yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You mean this rain? TUE 12Z 26-FEB 3.3 2.3 1003 97 79 0.55 547 545 I am guessing thts KDCA? I meant more for MRB and Stauton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 MRB 0.7 -3.1 1006 96 99 0.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The grip of the gl low can't be denied. Gfs gives the impression that it "trended better" but it didn't irt our snow chances with the coastal. The gl low needs to release the grip and the coastal needs to become its own entity south of us to get temps right. This is a tall tall order. It wouldn't hurt for the coastal to end up further east and stronger of course. These are the things we should focus on and not the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lookee there. It's a moisture starved clipper. Actual ground hog day should have been replaced with the movie Ground Hog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am guessing thts KDCA? I meant more for MRB and Stauton Sorry, yes it was but TU took care of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lookee there. It's a moisture starved clipper. Actual ground hog day should have been replaced with the movie Ground Hog day. I posted about this after the 18z run. This is a good setup to break the streak. Having a stacked 500 and 850 low spinning and decaying in that position + a vort riding underneath is a good setup for us. It's not really a clipper at all. A weak surface low can pop in front and juice up as it moves underneath. This is something that should be watched as we move forward. Much less complicated than the mess before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z EURO looks like warning criteria snow for North Carolina and Virginia. hour 123-135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z EURO looks like warning criteria snow for North Carolina and Virginia. hour 123-135. If that's warning event--- we've dropped the bar. Looked to me like a quick 1-3 east of the BR with MAYBE 4 in the MTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 why do you always take objection to discussions of realistic chances of snow? as long as reality isn't part of the discussion, you're fine there does come a time when we really need to discuss realistic chances of snow vs. pure weenie hope and prayer and if realistic discussions of snow chances makes me miserable, then I hope you feel better now that you got that off your chest come on man, it is just the weather Lol...ok mitch...i will accept that I am the only one who thinks you are continually pounding home the same point over and over...its on me...tell me your thoughts on the 0z euro please....im on the edge of my seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What happened to the southern stream.? Just vanishes after march 1. Too much PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...ok mitch...i will accept that I am the only one who thinks you are continually pounding home the same point over and over...its on me...tell me your thoughts on the 0z euro please....im on the edge of my seat see, you're the typical example of someone who starts an argument and then says "I don't want to argue" I was posting on wx, and you didn't like the fact that we're not getting snow and come in with unnecessary comments that are not wx related hey, it's not my fault you're not a happy camper in Columbus (your posts in the banter thread explains your misery) and if you think you'll save yourself by suggesting other people think this or that about me, you'll be sadly disappointed with that failed argument there are a lot of people on this board; the fact that people come on here and post things you would prefer not to see i.e. reality snow chances, you'll be sadly disappointed in the future just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 see, you're the typical example of someone who starts an argument and then says "I don't want to argue" I was posting on wx, and you didn't like the fact that we're not getting snow and come in with unnecessary comments that are not wx related hey, it's not my fault you're not a happy camper in Columbus (your posts in the banter thread explains your misery) and if you think you'll save yourself by suggesting other people think this or that about me, you'll be sadly disappointed with that failed argument there are a lot of people on this board; the fact that people come on here and post things you would prefer not to see i.e. reality snow chances, you'll be sadly disappointed in the future just sayin' Youre right....I cant compete with your ability to argue your point....simply fabulous and incredibly articulate. I have no chance...i will slump back into my obvious misery and continue to read your valuable insight and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Youre right....I cant compete with your ability to argue your point....simply fabulous and incredibly articulate. I have no chance...i will slump back into my obvious misery and continue to read your valuable insight and analysis. and just think, none of this was really necessary, was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What happened to the southern stream.? Just vanishes after march 1. Too much PNA? We need several moving parts to line up correctly and this year there is always one out of line. Luckily as the stj dies again its into march and with a trough like that a northern stream vort can dive in and do the trick. Models won't pick up on that yet. They will key on the dominant low over New England and squash everything but odds are something in that 10 day window pops up. Then we just have to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I posted about this after the 18z run. This is a good setup to break the streak. Having a stacked 500 and 850 low spinning and decaying in that position + a vort riding underneath is a good setup for us. It's not really a clipper at all. A weak surface low can pop in front and juice up as it moves underneath. This is something that should be watched as we move forward. Much less complicated than the mess before it. I agree that has some promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What happened to the southern stream.? Just vanishes after march 1. Too much PNA? Its just such a disaster, words fail. Especially when I read on a few more posts and PSU is talking about the northern stream again, and digging, and needing luck, and Bob getting fired up earlier in the thread over another potential car-topper to chase for 168 hours hoping against hope for one inch. Its all so much bullSNO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't.see why so much dark side posting is going on. We have a messy blocky pattern with cuttoff ull's taking their time moving around and an aob temp pattern for what looks like 2 weeks. Yea we can get totally shutout or we can get a decent hit. It's not the year for big coastals. At least not for us. But man, if were gonna get late snow the pattern is fairly ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its just such a disaster, words fail. Especially when I read on a few more posts and PSU is talking about the northern stream again, and digging, and needing luck, and Bob getting fired up earlier in the thread over another potential car-topper to chase for 168 hours hoping against hope for one inch. Its all so much bullSNO. Your right its depressing but were not going to get a great perfect setup this year. What we do get are chances that are flawed but with some luck it's possible. 99 was a Nina and we got lucky In march. Twice if u lived nw of dc. Last winter was just not going to work the pattern was so hostile luck wasn't going to save us. This year we have had chances. None were great but enough that we could have lucked into something but we have been in a historic rut. That has to end sometime. Maybe we get lucky with this early march Pna nao tandem. It's enough of a chance to be worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't.see why so much dark side posting is going on. We have a messy blocky pattern with cuttoff ull's taking their time moving around and an aob temp pattern for what looks like 2 weeks. Yea we can get totally shutout or we can get a decent hit. It's not the year for big coastals. At least not for us. But man, if were gonna get late snow the pattern is fairly ripe. I will reign it in...but I am not as sanguine as you about the hopes for something to come together to give us an inch or two. We've done chased that this winter...all winter. And pretty generally even that has been fruitless. After two years of this, hard to keep an even keel. That's why, I would submit, the "dark side" posting. I am darth vadar at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I guess the 0z Euro and 0z GFS sort of keep hope alive for Feb 30, but it looks like a set up to me (based on GFS and Euro) where we'll probably be cold with scattered snow showers for a few days. Probably as we get closer the models will key in on one vort or another and we might have 1-2-maybe 3 chances at adding 0.5" to our seasonal totals. Certainly seems like an active pattern, so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Your right its depressing but were not going to get a great perfect setup this year. What we do get are chances that are flawed but with some luck it's possible. 99 was a Nina and we got lucky In march. Twice if u lived nw of dc. Last winter was just not going to work the pattern was so hostile luck wasn't going to save us. This year we have had chances. None were great but enough that we could have lucked into something but we have been in a historic rut. That has to end sometime. Maybe we get lucky with this early march Pna nao tandem. It's enough of a chance to be worth tracking. Well said and I feel 100% the same way as you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I guess the 0z Euro and 0z GFS sort of keep hope alive for Feb 30, but it looks like a set up to me (based on GFS and Euro) where we'll probably be cold with scattered snow showers for a few days. Probably as we get closer the models will key in on one vort or another and we might have 1-2-maybe 3 chances at adding 0.5" to our seasonal totals. Certainly seems like an active pattern, so that's something. What does the Euro show for Mon night into Tues? I have no access to any precip progs. I thought the GFS was interesting for that time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What does the Euro show for Mon night into Tues? I have no access to any precip progs. I thought the GFS was interesting for that time as well. You'll have to ask Bob or Ian or Ji. I don't pay for that sort of info. CAD looks much weaker on Tuesday than it does tomorrow. You might still have a chance for some brief mixing out there, but I think most of us are probably hosed. The best chance we have to get anything on Tuesday is to hope for a long ball (sounds familiar right?) and have the low transfer to the coast very early and weaken the OH Valley low. A couple GFS ensemble members show this scenario, so it's not impossible, but not very likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I will reign it in...but I am not as sanguine as you about the hopes for something to come together to give us an inch or two. We've done chased that this winter...all winter. And pretty generally even that has been fruitless. After two years of this, hard to keep an even keel. That's why, I would submit, the "dark side" posting. I am darth vadar at this point. I understand. I guess I see things different irt to tracking. It's like hunting or fishing in a way. Always out searching for the big one but coming home empty handed or with a little one is part of the game and still fun enough to keep the hobby going. Once the season is closed i simply move onto other things. Season isn't closed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You'll have to ask Bob or Ian or Ji. I don't pay for that sort of info. CAD looks much weaker on Tuesday than it does tomorrow. You might still have a chance for some brief mixing out there, but I think most of us are probably hosed. The best chance we have to get anything on Tuesday is to hope for a long ball (sounds familiar right?) and have the low transfer to the coast very early and weaken the OH Valley low. A couple GFS ensemble members show this scenario, so it's not impossible, but not very likely either. Cold rain. Yay. I thought it looked good as well. But I am desparate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Cold rain. Yay. I thought it looked good as well. But I am desparate. 0z GFS had an earlier transfer to the coast than 6z, so it looked like a rain-to-snow event verbatim for maybe your area and points west and ends as flurries for the rest of us. I'd say that scenario is still on the table, but that's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I understand. I guess I see things different irt to tracking. It's like hunting or fishing in a way. Always out searching for the big one but coming home empty handed or with a little one is part of the game and still fun enough to keep the hobby going. Once the season is closed i simply move onto other things. Season isn't closed yet. Don't get me wrong...I love the tracking process. Generally. And am happy to watch the discussion unfold - and love (and learn from) your thoughts among several others'. But some payoff, at some point, would be really, REALLY nice. Tracking and seeing it pay off as "flakes in the air" in December I can sell to myself. Tracking and hoping for "flakes in the air" at the tail end of another mangled winter is frustrating. But I am certainly not arguing that it not be done... (And, like I said in banter thread...I am looking at the models as much for warm spring weather as for snow chances at this point...and pretty much neither are on the modeling. So I am doubly frustrated. But that's my own issue.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What does the Euro show for Mon night into Tues? I have no access to any precip progs. I thought the GFS was interesting for that time as well. Euro and GFS are a disaster for Mon night into Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 By the way, the 6z GFS loop is high comedy if you like to laugh to mask the pain at Great Lakes lows. Its a conga-line still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro and GFS are a disaster for Mon night into Tuesday Is it though? @ 126 the surface freezing is down to sw va and 850 into the NC mountains. It gets pushed back of course as precip moves up. But there's still a 1030 hp parked in an ok spot. This would likely be front end snow for some or most. How much and how quick it changes won't be known for days. Heck, nothing will be known for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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