WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors.. Real story of the winter, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MuntzMASux.jpg CFS2 sucks. I don't know why anybody would use it. Sure some will point to something it got right, but a blind man throwing darts will get a triple 20 sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ghost chase. Let's see how that's lookin in about 90 hours. Isn't that why we are here, for the chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 CFS2 sucks. I don't know why anybody would use it. Sure some will point to something it got right, but a blind man throwing darts will get a triple 20 sooner or later. But as Nelson points out, ENSO dipped into negative territory just in time for winter, and has started to tick back up as winter is ending. That's not a forecast - it's reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a heck of a day 8-9-10 pattern on the Euro. Not sure I've seen a closed 500 low go from Minot ND to Savannah GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a heck of a day 8-9-10 pattern on the Euro. Not sure I've seen a closed 500 low go from Minot ND to Savannah GA. It just rolls downhill doesn't it? Pretty crazy pattern to start the month. March have been sleepers for a while. If we are still able to get march snow I suppose the first 10 days of the month will be a good test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday... It's pretty odd. GFS and Euro both have their own versions. Neither of which are common. Maybe it's been a while since we've seen a ns vort dig down a pretty big pna ridge and amplify without phasing. If we take a blend of the gfs and euro then we are in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday... I'm gonna tell my mother to prep for that storm. Pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's pretty odd. GFS and Euro both have their own versions. Neither of which are common. Maybe it's been a while since we've seen a ns vort dig down a pretty big pna ridge and amplify without phasing. If we take a blend of the gfs and euro then we are in the bullseye. GFS goes to crap after truncation so not sure it's solution is meaningful. Not that d7-10 euro is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We certainly all know this stands little chance of verifying but it sure is pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS goes to crap after truncation so not sure it's solution is meaningful. Not that d7-10 euro is much better. Before it goes to crap is has a ns sw starting to roll down hill similar to the euro but it doesn't dig it as far because it shows the trough flattening out in front and a dreaded nw track. Euro digging deep into the se is suspect anyway. And you're right. What this all means doesn't really make a difference at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We certainly all know this stands little chance of verifying but it sure is pretty to look at. It is? For whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We certainly all know this stands little chance of verifying but it sure is pretty to look at. except it would more than likely miss us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 except it would more than likely miss us Given that map, we would want it on the SC coastline at that latitude. However, it's an interesting time-frame. It could be our last shot of the winter, but given how this winter has gone, I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 except it would more than likely miss us Deep trough, arctic feed - desperate times call for desperate measures. Looking at a map like that 10 days out, which probably STILL wouldn't give us much, is better than nothing. Spring is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday... and that's really all we should take away from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 and that's really all we should take away from this run I'm willing to bet it will become a sheared low centered over the GL by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 and that's really all we should take away from this run This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG It's amazing that mother nature can't seem to find "x" in the equation "x + high QPF=DC Snowstorm". She keeps answering incorrectly "warm temps". Darn it. Would be nice to see another cartopper though. Hopefully it will be powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG that's been there off and on.. tricky way to get snow of value. anything light during the day isn't doing anything. tho the heavies seems to come at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 that's been there off and on.. tricky way to get snow of value. anything light during the day isn't doing anything. tho the heavies seems to come at night. Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive. But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year. Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. I think we'll have threats over the next couple or 3 weeks, but that doesn't mean I think we will necessarily see anything from those threats threats have not been our problem this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive. But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year. Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future. An I looking at the wrong model? Seems pretty warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 1st storm. Too much ridging off the southeast coast.2-5th storm not enough ridging off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well, it is about time for the final kick in the nuts where it gets cold just long enough to force everything south of us to give Dixie a HECS followed by a cutter that gives us warm rain only to redevelop off the coast and dump on SNE. Sound like a plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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