is even going to happen. I wouldn't even mention a storm to your pastor at this time. thanks he already saw it on a site called weatherboy, which I have never heard of. I,l just keep reading , Thanks for the courtesy, though He emailed me and asked me how much, that is why I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 6z GFS has the storm, just way too far south still and off the coast. No turn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 6z GFS has the storm, just way too far south still and off the coast. No turn north. I think most will agree it's not a bad thing that the gfs is a wide swing south at this point. The euro made a mention in the LWX discussion. THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WAY TOO EARLY TO TAKE AN OPERATIONAL RUN VERBATIM /AKA THE 00Z ECMWF/...SO WILL SIMPLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOW AS THE DAYS PROGRESS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Pastor on a site called "weatherboy"... Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think most will agree it's not a bad thing that the gfs is a wide swing south at this point. The euro made a mention in the LWX discussion. THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WAY TOO EARLY TO TAKE AN OPERATIONAL RUN VERBATIM /AKA THE 00Z ECMWF/...SO WILL SIMPLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOW AS THE DAYS PROGRESS. && Agreed. For me, the bigger takeaway is that the storm exists on all the majors at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Euro gives BWI .37" qpf while surface temps are +3.5-+3.9C nice little spring rain IAD gets .61" with surface 1.9-2.8C so they'd get some white rain/rain it needs to bomb or it does us no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 0 inches would still be a good forecast. Not much support for a big storm, IMO. It's there in a few places, but I'd like to see some plurality before I hop on this train. This is it for me. If this one doesn't pan out, bring on some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 looks like this is a do or die storm. Both models end winter after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 6z GFS has the storm, just way too far south still and off the coast. No turn north. I checked the DGEX and NOGAPS and they miss us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 thanks he already saw it on a site called weatherboy, which I have never heard of. I,l just keep reading , Thanks for the courtesy, though He emailed me and asked me how much, that is why I asked. I'd say he has a pretty good chance of getting 5-7 inches in the backend.......of the storm. Lot's of blowing with this event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I checked the DGEX and NOGAPS and they miss us too How about UKMET and JMA? Further north maybe. I just have to wonder if the GFS could pan out with that bowling ball rolling down and off the coast of SC. This winter I guess I know the answer already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 HPC leaning on Euro ENS for next week..with sensible adjustments to maybe compensate for possible overphasing noted on Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Hard to believe that a storm will move that far southeastward. My guess is that the storm will trend more to the north as we get closer to the event. Now whether that means a good thing for the Mid Atlantic is still open to conjecture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Pastor on a site called "weatherboy"... Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 looks like this is a do or die storm. Both models end winter after the storm good....it's about that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Having a BN March in which DT gets a big snowstorm while we get light rain will just be a fitting nutpunch to end this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1145 AM EST WED 27 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 01/1100Z MARCH 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-089I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- A. P-99/ 125.0W/ 01/0000Z B. NOAA9 18WSC TRACK99 C. 28/1900Z D. DROPS EVERY 150NM ALONG TRACK BETWEEN 150.OW AND 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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