Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The windows were real but we just didn't cash in. We had a period New Years and one in feb when we could have got a storm but it didn't come together. Having a window to me just means the chances for a storm are say 30% instead of 2%. Still need some luck. Our windows have come and gone and so too may this one but the threat is real. This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As I watch the models once again take away everything including whatever scraps they offered after the main event I can't but help think of a Thanksgiving gone bad. 7-10 days out you get that invite to attend a glorious feast. 3-5 days out you find that you will actually be sitting at the kids table so you know you will be getting the seconds of the feast after the adults have taken their pick. 24-48 hours you learn that you are actually being invited to wait on the others and can have a plate of whatever leftovers may be had. Come early Thanksgiving day you then get that call telling you that they have found someone else to serve the others and you are no longer invited. So when it finally comes time for dinner you find yourself home alone eating Pizza watching TV. TV with programs showing everyone else enjoying their Thanksgiving feasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 once you accept the premise, by now very obvious, that were not getting any snow this year, it become very easy to skip looking at models that may show something in the not too distant future, only to take it away, I enjoy reading the comments on this board, as you all are very knowledgable. Wont get frustrated because it just wont snow this year, just like last year. Wont hope for next year either. That would be a waste of time too. Missed skiing this year, maybe better next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. There windows of opportunity during winter. This is 100% without a doubt a legit period. Like PSU says the chances of getting a snowstorm are much greater for the next 2 weeks imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. Day 10 threats can't bust. Saying the pattern supports the chance for an event is not a forecast. Day 10 discussions are speculative. If you remove speculation from the forum we would have threads with 5 posts not 500. This weekends storm was a day ten threat. The three periods I thought had promise all failed because the stj was too pathetic to get anything going and the pj ran interference on the weak crap so we got washed out garbage or fish storms. If u go hunting for significant events and they miss them usually u do end up with nothing. Most don't discuss car topper threats a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There windows of opportunity during winter. This is 100% without a doubt a legit period. Like PSU says the chances of getting a snowstorm are much greater for the next 2 weeks imo We're currently in the ma promised land with a +pna, -ao, -nao regime but the next storm on tap is a big rainer. Then virtually bone dry for a week. Tomorrow's rainstorm was considered a legit threat window a week or so ago. I'm not knocking the pattern because if there was a pig se ridge, this thread would be crickets and Ian/mattie g would be destroying the obs thread with spring fever. The 2 week sweet pattern talk full of legit threats has been going on for 6 weeks. It's time to only look at one week in detail and briefly comment past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We're currently in the ma promised land with a +pna, -ao, -nao regime but the next storm on tap is a big rainer. Then virtually bone dry for a week. Tomorrow's rainstorm was considered a legit threat window a week or so ago. I'm not knocking the pattern because if there was a pig se ridge, this thread would be crickets and Ian/mattie g would be destroying the obs thread with spring fever. The 2 week sweet pattern talk full of legit threats has been going on for 6 weeks. It's time to only look at one week in detail and briefly comment past that. Euro has something close on march 6th. But yes, there is no reason we have to capitalize. I think everyone remembers march 2005. There were a million vorts and the models had all these lows off hatteras and none materialized. 53/KA went nuts over the period calling it one we will tell our grand kids about. We did get 3/8 which was a really cool event but most got 2" or less. Good periods don't have to yield anything. I'm hoping for one event but a shutout wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro has something close on march 6th. But yes, there is no reason we have to capitalize. Yea, it looks nice. Euro seems set on taking the vort south of us for now. GFS is thinking it's another nw track. IMO- I don't think the nw track is favored because of persistent blocking. NS vorts like this are fraught with peril (I know you know this). We can get shafted in any direction. I would like to get shafted with a southern track vs a northern track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yea, it looks nice. Euro seems set on taking the vort south of us for now. GFS is thinking it's another nw track. IMO- I don't think the nw track is favored because of persistent blocking. NS vorts like this are fraught with peril (I know you know this). We can get shafted in any direction. I would like to get shafted with a southern track vs a northern track though. beggars, but I hope if we get a day time event it isn't -SN....pretty much a guarantee not to stick at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yea, it looks nice. Euro seems set on taking the vort south of us for now. GFS is thinking it's another nw track. IMO- I don't think the nw track is favored because of persistent blocking. NS vorts like this are fraught with peril (I know you know this). We can get shafted in any direction. I would like to get shafted with a southern track vs a northern track though. Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Agreed, Snow to the north makes sense. To the south, is just wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Southern folks are nice and patient and appreciative. Getting shafted to the n fires up the entitled crew. Pick your poison I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. I assume you mean longitude. At our latitude that's about 430 miles worth of shift. Seems like a bunch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. Gee, Chill Bob, the impending round of mid-atlantic rain/fog/mire seems to be getting you all queefed up. The medium range here holds the ides of march, so beware.......remember 3/29/41... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Gee, Chill Bob, the impending round of mid-atlantic rain/fog/mire seems to be getting you all queefed up. The medium range here holds the ides of march, so beware.......remember 3/29/41... 42 and that is the only way you get 12" of snow in late March...+SN for like 5 or 6 hours...pretty sure it was during the day as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Gee, Chill Bob, the impending round of mid-atlantic rain/fog/mire seems to be getting you all queefed up. The medium range here holds the ides of march, so beware.......remember 3/29/41... ? I'm not all worked up at all. Just staying focused on the short term stuff inside of 6 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I assume you mean longitude. At our latitude that's about 430 miles worth of shift. Seems like a bunch to me. Nah, just a simple thought about the pos tilt on the front side of the trough. Back it up 8-10 degrees of angle and things look more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Nah, just a simple thought about the pos tilt on the front side of the trough. Back it up 8-10 degrees of angle and things look more fun. Oh, I see. Yes, much easier to do that than move the trough 8 degrees. Are you talking about this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It'll be fun when April arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Oh, I see. Yes, much easier to do that than move the trough 8 degrees. Are you talking about this weekend? Yea, only reason I'm interested is because originally everything was modeled well offshore. Like not even close. Now we have a surface low is sight off the nc coast and some precip inland. Very very low prob at this point though. Flow on the front side of the trough will push it quietly away. We would need h5 to stay closed off down south and get spinning for a solution further to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 A -3F November and a -5F March will be great bookends to a +3-4F winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 GFS continues to improve. Let's see what the end result is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So nobody else is seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So nobody else is seeing this? I've been watching it for days. GFS is dying to do it. It's just inching.....millimetering it's way @ h5. Latest developments have moved the status from low low prob to low prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Closer...but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So nobody else is seeing this? Its still a nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I guess it has a chance. Hopefully the outer banks can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 plenty of time.. for boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The big 500 closed low on Mar 4-5-6 looks to have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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