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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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Any severe weather on the horizon?

 

Winter 2012 - 2013 - WAS NOT ROCKIN' ..... It was STINKIN'

 

I see one last chance that it could pull a rabbit out of it's hat, but it probably would be rain or so light we should forget about it!

That's just it - it's going to be too cold and too dry for any severe weather.  March is looking nasty cold.  Persistent cold.

 

Also... March 1 average high is 51 degrees.  March 15 average is 56 degrees.  March 31 average is 61 degrees.  So the term "cold" means something very different in March to what it means in January or February.

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don't fret Randy, it happens every year

it's called March 1....winter really is over

not that this model's prediction will be right, this link is the main factor that us snow lovers should be looking to for next year

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

Given our luck it will probably rise a bit and then right on schedule follow the lowest possible forecast on that chart :( 

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Even you're losing the fight in you.  We need a mercy killing.  70's from here on out...

 

The rub is it is going to be cold through Mid March it looks like. And if the block/+PNA becomes stable, perhaps even longer.  I'd guess March is definitely going to be a minus departure unless we  get some anomalous +20's in the 2nd half....

 

My guess is that we have a cartopper or 2 through March 10th.  Perhaps just in the burbs. It is not real promising for anything more than that even with the low skill of the models past days 5 to 7.  I think the idea that some storm will magically develop is pretty low, and late developers suck for us anyway.  I am looking for a complex moving from the south that has crossed over the 4-corners and perhaps generates or phases with a gulf low..Until I see that I am not very encouraged.  I'd like to see something go negative, cut off or ride inland...It will probably screw me, but JYO/MRB can definitely cash in for the next 3 weeks at least....

 

Edit: I see the 12z GFS might have a cartopper

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I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors..

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I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors..

 

right on cue, GFS has a storm on 3/10

 

with a potential monster right behind it...

 

fantasy land, but at least we have a run which isnt dry wire to wire

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