psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 But last night it was a near beauty. Nice close ull tracking too far south but plenty juicy and amplified. I'm convinced we back into something weird and messy or get nothing this year. Lack of alignment with so many "ok" patterns and features pretty much says it all. Like I said before, this is the first time we have a block so it's reasonable to give a little more weight past d5 or so but not by much. I'm not giving up on it just saying the op run today was not good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if we waste this pattern and nothing happened. But this set up in March could lead to something crazy. It wouldn't shock me either if we got some kind of bomb along the East Coast that stalls out. yeah it's cutoff season or getting there but the solution is still whacked a bit. it looks better than 0z tho now that i look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm not giving up on it just saying the op run today was not good to me. I'm not giving up either. Not at all. But I have given up looking past d5 or so. At least nothing more than a quick glance or maybe a little more when you have runs like last nights 0z. euro ens are pretty sick though all the way to 360. Nothing but moisture across the south and sweet axis for like 3-4 days. I do agree that we stand a better chance at getting the monkey off the back vs shutout city. I'm just going to keep the laser in the closet until it's within a real range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 nightmare pattern. still a huge block at 360. cold rain forever. If something does happen that's marginal for dc might be a good time to visit parrs ridge. I'd host the blizzard party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 yeah it's cutoff season or getting there but the solution is still whacked a bit. it looks better than 0z tho now that i look. An ens mean could get that look by having a split in solutions. Perhaps some members develop the low faster and that's where the snow comes from. The low appears east on the mean because some members have a fish solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 yeah it's cutoff season or getting there but the solution is still whacked a bit. it looks better than 0z tho now that i look. It's hard to say why the precip expands west like it does with the first threat. Probably just a big spread in solutions? Ens think there' going to be 3-4 shots after that. I'm sure it's a messy mixed up bag but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If something does happen that's marginal for dc might be a good time to visit parrs ridge. I'd host the blizzard party. Unless we get a HECS my interest in snow is falling off a cliff at this time. I'm about 60/40 rooting for nothing here out tho if it's going to be cold I guess it should snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 IMHO chances of getting a 2" plus event in march. Dca 40% iAd 60% Bwi 55% Jyo. 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I know it seems silly to care but I would just feel better getting the 2" streak over with before the door is closed. I really don't want to start off next season with that being the talking point. I can see it now. Every day that goes by after dec 1st is going to have some old or noob updating the day count. I'm over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 IMHO chances of getting a 2" plus event in march. Dca 40% iAd 60% Bwi 55% Jyo. 65% Think we probably have a marginally higher than climo chance at least.. tho not sure it's double climo (for DC at least). Even in a "good" pattern it's hard to ignore all the missed ops of late. Suppose that means we're due.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Think we probably have a marginally higher than climo chance at least.. tho not sure it's double climo (for DC at least). Even in a "good" pattern it's hard to ignore all the missed ops of late. Suppose that means we're due.. We may end it next week. run isn't done yet but looks like the 18z gfs want's to split last nights 0z globals and roll the ball over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We deserve something big. Also wow it's cold windy rain out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The GFS IMO has been better at picking up long range threats, but worst withing 3 days. The fact that the GFS is showing the wave is def. a good sign. For me in Philly and you in DC what I am KIND of worried about is that the storm phases late like EURO. At least there is something legit to track on the models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The GFS IMO has been better at picking up long range threats, but worst withing 3 days. The fact that the GFS is showing the wave is def. a good sign. For me in Philly and you in DC what I am KIND of worried about is that the storm phases late like EURO. At least there is something legit to track on the models though. idk- ns vorts like this are subject to massive swings for the next 5 days no matter what. Subtle shifts in ridging and amplification make or break it pretty easily. This is a tiny bullseye too. I agree that the gfs has been sniffing a little better but the trackand strength is going to change more times than a newborn's diaper for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Unless we get a HECS my interest in snow is falling off a cliff at this time. I'm about 60/40 rooting for nothing here out tho if it's going to be cold I guess it should snow. Meteorological spring being 3 days away and we are cold and rain, I am ready for warm, though the outlook seems to be cold and wet. I agree, if it's cold, let it snow, otherwise let's forget about this winter and concentrate on other things, like severe spring. The peepers are calling and the tulips are budding. Cover them with snow or move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Meteorological spring being 3 days away and we are cold and rain, I am ready for warm, though the outlook seems to be cold and wet. I agree, if it's cold, let it snow, otherwise let's forget about this winter and concentrate on other things, like severe spring. The peepers are calling and the tulips are budding. Cover them with snow or move on. Well thanks for stating the obvious. No one wants cold without snow in spring, but then again you can't get snow without cold...so if it gets cold at least we have a chance...It will get warm eventually either way so lets make the most of the opportunity that we have, shall we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 IMHO chances of getting a 2" plus event in march. Dca 40% iAd 60% Bwi 55% Jyo. 65% Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 In all seriousness, can anyone here see a storm working for us? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 In all seriousness, can anyone here see a storm working for us? Really? Yes. The atmosphere does not care about anything including our weenie desires. It will do what it does. Teleconnections are as favoravle as they have been all season, anamolous cold appears on tap, and if there is a favorable h5 then it may produce. Noone can say if it will produce, but there is no logical reason to suggest it will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yes. The atmosphere does not care about anything including our weenie desires. It will do what it does. Teleconnections are as favoravle as they have been all season, anamolous cold appears on tap, and if there is a favorable h5 then it may produce. Noone can say if it will produce, but there is no logical reason to suggest it will not. It's March. Your location and elevation stands a better chance, but for most of us there is a very logical reason to suggest it will not produce... climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Climo didn't stop 1962 and 1993, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GFS got this weird funky 100 closed low thing going at 105hr. That's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Climo didn't stop 1962 and 1993, just sayin We can probably in theory get a big (4"+) snow through about April 1 into the cities maybe even a smidge later if it is perfect. But those storms you note are anomalies of course. We are at the point already that we sorta need something special or at least something well built. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Congrats Ji on the Euro HECS for you at D8-9...bizarre but plausible snowstorm with the blocking available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Congrats Ji on the Euro HECS for you at D8-9...bizarre but plausible snowstorm with the blocking available. Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Omg just saw the run. Wait till the DC weenies wake up and see this impossible event. Being on the west coast is amazing to watch model runs. Euro stars at 945 pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Omg just saw the run. Wait till the DC weenies wake up and see this impossible event. Being on the west coast is amazing to watch model runs. Euro stars at 945 pm lol I'll admit I raised an eyebrow. Though with our luck it will stick until 96 hrs and then disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Omg just saw the run. Wait till the DC weenies wake up and see this impossible event. Being on the west coast is amazing to watch model runs. Euro stars at 945 pm lol It's even better being in Switzerland, it's at 645 am. This would be a sweet way to end a miserable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The panel in question from the Euro that Will, Ji and Wx referenced: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 6z GFS kinda has it too, just slides it off the coast south of us, but it also has a storm. Maybe worth keeping half an eye on. Beats tracking 40 degree highs and clouds anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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