Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MCI averages more snow than us and has colder winters....not realy a big deal Wichita with a #2 then another top 5 would be pretty big. Forecast earlier from them was for another #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It looks like a good time to head to Snowshoe, but it's hard to time the heavy stuff. Based on the models, it looks like they get 3-4" a day for the next 47 days. If I went I'd like to see 6-12" in one day. I'll have to watch how next weekend sets up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Still wondering about next weekend. Signs are kind of there for something. LC and the Wx South guy on Fb keep some hope alive. I am sure it will be heartache and despair. But What is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't see how we get anything substantial in a constant northwest flow after 96hrs. Maybe another moisture-starved clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably have to wait for the march 5-10th window as the pattern starts to break down for a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably have to wait for the march 5-10th window as the pattern starts to break down for a shot. if you count that period, that would be3 or 4 weekend slots that "something" may happen. That is what I mean by "getting old real fast" !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 GFS has a bit of March 1999 action near Mar 9. Tho it looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro gives Atlanta 4+ at the end of the run. That would be fun. Next Sun sorta maybe worth watching per Euro as is that storm at the end of the run if it's not so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 One thing seems in agreement at this point. March is looking cooler than normal. Just a kick in the jewels after another crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro gives Atlanta 4+ at the end of the run. That would be fun. Next Sun sorta maybe worth watching per Euro as is that storm at the end of the run if it's not so suppressed. Yeah, big difference from 0z to 12z with the storm off the coast. Bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 One thing seems in agreement at this point. March is looking cooler than normal. Just a kick in the jewels after another crappy winter. seems to happen a lot in NINA winters nonetheless, a beautiful day and the sun feels real warm that said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if something becomes at least "threatening" to us over the next 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 this usually happens in Ninos, but I figure to add insult to injury something will cut off in dixie in late March or Early April. Atlanta will get 3" of daytime paste on like March 26th and the Smokies will get 16-24" And we'll get drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 this usually happens in Ninos, but I figure to add insult to injury something will cut off in dixie in late March or Early April. Atlanta will get 3" of daytime paste on like March 26th and the Smokies will get 16-24" but since this is more of a NINA than anything else, it'll trend north, though not necessarily far enough or possibly too far given this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And we'll get drizzle? Yep. The rain/snow line will make it to Fredericksburg but the DC Metro will be pissy light rain due to the lack of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For those west of the BR, Tuesday could be messy. Certainly would also appear that it's not an outcome that's set in stone as to type. From LWX: 1...TIMING. THE TREND OF THE SREF OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ONSET ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS...AND QUICK PEEK AT LATEST 12Z ECMWF ALL SUPPORT THIS SLOWING OF PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF MAINLY AFTER 12Z...EXCEPT UP TO CHC POPS IN THE FAR SW ZNS AFTER 09Z. THE 09Z SREF/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING A BAND OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND BY AFTERNOON HAVE DEFINITE POPS CWA WIDE. 2...WINTER P-TYPE AND AREAL EXTENT. 18Z NAM CONTS TO DEPICT A SGFNT PD OF FZRA FOR THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...WHILE THE 18Z GFS BUFR DATA PAINTS IT AS MOSTLY SNOW. ECMWF TKNS SCHEMES SUGGEST A MELTING LYR BUT COLD LLVLS TO START...WARMING EVERYTHING DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE STRONG WAA OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING...WOULD EXPECT A WINTRY MIX...WITH SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. FOR THE DC BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW AT ONSET... BUT WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. 3...QPF LIQUID AMOUNTS. PROGS SUGGEST A RANGE BETWEEN ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE INCH CWA-WIDE. 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTS ABOUT A 5-7 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE QPF WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SINGLE FRONTEGENTICAL FORCED BAND. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER FOR QPF TO DEPART AND KEEPS SOME QPF THROUGH 06Z WED. ALTHO THERE ARE STILL ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESSY CONDS IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...SPCLY TUE MRNG. HV ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE CNTYS. WHILE THE TRIGGER ATTM WUD BE ICE ACCUM...KEPT RATHER GENERIC WORDING IN CASE LATER SOLNS LEAN MORE TWD GFS /IE...SNW- SLEET/. WL BE MONITORING LATER GDNC IN CASE THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED EWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We should watch the 129-144 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361765623.522716.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tonight's 00z EURO has officially made me give up...We finally get a raging -NAO, +PNA, but the STJ dries up...Feel like banging my head on a wall really hard, oh wait I have been for the last 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trough axis just a bit too Far East for a weak vort to do the trick. We need a strong vort to amp it up and have it go neg but of course we get 10 days with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And this gave us nothing...I froze my ass off while getting pelted with cold drizzle and a few snow flurries at RFK Stadium (exhibition baseball). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tuesday looks quite wet. NAM is pretty consistent around 1.3-1.4", GFS is 0.6-0.8", SREFs around an inch, Euro somewhere around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tuesday looks quite wet. NAM is pretty consistent around 1.3-1.4", GFS is 0.6-0.8", SREFs around an inch, Euro somewhere around an inch. Cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My despondency has reached a new low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Long range ensembles are giving me reason to say it's time to pull the plug on this winter. I just don't see any opportunities to salvage snow anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Any severe weather on the horizon? Winter 2012 - 2013 - WAS NOT ROCKIN' ..... It was STINKIN' I see one last chance that it could pull a rabbit out of it's hat, but it probably would be rain or so light we should forget about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Any severe weather on the horizon? Winter 2012 - 2013 - WAS NOT ROCKIN' ..... It was STINKIN' I see one last chance that it could pull a rabbit out of it's hat, but it probably would be rain or so light we should forget about it! That's just it - it's going to be too cold and too dry for any severe weather. March is looking nasty cold. Persistent cold. Also... March 1 average high is 51 degrees. March 15 average is 56 degrees. March 31 average is 61 degrees. So the term "cold" means something very different in March to what it means in January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My despondency has reached a new low. don't fret Randy, it happens every year it's called March 1....winter really is over not that this model's prediction will be right, this link is the main factor that us snow lovers should be looking to for next year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Long range ensembles are giving me reason to say it's time to pull the plug on this winter. I just don't see any opportunities to salvage snow anymore. We can't salvage snow when there is an opportunity. So, no real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We can't salvage snow when there is an opportunity. So, no real difference. Even you're losing the fight in you. We need a mercy killing. 70's from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 don't fret Randy, it happens every year it's called March 1....winter really is over not that this model's prediction will be right, this link is the main factor that us snow lovers should be looking to for next year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Given our luck it will probably rise a bit and then right on schedule follow the lowest possible forecast on that chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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