stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There's another little happy wave iN MT dropping down. Also, you can't outright dismiss the trof right now..you see how it improved on the GFS. Chances are remote, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I agree, our best window seems to be after March 8th and perhaps even into mid month if the GFS is right and the whole thing keeps reloading. The trough axis the next week just sucks and nothing diving into it is strong enough to sharpen it up and pull it back. I think as this starts to break down we will get a storm to pop on the east coast between March 8-16 but the question is will it be too late. The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. This. Day 8 or 9 always looks like "our best shot" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I hear the Jaws music at 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I hear the Jaws music at 180... No. The storm shears out on the next few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No. The storm shears out on the next few. Thanks spoiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sigh. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Thanks spoiler. Sorry to break your wood before reality did. I'm hoping just like you, your weekend trough even could happen its there and gfs improved, but I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah gfs runs us over with a closed H5 low. Height falls not impressive though, and the baroclinic zone is way OTS. D8-9 very similar to March 1999 But I'm sure it will find a way to bust. Overall long range GFS is advertising the best looking March pattern I've seen in 10 years. Everything you want Arctic Air, slow movers no SE ridge. It will bust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lol are you drunk? Yes. With life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 D8 threat at face value (prob worth 3 pennies to a nickel) is pretty lame. 850 and Ull track nw. That is not a snow recipe more often than not in Jan let alone march. Euro rolls the ball all the way to Atlanta though. So I guess the period bears watching even if the sw responsible is in central russia or thereabouts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. The windows were real but we just didn't cash in. We had a period New Years and one in feb when we could have got a storm but it didn't come together. Having a window to me just means the chances for a storm are say 30% instead of 2%. Still need some luck. Our windows have come and gone and so too may this one but the threat is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 lol...the pattern never breaks down.....March is going to be like -6 These blocks are hard to break down. This pattern probably lasts until march 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Why can't that trof axis be just east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 we are going to have a legit -NAO/+PNA pattern for 2 weeks maybe longer....something will happen....probably not for me If this was dec jan or feb I'd have those odds way higher for dc but its getting very late. I have another month here so my chances to cash in on this are much higher but it's still possible to get snow into dc just takes a real perfect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The windows were real but we just didn't cash in. We had a period New Years and one in feb when we could have got a storm but it didn't come together. Having a window to me just means the chances for a storm are say 30% instead of 2%. Still need some luck. Our windows have come and gone and so too may this one but the threat is real. This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As I watch the models once again take away everything including whatever scraps they offered after the main event I can't but help think of a Thanksgiving gone bad. 7-10 days out you get that invite to attend a glorious feast. 3-5 days out you find that you will actually be sitting at the kids table so you know you will be getting the seconds of the feast after the adults have taken their pick. 24-48 hours you learn that you are actually being invited to wait on the others and can have a plate of whatever leftovers may be had. Come early Thanksgiving day you then get that call telling you that they have found someone else to serve the others and you are no longer invited. So when it finally comes time for dinner you find yourself home alone eating Pizza watching TV. TV with programs showing everyone else enjoying their Thanksgiving feasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 once you accept the premise, by now very obvious, that were not getting any snow this year, it become very easy to skip looking at models that may show something in the not too distant future, only to take it away, I enjoy reading the comments on this board, as you all are very knowledgable. Wont get frustrated because it just wont snow this year, just like last year. Wont hope for next year either. That would be a waste of time too. Missed skiing this year, maybe better next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. There windows of opportunity during winter. This is 100% without a doubt a legit period. Like PSU says the chances of getting a snowstorm are much greater for the next 2 weeks imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This winter we've had more snow otg in bad windows. Xmas period and clipperfest outperformed any high profile windows. Getting dirty is working better for us than pretty window dressing. There has been too much d10 talk and bust this year to believe anything. Having a the first block of the season ups the ante with confidence in models but I think the terms legit and threat should only be used inside of 4-5 days from here on out. The real irony will happen if the weekend backs one into our yards. Day 10 threats can't bust. Saying the pattern supports the chance for an event is not a forecast. Day 10 discussions are speculative. If you remove speculation from the forum we would have threads with 5 posts not 500. This weekends storm was a day ten threat. The three periods I thought had promise all failed because the stj was too pathetic to get anything going and the pj ran interference on the weak crap so we got washed out garbage or fish storms. If u go hunting for significant events and they miss them usually u do end up with nothing. Most don't discuss car topper threats a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There windows of opportunity during winter. This is 100% without a doubt a legit period. Like PSU says the chances of getting a snowstorm are much greater for the next 2 weeks imo We're currently in the ma promised land with a +pna, -ao, -nao regime but the next storm on tap is a big rainer. Then virtually bone dry for a week. Tomorrow's rainstorm was considered a legit threat window a week or so ago. I'm not knocking the pattern because if there was a pig se ridge, this thread would be crickets and Ian/mattie g would be destroying the obs thread with spring fever. The 2 week sweet pattern talk full of legit threats has been going on for 6 weeks. It's time to only look at one week in detail and briefly comment past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro has something close on march 6th. But yes, there is no reason we have to capitalize. Yea, it looks nice. Euro seems set on taking the vort south of us for now. GFS is thinking it's another nw track. IMO- I don't think the nw track is favored because of persistent blocking. NS vorts like this are fraught with peril (I know you know this). We can get shafted in any direction. I would like to get shafted with a southern track vs a northern track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yea, it looks nice. Euro seems set on taking the vort south of us for now. GFS is thinking it's another nw track. IMO- I don't think the nw track is favored because of persistent blocking. NS vorts like this are fraught with peril (I know you know this). We can get shafted in any direction. I would like to get shafted with a southern track vs a northern track though. Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Agreed, Snow to the north makes sense. To the south, is just wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not me. Areas south of me getting snow while I look at the same ole partly cloudy just makes it worse. Southern folks are nice and patient and appreciative. Getting shafted to the n fires up the entitled crew. Pick your poison I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. I assume you mean longitude. At our latitude that's about 430 miles worth of shift. Seems like a bunch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Time is getting thin but I still don't think we should completely turn our backs on this weekend. We're only missing by 8 degrees or so of trough orientation. I know it's low prob but it's still close enough to eyeball and it isn't in fantasyland. Gee, Chill Bob, the impending round of mid-atlantic rain/fog/mire seems to be getting you all queefed up. The medium range here holds the ides of march, so beware.......remember 3/29/41... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Gee, Chill Bob, the impending round of mid-atlantic rain/fog/mire seems to be getting you all queefed up. The medium range here holds the ides of march, so beware.......remember 3/29/41... ? I'm not all worked up at all. Just staying focused on the short term stuff inside of 6 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I assume you mean longitude. At our latitude that's about 430 miles worth of shift. Seems like a bunch to me. Nah, just a simple thought about the pos tilt on the front side of the trough. Back it up 8-10 degrees of angle and things look more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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