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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors..

 

Real story of the winter, IMO.

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CFS2 sucks. I don't know why anybody would use it. Sure some will point to something it got right, but a blind man throwing darts will get a triple 20 sooner or later.

But as Nelson points out, ENSO dipped into negative territory just in time for winter, and has started to tick back up as winter is ending. That's not a forecast - it's reality.

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That is a heck of a day 8-9-10 pattern on the Euro. Not sure I've seen a closed 500 low go from Minot ND to Savannah GA.

It just rolls downhill doesn't it? Pretty crazy pattern to start the month. March have been sleepers for a while. If we are still able to get march snow I suppose the first 10 days of the month will be a good test.

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That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday...

It's pretty odd. GFS and Euro both have their own versions. Neither of which are common. Maybe it's been a while since we've seen a ns vort dig down a pretty big pna ridge and amplify without phasing. If we take a blend of the gfs and euro then we are in the bullseye.

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It's pretty odd. GFS and Euro both have their own versions. Neither of which are common. Maybe it's been a while since we've seen a ns vort dig down a pretty big pna ridge and amplify without phasing. If we take a blend of the gfs and euro then we are in the bullseye.

GFS goes to crap after truncation so not sure it's solution is meaningful. Not that d7-10 euro is much better.

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GFS goes to crap after truncation so not sure it's solution is meaningful. Not that d7-10 euro is much better.

Before it goes to crap is has a ns sw starting to roll down hill similar to the euro but it doesn't dig it as far because it shows the trough flattening out in front and a dreaded nw track. Euro digging deep into the se is suspect anyway.

And you're right. What this all means doesn't really make a difference at this point.

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