showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Don't mind them...seems like a build up of snow drought frustration along with what may be another fantasy whiff in the long range. You seem to have carved an odd niche in specializing on 6z run commentary, which is more disconcerting in general than your last few comments today. Not that I am a big fan of the off runs but with my schedule the 06Z runs are about the only time I have to really spend some time looking over the models. Would prefer to spend more time on the major runs but most days I am lucky to even get a glance at them as they are coming out and not 6 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Whatever. I apologize to everyone on here that was offended for my trying to learn by discussing on a weather board what a model run might imply. A model run for 8 days out no less that the likelihood of it verifying is slim at best. God forbid anyone pee on their fantasy snowstorm. Might just have been the way you did it. Talking about warm noses this far out is pretty silly any time! Keep calm! Besides if you're in Hanover you're technically out of subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anyone have an analog for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We're doing it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We're doing it again... Nah, only thing were doing is saying there is consensus for some sort of storm next week. It might track nw, overhead, suppress south, amplify, or shear out. It might snow, rain, or do nothing. Pretty solid analysis and I didn't use a laser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Nah, only thing were doing is saying there is consensus for some sort of storm next week. It might track nw, overhead, suppress south, amplify, or shear out. It might snow, rain, or do nothing. Pretty solid analysis and I didn't use a laser. Don't forget boundary issues. That's covered too. Eight days from a phantom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We're doing it again... 1. We admitted that we were powerless over obsessing about weather models that promise HECS 8 days out, that our lives had become unmanagable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If the Euro is right next week, I will join its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anyone have an analog for this? I can't find one but it could become one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If the Euro is right next week, I will join its bias. Euro's big wins come like this. La la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Euro's big wins come like this. La la lock it up Eh, not really. If the ball was rolling out of the sw then the gfs could be turned off for a week. NS sw's are the wurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Short-range note: GFS still down with 2 rounds of flurries. First overnight tonight and then 2nd tomorrow late afternoon/evening. Pieces of vort moving around the big ULL in NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That's a potent looking storm on the maps I can access. I'm guessing a storm that strong would produce some pretty high precip totals somewhere. Whatever the final result is, maybe we get lucky and the first couple weeks of March produce some fun here, and then we can all move into spring with a better disposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GFS remains consistent. I would be shocked if the euro shows another amped up monster. GFS really likes the idea of flatter flow and not enough amplification in front to let the vort dig and turn the corner. However, a more amplified solution is far from off the table. It's nice to see the vort and slp going below us and not passing overhead or to our nw. That's a great sign. What isn't so great is squashed flow leading in. Only half a million runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GFS remains consistent. I would be shocked if the euro shows another amped up monster. GFS really likes the idea of flatter flow and not enough amplification in front to let the vort dig and turn the corner. However, a more amplified solution is far from off the table. It's nice to see the vort and slp going below us and not passing overhead or to our nw. That's a great sign. What isn't so great is squashed flow leading in. Only half a million runs to go. That confluence on the GFS is a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That confluence on the GFS is a mofo I suppose it's totally plausible but it's weird seeing a lp track in a straight line from Seatlle to Savannah, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I suppose it's totally plausible but it's weird seeing a lp track in a straight line from Seatlle to Savannah, GA. That may very well be, but it would be totally consistent with our seeming lack of ability to get any measureable precip with cold air around. This is, as you say, a very long way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Great pattern on the GFS Day 11+ If only it could have come 1 month ago Certainly looks quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 That confluence on the GFS is a mofo Difference between last nights EUro, and the GFS and every other run of the euro for that matter, is how they handle the H5 low over the lakes. Most of the guidance keeps the low diving into the trough seperate and suppresses it under the flow of the lakes low. The Euro phases and merges the two and thus we get a monster. Obviously given this years trends we know what is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Great pattern on the GFS Day 11+ If only it could have come 1 month ago Certainly looks quite cold. Then we have a chance. I've seen several reference on this board to "monster" storm chances, references to past storms like the Superstorm. Now the Euro spits out what would be a monster. You feel like a biggie is at least within the realm? Even without the snow, I'm hoping for a cool spring. I'm just in no hurry to get to temps over 80. In fact, if we never get to 80 again, I'll be fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Great pattern on the GFS Day 11+ If only it could have come 1 month ago Certainly looks quite cold. Especially when you have a 1040 H nosing in in Mid March 40s FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Then we have a chance. I've seen several reference on this board to "monster" storm chances, references to past storms like the Superstorm. Now the Euro spits out what would be a monster. You feel like a biggie is at least within the realm? Sure, a biggie is in the realm. Remember the D+11 analogs for this weekend time frame had a number of KU storms on the list. For this Mar 6-7 threat, I think the most reasonable scenario that gives us snow is that the storm passes to our south and we get a general 1-3" event. Northern stream has won every time this year, hard to imagine that this time it will slow down enough for a Euro-like event to happen. I think 2 of the 6z GEFS members had a big storm solution. Euro ensemble mean certainly didn't support the Op. So, still a long shot in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Sure, a biggie is in the realm. Remember the D+11 analogs for this weekend time frame had a number of KU storms on the list. For this Mar 6-7 threat, I think the most reasonable scenario that gives us snow is that the storm passes to our south and we get a general 1-3" event. Northern stream has won every time this year, hard to imagine that this time it will slow down enough for a Euro-like event to happen. I think 2 of the 6z GEFS members had a big storm solution. Euro ensemble mean certainly didn't support the Op. So, still a long shot in this case. I agree with the odds against an amped solution. NS only sw's have a terrible history of turning into something big. I'm realistically rooting for a tight ball with nice compact comma hitting us and secretly rooting for the euro to score a coup. I think it's pretty cool that the -nao/blocking regime verified. GFS hinted at it for quite some time. It's looking to be pretty dominant and that will be tough to break down. Could take the first 3 weeks of March to hit an extended aoa normal temp regime. Who knows about snow. Never in a million years would I have though going into this season that we couldn't squeak out a measly 2 damn inches @ dca to get out of the funk. But here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think it's pretty cool that the -nao/blocking regime verified. GFS hinted at it for quite some time. It's looking to be pretty dominant and that will be tough to break down. Could take the first 3 weeks of March to hit an extended aoa normal temp regime. Who knows about snow. Never in a million years would I have though going into this season that we couldn't squeak out a measly 2 damn inches @ dca to get out of the funk. But here we are. If the GFS is in the ballpark on temps from Days 8-15, we're not just below normal, but WELL below normal. Solid -5 to -10F range for the first 2 weeks of the month. As for 2"...I haven't had a 1.5" snowfall in over 2 years IMBY. I figured this year would be below normal, but didn't think we'd get skunked so horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Great pattern on the GFS Day 11+ If only it could have come 1 month ago Certainly looks quite cold. I think the day 7-8 chance is possible but I am skepticle of how the euro last night merges the two h5 lows to pull it off. The mid March period I do think we get something to pop before the blocking breaks down. Problem is will it be too late for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anyone have an analog for this? NATL_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_183.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think the day 7-8 chance is possible but I am skepticle of how the euro last night merges the two h5 lows to pull it off. The mid March period I do think we get something to pop before the blocking breaks down. Problem is will it be too late for our area. how much did you get 3/16/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 how much did you get 3/16/07? I was living in Westminster then, we got about 4" there... I think where I live now got about 6". Surface temps weren't an issue with that one up here at all...but the front stalled and took forever to get through, once it did, the snow accumulated fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GEFS generally pretty supportive of the Op, however most of the members give us a least some precip. 2 show wrapped up SECS ala the Euro, but 2 also show hardly any storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I was living in Westminster then, we got about 4" there... I think where I live now got about 6". Surface temps weren't an issue with that one up here at all...but the front stalled and took forever to get through, once it did, the snow accumulated fast. for me/ian etc it isnt just an issue of elevation/latitude/longitude in terms of accumulating snow, but rather how storms tend to evolve after ~March 10th....4/9/96, 4/9/00, 4/7/03, all pummeled the coastal plain of 40N...and all 3 probably gave you snow...IIRC, 4/7/03 gave you 6"+...I'm really not that concerned about time that much if we can keep the sick pattern (especially the PAC)...I do fully realize that probably means mix/rain/sun angle for me, but if you get ++SN you get ++SN and 0' elevation can get pasted during the day on April 1st if you get 1/8mi viz...which means I am going to hang in there until around April 15th and drive myself even crazier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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