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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion

TUweathermanDD

By TUweathermanDD,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Oh, I see.  Yes, much easier to do that than move the trough 8 degrees.  Are you talking about this weekend?

 

Yea, only reason I'm interested is because originally everything was modeled well offshore. Like not even close. Now we have a surface low is sight off the nc coast and some precip inland. Very very low prob at this point though. Flow on the front side of the trough will push it quietly away. We would need h5 to stay closed off down south and get spinning for a solution further to the left. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

It's gotta get further south. W-E track at our latitude in march will require perfection with all other features. We don't do perfection well. 

 

would be nice to get a day of snow that doesn't stick now wouldnt it?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

plenty of time.. for boston

 

Just curious what you think about the trends here though. A week ago it was a total lost cause. Just terrible trough depth and axis. It's ever so slowly moved towards a closer solution with the caveat still being the trough alignment and pos tilt (especially on the front side).

 

12z gfs doesn't dig as deep and allows the vort to pass closer to us and even show the trough going neutral then negative. Too late of course but it makes you wonder how far it can go. A little stronger closed feature @ h5 and early suface reflection would bring it even closer. 

 

I know it's a ghost chase and all but I'm having a hard time just disregarding everything as a zero chance. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Just curious what you think about the trends here though. A week ago it was a total lost cause. Just terrible trough depth and axis. It's ever so slowly moved towards a closer solution with the caveat still being the trough alignment and pos tilt (especially on the front side).

 

12z gfs doesn't dig as deep and allows the vort to pass closer to us and even show the trough going neutral then negative. Too late of course but it makes you wonder how far it can go. A little stronger closed feature @ h5 and early suface reflection would bring it even closer. 

 

I know it's a ghost chase and all but I'm having a hard time just disregarding everything as a zero chance. 

 

Probably too convoluted .. since there's nothing else to watch and any threat is going to be fraught with issues from here out most likely.. might as well keep en eye on it. Maybe we'll get a norlun. :lol:

 

Midweek looks kinda interesting still..

 

Too bad we didn't get this pattern a mo+ ago.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

We're currently in the ma promised land with a +pna, -ao, -nao regime but the next storm on tap is a big rainer. Then virtually bone dry for a week. Tomorrow's rainstorm was considered a legit threat window a week or so ago.

I'm not knocking the pattern because if there was a pig se ridge, this thread would be crickets and Ian/mattie g would be destroying the obs thread with spring fever.

The 2 week sweet pattern talk full of legit threats has been going on for 6 weeks. It's time to only look at one week in detail and briefly comment past that.

We are just getting into the pattern, I think maybe we have been talking about the +PNA -NAO pattern so long that people are ahead of themselves on things.  We have had a -NAO for a while, but its more of a fake signal because the blocking has been in the wrong place for our purposes, however, over the next week the blocking is moving into a more favorable position.  The +PNA is just now getting going, and these things have a lag effect.  Our biggest threats for snow usually come towards the end of these patterns as they get established, get the trough into the right configuration, but for a time usually you get supression, then as the pattern starts to relax and break down, often times you get a major storm.  I know we are up against the deadline here and it may very well happen too late.  As it is... even with a big storm, accumulations in the 95 corridor would probably be limited compared to what could have been if this was January or Feb but oh well, it is what it is.  For some of us, in the JYO area, north and west of Baltimore in the hills...we still have a few more weeks to cash in, and even in the cities if you can get a storm to blow up and get into the CCB it can still snow and accumulate.  You just have to be realistic, a storm that may have produced 10" in Janaury might only be 2-4" of wet snow in mid March.  Either way, its a threat still, and for some of us a very real threat still...so we discuss it.  As this pattern evolves, there is very little chance we get out of it without a major precipitation storm along the east coast.  That does not mean we get snow, it could miss us north of south, or just be too warm, but as long as we still have a shot, I will pay attention.  This is fun for me, for many the fun has left this year, and I understand. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

We are just getting into the pattern, I think maybe we have been talking about the +PNA -NAO pattern so long that people are ahead of themselves on things.  We have had a -NAO for a while, but its more of a fake signal because the blocking has been in the wrong place for our purposes, however, over the next week the blocking is moving into a more favorable position.  The +PNA is just now getting going, and these things have a lag effect.  Our biggest threats for snow usually come towards the end of these patterns as they get established, get the trough into the right configuration, but for a time usually you get supression, then as the pattern starts to relax and break down, often times you get a major storm.  I know we are up against the deadline here and it may very well happen too late.  As it is... even with a big storm, accumulations in the 95 corridor would probably be limited compared to what could have been if this was January or Feb but oh well, it is what it is.  For some of us, in the JYO area, north and west of Baltimore in the hills...we still have a few more weeks to cash in, and even in the cities if you can get a storm to blow up and get into the CCB it can still snow and accumulate.  You just have to be realistic, a storm that may have produced 10" in Janaury might only be 2-4" of wet snow in mid March.  Either way, its a threat still, and for some of us a very real threat still...so we discuss it.  As this pattern evolves, there is very little chance we get out of it without a major precipitation storm along the east coast.  That does not mean we get snow, it could miss us north of south, or just be too warm, but as long as we still have a shot, I will pay attention.  This is fun for me, for many the fun has left this year, and I understand. 

 

Pretty sure no one said we needed to wait till March to get into a potential good snow pattern earlier in the winter.

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MDstorm

MDstorm

Posted
Posted

Well, it's only 8 days away but the euro gives us measurable snow....track looks like the gfs but the temps are ok. Serious doubts. 

Track on Euro actually looks a little north of GFS.  Definitely gives snow to northern VA/MD,  Blocking up north is weaker, so storm is farther north.  Only 14 more runs to go.  :pimp:

 

MDstorm

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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Pretty sure no one said we needed to wait till March to get into a potential good snow pattern earlier in the winter.

No, I was responding to the post above saying we have been in the +PNA -NAO pattern and it is not doing us any good...we are just getting into that now.  We did have a few low probability windows for something, where if we got lucky we could have had a decent snow, one was just after xmas, another in late January and one more in February, but nothing came of those.  They were not very good setups though, simply better then the crap pattern we have had the majority of the time the last 2 years.  We could have gotten something, often times in the past we do luck our way to a 2-4" snowfall even in a marginal setup.  The last 5 years our luck sucks, the only time we seem to get snow is when the stars alignt and then we get dumped on.  Its feast or famine.  THis pattern coming up is a very good setup, only problem is it is coming too late possibly. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Quite cold through the end of the run again. I can't really tell if the modest ridging in the middle of the country means anything irt warming us up in a couple weeks. Then again, the euro looks completely different since 0z.

 

12z euro/gfs combo showing one egg in the basket @ d7-9. Unusual consistency between the 2 with the latest runs considering how far out we're talking.

 

An easy takeaway is below normal temps for quite some time. Could have lows in the teens if my eyeballs are working.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Believe in the Manitoba Mauler.  6"?  12"?  18"+?

 

lol- .6 - 1.8 is more like it. Gotta go with the blend right? Verbatim the only issues are track, bl problems, warm nose, and lack of good precip and rates. Outside of that we're lookin pretty solid. 

 

Jokes aside, I would think a more southern track of the h5 energy is a way to hedge. There's been some stout blocking hp in canada that seems to want to continue. Not overly thrilled with a ns sw that can't tap the gulf and limited amplification. Best case would be to get the ull to pass underneath us with a good ole 1030hp in se canada. Certainly not off the table....but.....we are the ma afterall so......yea....

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Quite cold through the end of the run again. I can't really tell if the modest ridging in the middle of the country means anything irt warming us up in a couple weeks. Then again, the euro looks completely different since 0z.

 

12z euro/gfs combo showing one egg in the basket @ d7-9. Unusual consistency between the 2 with the latest runs considering how far out we're talking.

 

An easy takeaway is below normal temps for quite some time. Could have lows in the teens if my eyeballs are working.  

As long as the block is holding, modest ridging in the central US could be a good thing, as it could allow some return flow out of the gulf and get something going, and the block would probably prevent it from cutting.  Once that block gets into a favorable location after this current storm and the PNA goes positive, it will be very difficult for anything to cut west of us, not impossible, but low risk. 

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