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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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that's been there off and on.. tricky way to get snow of value. anything light during the day isn't doing anything. tho the heavies seems to come at night.

 

Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive. 

 

But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year. 

 

Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future. 

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Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive.

But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year.

Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future.

An I looking at the wrong model? Seems pretty warm to me.

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Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time?

The surface is almost always above freezing last couple years. But It's not a torch. Likely mid to upper 30s and dropping to near freezing.

All I said was cartopper+ but less than an inch. Tough crowd in here.

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I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors..

I agree, our best window seems to be after March 8th and perhaps even into mid month if the GFS is right and the whole thing keeps reloading.  The trough axis the next week just sucks and nothing diving into it is strong enough to sharpen it up and pull it back.  I think as this starts to break down we will get a storm to pop on the east coast between March 8-16 but the question is will it be too late. 

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Um.

Dammit..heights can recover quick enough..but that's a huge change from 18/12z.

I'm trying yall...I'm trying

I think we're collectively willing the trough axis to get right and the beast of lp to gtf out of the way. But the battle is stacked hard against us. Maybe nc and seva cash in. Wouldn't that be lovely.

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