Heisy Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 12z EURO ens look much better though imo, more signal for a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 18z GFS so far looks meh...Not like it matters Might wanna check again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Might wanna check again looks terrible thru 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GFS is trying...won't get us there, but it's better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 looks terrible thru 162 Compared to 12z, no it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Compared to 12z, no it doesn't. mm, ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 eh, gfs pushed the track further south. Vort looks better but without any help from phasing its going to roll off the coast like a gutter ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 eh, gfs pushed the track further south. Vort looks better but without any help from phasing its going to roll off the coast like a gutter ball. gfs doesnt understand phasing. la la lock it up. #coldrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 gfs doesnt understand phasing. la la lock it up. #coldrain #coldrain for you. My massive 400' of elevation = #pastejob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 eh, gfs pushed the track further south. Vort looks better but without any help from phasing its going to roll off the coast like a gutter ball. 0z will have purples over us. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 0z will have purples over us. Mark my words. We both know the off and on dream runs will randomly continue. When the gfs, euro, nam'd, rap, sref, rgem, jma, arw, c'est emcee, hrrrrrrr, nograsp, and craps all show a bomb with a 6 hour lead....maybe....just maybe....i'll be a believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 0z will have purples over us. Mark my words. I hope not but this looks like one of those systems that the models might lock in on early, hold, and then iron out the nitty gritty on game day. Great potential, but (obviously) maybe too much too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Things I love: Snow Things I hate: Potential Add pattern to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 There are far more gfs members that wind this thing up into a storm for the region than don't. They do it at different times over about a 24 hour period, but the op doesn't have much company with the off the coast version. I think that is significant. I think at this stage you go with the majority of model solutions. I'd like to see how many ec members have a sig storm. Not the mean, just how many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 There are far more gfs members that wind this thing up into a storm for the region than don't. They do it at different times over about a 24 hour period, but the op doesn't have much company with the off the coast version. I think that is significant. I think at this stage you go with the majority of model solutions. I'd like to see how many ec members have a sig storm. Not the mean, just how many. Certainly more ensemble members are a bit wrapped up than previous runs like 6z and 12z. Op looks about the weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Certainly more ensemble members are a bit wrapped up than previous runs like 6z and 12z. Op looks about the weakest. Do you see ec ens members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Do you see ec ens members? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Do you see ec ens members? From Quincy in the SNE thread -- European ensembles are further southeast. Actually looks more like a lower Appalachians/Virginia snow storm, if taken literally. There's obviously still a lot of time to get into a closer range and increase confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 From Quincy in the SNE thread -- We need a Va-Md, middle Appalachians snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We need a Va-Md, middle Appalachians snow storm. not at 7-8 days out we don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 not at 7-8 days out we don't I thought you quit. I know what you're saying. I'm talking a final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 While we all wait on the GFS, I have a question. Did we have models in 1993? If so, how did they model the Superstorm at 7 days? I know that one showed up early as I can remember forecasts days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I thought you quit. I know what you're saying. I'm talking a final result. I said I thought the pattern would not support a storm and the only way we get one was a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 While we all wait on the GFS, I have a question. Did we have models in 1993? If so, how did they model the Superstorm at 7 days? I know that one showed up early as I can remember forecasts days in advance. no internet back then but I remember 5 days out the computers they did have (LFM?-ask Wes, he'll know) were advertising a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 While we all wait on the GFS, I have a question. Did we have models in 1993? If so, how did they model the Superstorm at 7 days? I know that one showed up early as I can remember forecasts days in advance. European had it 10 days out. I was a coop student at the NWS. I went to briefings every day. No one was ready to believe it. Then it lost the system for one day and everyone thought the GFS (AVN) was right. Then both had it and they decided to believe it! Was amazing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The day 7-8 storm is the best shot we've had all year. If it goes wiff, than DCA doesn't even deserve the 1.5" they've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 European had it 10 days out. I was a coop student at the NWS. I went to briefings every day. No one was ready to believe it. Then it lost the system for one day and everyone thought the GFS (AVN) was right. Then both had it and they decided to believe it! Was amazing to see. I think it would be awesome to have an absolute monster to track for a week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think it would be awesome to have an absolute monster to track for a week plus.the last day the briefing was packed. TV cameras and everyone. Louis Uccelini ran the show for the forecast dept in Camp Springs MD. I remember the craziness. It was fun. Some old guys were yelling that the forecasters were not loud enough. Standing room only! It was crazy but fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 the last day the briefing was packed. TV cameras and everyone. Louis Uccelini ran the show for the forecast dept in Camp Springs MD. I remember the craziness. It was fun. Some old guys were yelling that the forecasters were not loud enough. Standing room only! It was crazy but fun. I don't see how that storm isn't the number one for any weather enthusiast. I guess if you didn't experience it first hand it might not mean as much, but, my God, wow. I experienced single digit temps, sustained winds of near 50 for hours and 26 inches of snow......in the middle of March. That storm fascinates me. I wish I had had the experience of watching it unfold in the days leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think it would be awesome to have an absolute monster to track for a week plus. Were you not around in 09-10? Those locked in pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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