showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The panel in question from the Euro that Will, Ji and Wx referenced: With my limited access to Euro maps I may be off but for those in the DC and Baltimore corridor that look to me, with the easterly fetch off the ocean, suggests major BL issues until you get out a good bit to the north and west of the cities or have some decent elevation to play with. I would think this basically implies a mostly sleet and potentially freezing rain storm for the 95 corridor. There would probably be some front end snow as well as back-end snow as the winds shifted though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Just saw the euro. Holy crap. Looks like an Ashe wed replay only a little colder. Given how the h5 has looked on the ensembles the last few days I've been waiting for an op run to show this kind of solution. Given the pattern this is def one of the permutations. Now if we could just buy this and lock it in wonder how much we could raise in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Just saw the euro. Holy crap. Looks like an Ashe wed replay only a little colder. Given how the h5 has looked on the ensembles the last few days I've been waiting for an op run to show this kind of solution. Given the pattern this is def one of the permutations. Now if we could just buy this and lock it in wonder how much we could raise in this forum. You don't think there would be issues with a warm nose nudging in at some level? Not that it matters on a day 8 model run I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 With my limited access to Euro maps I may be off but for those in the DC and Baltimore corridor that look to me, with the easterly fetch off the ocean, suggests major BL issues until you get out a good bit to the north and west of the cities or have some decent elevation to play with. I would think this basically implies a mostly sleet and potentially freezing rain storm for the 95 corridor. There would probably be some front end snow as well as back-end snow as the winds shifted though. Details 8 days out is crazy but as is dc would have mixing issues during the height of the storm but some front end snow and a ton of back end as the low drifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Just saw the euro. Holy crap. Looks like an Ashe wed replay only a little colder. Given how the h5 has looked on the ensembles the last few days I've been waiting for an op run to show this kind of solution. Given the pattern this is def one of the permutations. Now if we could just buy this and lock it in wonder how much we could raise in this forum. wow....just saw this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 With my limited access to Euro maps I may be off but for those in the DC and Baltimore corridor that look to me, with the easterly fetch off the ocean, suggests major BL issues until you get out a good bit to the north and west of the cities or have some decent elevation to play with. I would think this basically implies a mostly sleet and potentially freezing rain storm for the 95 corridor. There would probably be some front end snow as well as back-end snow as the winds shifted though. Its 8 days out and you are drilling down to that? We have been over two years since an area-wide WSW criteria event of any kind. If that map yields 2-4 inches of anything frozen this deep into March, its a win. For gawdssake, it probably won't even be there at the run this afternoon. First things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Details 8 days out is crazy but as is dc would have mixing issues during the height of the storm but some front end snow and a ton of back end as the low drifts east. I have seen several storms similar in setup throughout the years where you would think major snowstorm and yet besides some front end snow and a little backend we end up with a major sleet storm with highs in the mid to upper 20's. But again we are talking 8 days out so it is pretty irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 6z GFS kinda has it too, just slides it off the coast south of us, but it also has a storm. Maybe worth keeping half an eye on. Beats tracking 40 degree highs and clouds anyway. Need consistency before giving this any hope of actually happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Need consistency before giving this any hope of actually happening Its consistent in that at least it is showing a system in our part of the country too. Better than it showing dry and cold with everything squished (if you are irrationally hoping for a storm...which I am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This should be called "please no new thread storm". Leave it be! Anyway, great eye candy for now. Pattern is ripening. Interested to see if GFS has anything close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Its 8 days out and you are drilling down to that? We have been over two years since an area-wide WSW criteria event of any kind. If that map yields 2-4 inches of anything frozen this deep into March, its a win. For gawdssake, it probably won't even be there at the run this afternoon. First things first. Just discussing what the model itself showed. Considering that this is 8 days out I would think you would understand this is nothing more then speculation and learning how to read and decipher what the model itself shows. Do I need to put a disclaimer on everything I post even for the most obvious things? Let me know if that would satisfy you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 You don't think there would be issues with a warm nose nudging in at some level? Not that it matters on a day 8 model run I guess. I don't mind analyzing a model run even if its unlikely to happen. It's a learning experience. Your right the low gets a bit to close but a few factors to consider. These march storms can be very intense and wrap up tight. At some point the low occludes and that cuts off waa. Also these lows that cut off and stall then drift east like Ashe wed 62 and march 58 can produce major back end snow. Usually with a storm moving on a northward trajectory if it passes too close you dry slot or change over then by the time the low moves far enough east it's also north of us and its over. With a storm sliding east we do get wrap around. So yes dc would have mixing issues but this would still end up a big snow there and historic for iAd and jyo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Details 8 days out is crazy but as is dc would have mixing issues during the height of the storm but some front end snow and a ton of back end as the low drifts east. Low drifts southeast....take a look at 192-216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I have seen several storms similar in setup throughout the years where you would think major snowstorm and yet besides some front end snow and a little backend we end up with a major sleet storm with highs in the mid to upper 20's. But again we are talking 8 days out so it is pretty irrelevant. please stop posting....nobody needs your insight on some occurrence 100 miles away from you in some random storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We should analyze every reason why it will fail and hug the failure and not the model runs! If it comes true we will be surprised and not disappointed when it fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 please stop posting....nobody needs your insight on some occurrence 100 miles away from you in some random storm... You first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I have seen several storms similar in setup throughout the years where you would think major snowstorm and yet besides some front end snow and a little backend we end up with a major sleet storm with highs in the mid to upper 20's. But again we are talking 8 days out so it is pretty irrelevant. Name the last "set up" like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This should be called "please no new thread storm". Leave it be! Anyway, great eye candy for now. Pattern is ripening. Interested to see if GFS has anything close. Lets all stop with this superstitious nonsense. And besides, the storm won't even be there in that form on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Hmmm...Euro ensembles have a baggy low offshore at the same time. GEFS sort of have something. Certainly a time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ash Wednesday storm had 13" at BWI......... a repeat of that would rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 this storm has slowly come north over the past 2+ days of runs one would have to think it will continue to move north, but the dark and pretty colors over us from massive qpf are nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 sweet, another day8 storm that probably wont happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ash Wednesday storm had 13" at BWI......... a repeat of that would rock. I'm sure a March Hecs is the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 this storm has slowly come north over the past 2+ days of runs one would have to think it will continue to move north, but the dark and pretty colors over us from massive qpf are nice to see Yes the idea that the euro has the phase idea correct is hilarious. We know as depicted it is going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Euro has had the widest swings. It went from a se coastal, to a weak overhead, and now a cutoff phase. GFS has been more consistent irt sw track and slp track. Sweet run to look at but it's really on an island with that solution. Pretty jacked up h5 config in front that is far from being resolved. I've seen many more nw-se or w-e solutions than sw-ne tracks. The euro has been the only one to show any type of classic amplification and it's been 2 runs so far (0z tues and 0z wed) Yesterday @ 12z was very similar to the gfs solution. Talking about mixing, bl temps, precip totals, and all that is wasted analysis at this point. Deducing the most likely vort and/or ull track and strength would be best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Just discussing what the model itself showed. Considering that this is 8 days out I would think you would understand this is nothing more then speculation and learning how to read and decipher what the model itself shows. Do I need to put a disclaimer on everything I post even for the most obvious things? Let me know if that would satisfy you. maybe you can also get someone from Mt. Tolland to come down and point out the blindingly obvious point that Dc to Balt might have some boundary issues on a modeled storm the second week of March ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm not gonna lie... I kinda like how the storm on the Euro says "Sorry, not this time" to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 maybe you can also get someone from Mt. Tolland to come down and point out the blindingly obvious point that Dc to Balt might have some boundary issues on a modeled storm the second week of March ... Whatever. I apologize to everyone on here that was offended for my trying to learn by discussing on a weather board what a model run might imply. A model run for 8 days out no less that the likelihood of it verifying is slim at best. God forbid anyone pee on their fantasy snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lets all stop with this superstitious nonsense. And besides, the storm won't even be there in that form on the next run. I was just playing around. I'm far from superstitious. Weather will do whatever the hell it wants....and hit Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Whatever. I apologize to everyone on here that was offended for my trying to learn by discussing on a weather board what a model run might imply. A model run for 8 days out no less that the likelihood of it verifying is slim at best. God forbid anyone pee on their fantasy snowstorm. Don't mind them...seems like a build up of snow drought frustration along with what may be another fantasy whiff in the long range. You seem to have carved an odd niche in specializing on 6z run commentary, which is more disconcerting in general than your last few comments today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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