WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? Well, Bob has mentioned crack often lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? The surface is almost always above freezing last couple years. But It's not a torch. Likely mid to upper 30s and dropping to near freezing. All I said was cartopper+ but less than an inch. Tough crowd in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The surface is almost always above freezing last couple years. But It's not a torch. Likely mid to upper 30s and dropping to near freezing. All I said was cartopper+ but less than an inch. Tough crowd in here. LOL, just friends giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's great how every run keeps us cool/cold throughout. stupid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I see we're getting NAM'd again at 00z. The difference between it and the GFS even this close in is always laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I see we're getting NAM'd again at 00z. The difference between it and the GFS even this close in is always laughable. Way way too warm however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So is anybody seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS? I mean, it's likely nothing..but the h5 changes from 12z vs 18z vs now are kinda interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Um. Dammit..heights can recover quick enough..but that's a huge change from 18/12z. I'm trying yall...I'm trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Why can't that trof axis be just east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I can't even get Bob Chill to join my delusions. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors.. I agree, our best window seems to be after March 8th and perhaps even into mid month if the GFS is right and the whole thing keeps reloading. The trough axis the next week just sucks and nothing diving into it is strong enough to sharpen it up and pull it back. I think as this starts to break down we will get a storm to pop on the east coast between March 8-16 but the question is will it be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Um. Dammit..heights can recover quick enough..but that's a huge change from 18/12z. I'm trying yall...I'm trying I think we're collectively willing the trough axis to get right and the beast of lp to gtf out of the way. But the battle is stacked hard against us. Maybe nc and seva cash in. Wouldn't that be lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Weekend might still be worth eyeing. I wouldn't give it high odds but faith in pattern evolution past like day 2 or 3 is pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There's another little happy wave iN MT dropping down. Also, you can't outright dismiss the trof right now..you see how it improved on the GFS. Chances are remote, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I agree, our best window seems to be after March 8th and perhaps even into mid month if the GFS is right and the whole thing keeps reloading. The trough axis the next week just sucks and nothing diving into it is strong enough to sharpen it up and pull it back. I think as this starts to break down we will get a storm to pop on the east coast between March 8-16 but the question is will it be too late. The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. This. Day 8 or 9 always looks like "our best shot" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I hear the Jaws music at 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I hear the Jaws music at 180... No. The storm shears out on the next few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No. The storm shears out on the next few. Thanks spoiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sigh. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Thanks spoiler. Sorry to break your wood before reality did. I'm hoping just like you, your weekend trough even could happen its there and gfs improved, but I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah gfs runs us over with a closed H5 low. Height falls not impressive though, and the baroclinic zone is way OTS. D8-9 very similar to March 1999 But I'm sure it will find a way to bust. Overall long range GFS is advertising the best looking March pattern I've seen in 10 years. Everything you want Arctic Air, slow movers no SE ridge. It will bust though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lol are you drunk? Yes. With life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 D8 threat at face value (prob worth 3 pennies to a nickel) is pretty lame. 850 and Ull track nw. That is not a snow recipe more often than not in Jan let alone march. Euro rolls the ball all the way to Atlanta though. So I guess the period bears watching even if the sw responsible is in central russia or thereabouts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 lol...the pattern never breaks down.....March is going to be like -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The window has been elusive door to door. I've heard just about every date talked about since mid Jan from every poster on the board. Only way we're getting ours is a sneak attack pre day 5. Post d 5 is fools gold this year. No sense even looking or you'll end up talking about memorial day soon. The windows were real but we just didn't cash in. We had a period New Years and one in feb when we could have got a storm but it didn't come together. Having a window to me just means the chances for a storm are say 30% instead of 2%. Still need some luck. Our windows have come and gone and so too may this one but the threat is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The windows were real but we just didn't cash in. We had a period New Years and one in feb when we could have got a storm but it didn't come together. Having a window to me just means the chances for a storm are say 30% instead of 2%. Still need some luck. Our windows have come and gone and so too may this one but the threat is real. we are going to have a legit -NAO/+PNA pattern for 2 weeks maybe longer....something will happen....probably not for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 lol...the pattern never breaks down.....March is going to be like -6 These blocks are hard to break down. This pattern probably lasts until march 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Why can't that trof axis be just east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 we are going to have a legit -NAO/+PNA pattern for 2 weeks maybe longer....something will happen....probably not for me If this was dec jan or feb I'd have those odds way higher for dc but its getting very late. I have another month here so my chances to cash in on this are much higher but it's still possible to get snow into dc just takes a real perfect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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