Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

The big 500 closed low on Mar 4-5-6 looks to have potential.  

For causing tears...

[Bob Chill]

The big 500 closed low on Mar 4-5-6 looks to have potential.  

 

It's gotta get further south. W-E track at our latitude in march will require perfection with all other features. We don't do perfection well. 

[MDstorm]

It's gotta get further south. W-E track at our latitude in march will require perfection with all other features. We don't do perfection well. 

It should get further south as time goes on...hopefully not too far south.

 

MDstorm

[Ian]

It's gotta get further south. W-E track at our latitude in march will require perfection with all other features. We don't do perfection well. 

 

would be nice to get a day of snow that doesn't stick now wouldnt it?

[Bob Chill]

plenty of time.. for boston

 

Just curious what you think about the trends here though. A week ago it was a total lost cause. Just terrible trough depth and axis. It's ever so slowly moved towards a closer solution with the caveat still being the trough alignment and pos tilt (especially on the front side).

 

12z gfs doesn't dig as deep and allows the vort to pass closer to us and even show the trough going neutral then negative. Too late of course but it makes you wonder how far it can go. A little stronger closed feature @ h5 and early suface reflection would bring it even closer. 

 

I know it's a ghost chase and all but I'm having a hard time just disregarding everything as a zero chance. 

[Deck Pic]

when I see something approach from the southwest with abundant moisture, track to the NC coast and be 992MB by the time it reaches our latitude, I will care

[WxUSAF]

 Truncation mutilates it.  Something to watch since the Euro has a similar big 500mb closed low vibe.  

[Ian]

Just curious what you think about the trends here though. A week ago it was a total lost cause. Just terrible trough depth and axis. It's ever so slowly moved towards a closer solution with the caveat still being the trough alignment and pos tilt (especially on the front side).

 

12z gfs doesn't dig as deep and allows the vort to pass closer to us and even show the trough going neutral then negative. Too late of course but it makes you wonder how far it can go. A little stronger closed feature @ h5 and early suface reflection would bring it even closer. 

 

I know it's a ghost chase and all but I'm having a hard time just disregarding everything as a zero chance. 

 

Probably too convoluted .. since there's nothing else to watch and any threat is going to be fraught with issues from here out most likely.. might as well keep en eye on it. Maybe we'll get a norlun.

 

Midweek looks kinda interesting still..

 

Too bad we didn't get this pattern a mo+ ago.

[psuhoffman]

We're currently in the ma promised land with a +pna, -ao, -nao regime but the next storm on tap is a big rainer. Then virtually bone dry for a week. Tomorrow's rainstorm was considered a legit threat window a week or so ago.

I'm not knocking the pattern because if there was a pig se ridge, this thread would be crickets and Ian/mattie g would be destroying the obs thread with spring fever.

The 2 week sweet pattern talk full of legit threats has been going on for 6 weeks. It's time to only look at one week in detail and briefly comment past that.

We are just getting into the pattern, I think maybe we have been talking about the +PNA -NAO pattern so long that people are ahead of themselves on things.  We have had a -NAO for a while, but its more of a fake signal because the blocking has been in the wrong place for our purposes, however, over the next week the blocking is moving into a more favorable position.  The +PNA is just now getting going, and these things have a lag effect.  Our biggest threats for snow usually come towards the end of these patterns as they get established, get the trough into the right configuration, but for a time usually you get supression, then as the pattern starts to relax and break down, often times you get a major storm.  I know we are up against the deadline here and it may very well happen too late.  As it is... even with a big storm, accumulations in the 95 corridor would probably be limited compared to what could have been if this was January or Feb but oh well, it is what it is.  For some of us, in the JYO area, north and west of Baltimore in the hills...we still have a few more weeks to cash in, and even in the cities if you can get a storm to blow up and get into the CCB it can still snow and accumulate.  You just have to be realistic, a storm that may have produced 10" in Janaury might only be 2-4" of wet snow in mid March.  Either way, its a threat still, and for some of us a very real threat still...so we discuss it.  As this pattern evolves, there is very little chance we get out of it without a major precipitation storm along the east coast.  That does not mean we get snow, it could miss us north of south, or just be too warm, but as long as we still have a shot, I will pay attention.  This is fun for me, for many the fun has left this year, and I understand. 

[WxUSAF]

GEFS all have a fish for the Sunday-Monday storm, but pretty decent consistency on the Manitoba Mauler for mid next week.  

[Ian]

We are just getting into the pattern, I think maybe we have been talking about the +PNA -NAO pattern so long that people are ahead of themselves on things.  We have had a -NAO for a while, but its more of a fake signal because the blocking has been in the wrong place for our purposes, however, over the next week the blocking is moving into a more favorable position.  The +PNA is just now getting going, and these things have a lag effect.  Our biggest threats for snow usually come towards the end of these patterns as they get established, get the trough into the right configuration, but for a time usually you get supression, then as the pattern starts to relax and break down, often times you get a major storm.  I know we are up against the deadline here and it may very well happen too late.  As it is... even with a big storm, accumulations in the 95 corridor would probably be limited compared to what could have been if this was January or Feb but oh well, it is what it is.  For some of us, in the JYO area, north and west of Baltimore in the hills...we still have a few more weeks to cash in, and even in the cities if you can get a storm to blow up and get into the CCB it can still snow and accumulate.  You just have to be realistic, a storm that may have produced 10" in Janaury might only be 2-4" of wet snow in mid March.  Either way, its a threat still, and for some of us a very real threat still...so we discuss it.  As this pattern evolves, there is very little chance we get out of it without a major precipitation storm along the east coast.  That does not mean we get snow, it could miss us north of south, or just be too warm, but as long as we still have a shot, I will pay attention.  This is fun for me, for many the fun has left this year, and I understand. 

 

Pretty sure no one said we needed to wait till March to get into a potential good snow pattern earlier in the winter.

[Bob Chill]

Well, it's only 8 days away but the euro gives us measurable snow....track looks like the gfs but the temps are ok. Serious doubts. 

[MDstorm]

Well, it's only 8 days away but the euro gives us measurable snow....track looks like the gfs but the temps are ok. Serious doubts. 

Track on Euro actually looks a little north of GFS.  Definitely gives snow to northern VA/MD,  Blocking up north is weaker, so storm is farther north.  Only 14 more runs to go. 

 

MDstorm

[WxUSAF]

Well, it's only 8 days away but the euro gives us measurable snow....track looks like the gfs but the temps are ok. Serious doubts. 

Believe in the Manitoba Mauler.  6"?  12"?  18"+?

[psuhoffman]

Pretty sure no one said we needed to wait till March to get into a potential good snow pattern earlier in the winter.

No, I was responding to the post above saying we have been in the +PNA -NAO pattern and it is not doing us any good...we are just getting into that now.  We did have a few low probability windows for something, where if we got lucky we could have had a decent snow, one was just after xmas, another in late January and one more in February, but nothing came of those.  They were not very good setups though, simply better then the crap pattern we have had the majority of the time the last 2 years.  We could have gotten something, often times in the past we do luck our way to a 2-4" snowfall even in a marginal setup.  The last 5 years our luck sucks, the only time we seem to get snow is when the stars alignt and then we get dumped on.  Its feast or famine.  THis pattern coming up is a very good setup, only problem is it is coming too late possibly. 

[Bob Chill]

Quite cold through the end of the run again. I can't really tell if the modest ridging in the middle of the country means anything irt warming us up in a couple weeks. Then again, the euro looks completely different since 0z.

 

12z euro/gfs combo showing one egg in the basket @ d7-9. Unusual consistency between the 2 with the latest runs considering how far out we're talking.

 

An easy takeaway is below normal temps for quite some time. Could have lows in the teens if my eyeballs are working.  

[Bob Chill]

Believe in the Manitoba Mauler.  6"?  12"?  18"+?

 

lol- .6 - 1.8 is more like it. Gotta go with the blend right? Verbatim the only issues are track, bl problems, warm nose, and lack of good precip and rates. Outside of that we're lookin pretty solid. 

 

Jokes aside, I would think a more southern track of the h5 energy is a way to hedge. There's been some stout blocking hp in canada that seems to want to continue. Not overly thrilled with a ns sw that can't tap the gulf and limited amplification. Best case would be to get the ull to pass underneath us with a good ole 1030hp in se canada. Certainly not off the table....but.....we are the ma afterall so......yea....

[psuhoffman]

Quite cold through the end of the run again. I can't really tell if the modest ridging in the middle of the country means anything irt warming us up in a couple weeks. Then again, the euro looks completely different since 0z.

 

12z euro/gfs combo showing one egg in the basket @ d7-9. Unusual consistency between the 2 with the latest runs considering how far out we're talking.

 

An easy takeaway is below normal temps for quite some time. Could have lows in the teens if my eyeballs are working.  

As long as the block is holding, modest ridging in the central US could be a good thing, as it could allow some return flow out of the gulf and get something going, and the block would probably prevent it from cutting.  Once that block gets into a favorable location after this current storm and the PNA goes positive, it will be very difficult for anything to cut west of us, not impossible, but low risk. 

[WxUSAF]

lol- .6 - 1.8 is more like it. 

Right...0.6-1.8" of QPF.  Right what I said.  Jeez...  

[psuhoffman]

when I see something approach from the southwest with abundant moisture, track to the NC coast and be 992MB by the time it reaches our latitude, I will care

This x 1000

I am completely unimpressed by today's euro. It looks to me like more of the same crap. Week system approaching from the west or Northwest and washing out. We need a storm to dig way further south and be approaching from the sw towards the capes and most important amplifying before it gets past us.

[WEATHER53]

when I see something approach from the southwest with abundant moisture, track to the NC coast and be 992MB by the time it reaches our latitude, I will care

Exactly. Over Atlanta, thru central sc, thru east central nc, just east of Norfolk and you have the slot track. Most anything else, including phase jobs, is a waste of time.  I am so greatful that I have accepted what 5+ day models really are, it makes for much less frustration and anger.

[Bob Chill]

Exactly. Over Atlanta, thru central sc, thru east central nc, just east of Norfolk and you have the slot track. Most anything else, including phase jobs, is a waste of time.  I am so greatful that I have accepted what 5+ day models really are, it makes for much less frustration and anger.

 

Models do pretty well with heat and rain in the lr. 3-4 runs showing a se ridge @ d8-10 and you can almost borrow against it without worry about losing the collateral. 

[bjohnson102184]

This x 1000

I am completely unimpressed by today's euro. It looks to me like more of the same crap. Week system approaching from the west or Northwest and washing out. We need a storm to dig way further south and be approaching from the sw towards the capes and most important amplifying before it gets past us.

 

Ensembles look different than the OP FWIW

[Ian]

Euro ens mean breaks the streak next week on the snow maps.. tho mainly from the storm developing offshore and sitting there for like a day. Seems unlikely.

[Ian]

Still likes that period around Mar 10 for something building SW and then developing too.

[bjohnson102184]

Euro ens mean breaks the streak next week on the snow maps.. tho mainly from the storm developing offshore and sitting there for like a day. Seems unlikely.

Isnt the low trapped?

[Bob Chill]

This x 1000

I am completely unimpressed by today's euro. It looks to me like more of the same crap. Week system approaching from the west or Northwest and washing out. We need a storm to dig way further south and be approaching from the sw towards the capes and most important amplifying before it gets past us.

 

But last night it was a near beauty. Nice close ull tracking too far south but plenty juicy and amplified. 

 

I'm convinced we back into something weird and messy or get nothing this year. Lack of alignment with so many "ok" patterns and features pretty much says it all. Like I said before, this is the first time we have a block so it's reasonable to give a little more weight past d5 or so but not by much. 

[Ian]

Isnt the low trapped?

yeah but the progression still doesn't really make sense. i can't recall any storm where we got the accumulation once it was well offshore.

[Ian]

nightmare pattern. still a huge block at 360. cold rain forever.

[psuhoffman]

Euro ens mean breaks the streak next week on the snow maps.. tho mainly from the storm developing offshore and sitting there for like a day. Seems unlikely.

I wouldn't be surprised if we waste this pattern and nothing happened. But this set up in March could lead to something crazy. It wouldn't shock me either if we got some kind of bomb along the East Coast that stalls out.