WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 NAVGEM, just for fun. nvg10.500.174.namer.gif Is that the new NOGAPS? 6z DGEX crushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is that the new NOGAPS? 6z DGEX crushes us. yes 4dvar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ian loves him some GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 18z GFS is going to crush us. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 18z GFS is going to crush us. Mark my words. purples or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Sounds like I need to be watching closer than I have been the last couple of days. Despite being a little east of where we watn it, the euro look is worth watching. I am not going to feign disinterest....But even with the suppression, I hate these storms, because we all know what happens..NJ and SNE get killed and we get pixie dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 18z GFS is going to crush us. Mark my words. Even with the Euro's higher resolution it still has a bias to over amplify...I like the GFS to take the lead here...until GFS gets on board I am a nonbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 DT is already in aleet mode for MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 DT is already in aleet mode for MA. until he shifts it north in a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 DT is already in aleet mode for MA. not surprising since he is president of the euro hugging movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I am not going to feign disinterest....But even with the suppression, I hate these storms, because we all know what happens..NJ and SNE get killed and we get pixie dust Going by what the bulk of the models are giving us, I just don't see SNE in the game here. Our most likely negative outcome is that this thing just doesn't wrap up until it is well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Going by what the bulk of the models are giving us, I just don't see SNE in the game here. Our most likely negative outcome is that this thing just doesn't wrap up until it is well off the coast. the block is powerful, but SNE is always in the game for a reverse bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Going by what the bulk of the models are giving us, I just don't see SNE in the game here. Our most likely negative outcome is that this thing just doesn't wrap up until it is well off the coast. With the confluence up that way, I tend to agree. FWIW, none of the GFS ensemble members have it so far north that we get missed and SNE gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 not surprising since he is president of the euro hugging movement DT's FB M.O. has become pretty clear..Make a long detailed analysis after every single model run and in the very fine print, mention that it is just model interpretation and not a forecast...at least he does a good job trying to explain things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 the block is powerful, but SNE is always in the game for a reverse bust agreed.. the storm is a week out. not hard to get a change that allows it to go a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? The phase was just a bit off to tug the storm closer to you guys and to the coast for that matter. So you could hope for a more connected phase lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? Psychosis. I'm not allowing myself to be lured into any solution that is both wet and cold until I'm looking at my thermometer at about 27, and watching dark greens roll into my area on radar. Don't get me wrong, I want it to happen, but a month ago I said that this would be the final kick, a strong storm modeled right up to about 24 hours that just disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? At least one of the ens members had such a solution. This is a colder solution than the 00Z, we need something in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? because sooner or later one of these things has to work out, might as well be now. Good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 In seriousness though, the one reason I could think of, would be as we head into March the tendancy for the wavelenghts to shorten would aid in a more consolidated H5 solution versus the GFS that continues to play the H5 low over the Lakes/Northeast off the vort diving in under it and running interference. Sesonal trends this year argue the GFS is right, but the time of year might argue this time could be different. ALso the PNA will help this time, and allow this to dig more. THose are my 2 reasons for hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? I would think the entire track of the sw is in question at this point. A whole lot of stuff has to happen in front of it. Lotsa wobbling around @ h5 to our north for the next 4-5 days. I've been watching the weekend just in case a miracle happened but never was and isn't currently a remote possibility. However, the evolution @ 500 has been changing quite a bit every single run. It's well within reason to think that the squashing confluence the gfs has been showing won't be an issue at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? seasonal trends tend to wane come March meaning it's a whole new ballgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 LWX afternoon AFD mentions the 00z EC solution and potential for late season snow (to be monitored)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 seasonal trends tend to wane come March meaning it's a whole new ballgame Considering we've had almost 2 complete back to back no win seasons the only new ballgame is one that we win. So, we are either going to be the 76 bucs redux or the 90 patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Considering we've had almost 2 complete back to back no win seasons the only new ballgame is one that we win. So, we are either going to be the 76 bucs redux or the 90 patriots. well, my thinking was, most late season events (end of Feb-March) seem to be contrary to what went on during the heart of the winter season even 09/10 saw a change in the pattern come the end of Feb (which ended up screwing us, but you get the point) so that's basically my thinking on why Matt should hold onto some weenie hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I would think the entire track of the sw is in question at this point. A whole lot of stuff has to happen in front of it. Lotsa wobbling around @ h5 to our north for the next 4-5 days. I've been watching the weekend just in case a miracle happened but never was and isn't currently a remote possibility. However, the evolution @ 500 has been changing quite a bit every single run. It's well within reason to think that the squashing confluence the gfs has been showing won't be an issue at all. Good point. Several of these storms that have been advertised and faded and each one did because the 500 pattern that became reality was nothing like what was modeled a week out. If the pattern of the winter holds, the trough will be either right over or east of us, and any storms will be by us before they can become anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Is there any reason other than wishcasting why we might think the trough will go negative sooner? The chances that the upper levels evolve exactly as modeled 8 days out is approaching 0. So, in the variety of solutions offered, some could at least have a different interaction between our vort and the blocking upstream. And its boring to talk about storms that slide off the coast from a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Good point. Several of these storms that have been advertised and faded and each one did because the 500 pattern that became reality was nothing like what was modeled a week out. If the pattern of the winter holds, the trough will be either right over or east of us, and any storms will be by us before they can become anything worthwhile. It is noteworthy that all globals are showing the same track give or take right now. CMC and JMA (among others) look just like the gfs and euro in some respects. There is very good consensus that this particular shortwave is real and it's track is more than a fantasy. Doesn't mean we cash in or anything but I'm modestly confident that it will be a close call even if it's a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 almost all the ingredients are there...-EPO/+PNA, split flow, west based block that is breaking down...The one thing we are missing is a legit 50-50/NF trough...or some sort of displaced PV....I think if we had that, the trough might cut off sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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