WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, I don't know what all the doom and gloom is about. The gfs ens members have several showing accumulating snow for our area on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The storm on Tuesday may have the best model agreement across the board than any other storm I've seen this year. Ensembles are good matches to ops too. Not a snow storm, but interesting to see such agreement at 72 hours after the year we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The storm on Tuesday may have the best model agreement across the board than any other storm I've seen this year. Ensembles are good matches to ops too. Not a snow storm, but interesting to see such agreement at 72 hours after the year we've had. Kansas City is going to get destroyed. And yeah, I agree re: model agreement. It's crazy. But that's of course only because we're not getting a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MCI averages more snow than us and has colder winters....not realy a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Kansas City is going to get destroyed. And yeah, I agree re: model agreement. It's crazy. But that's of course only because we're not getting a snowstorm. Although the new (00Z) NAM would say otherwise, I have a feeling the heaviest bands will be south of the KC metro. I say bands because there's little doubt that convection is going to be a player in that trowal zone....probably more than the last event, since there's more potential elevated instability to work with. And with convection comes a snowfall map that's more binary than smooth (feast or famine). ...but not here, again :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MCI averages more snow than us and has colder winters....not realy a big deal Wichita with a #2 then another top 5 would be pretty big. Forecast earlier from them was for another #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It looks like a good time to head to Snowshoe, but it's hard to time the heavy stuff. Based on the models, it looks like they get 3-4" a day for the next 47 days. If I went I'd like to see 6-12" in one day. I'll have to watch how next weekend sets up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Still wondering about next weekend. Signs are kind of there for something. LC and the Wx South guy on Fb keep some hope alive. I am sure it will be heartache and despair. But What is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't see how we get anything substantial in a constant northwest flow after 96hrs. Maybe another moisture-starved clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably have to wait for the march 5-10th window as the pattern starts to break down for a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably have to wait for the march 5-10th window as the pattern starts to break down for a shot. if you count that period, that would be3 or 4 weekend slots that "something" may happen. That is what I mean by "getting old real fast" !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 GFS has a bit of March 1999 action near Mar 9. Tho it looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 GFS has a bit of March 1999 action near Mar 9. Tho it looks like rain. I think we can assume a 0.03" DC split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro gives Atlanta 4+ at the end of the run. That would be fun. Next Sun sorta maybe worth watching per Euro as is that storm at the end of the run if it's not so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 One thing seems in agreement at this point. March is looking cooler than normal. Just a kick in the jewels after another crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro gives Atlanta 4+ at the end of the run. That would be fun. Next Sun sorta maybe worth watching per Euro as is that storm at the end of the run if it's not so suppressed. Yeah, big difference from 0z to 12z with the storm off the coast. Bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 One thing seems in agreement at this point. March is looking cooler than normal. Just a kick in the jewels after another crappy winter. seems to happen a lot in NINA winters nonetheless, a beautiful day and the sun feels real warm that said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if something becomes at least "threatening" to us over the next 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wichita with a #2 then another top 5 would be pretty big. Forecast earlier from them was for another #2. Euro gives Atlanta 4+ at the end of the run. That would be fun. Next Sun sorta maybe worth watching per Euro as is that storm at the end of the run if it's not so suppressed. this usually happens in Ninos, but I figure to add insult to injury something will cut off in dixie in late March or Early April. Atlanta will get 3" of daytime paste on like March 26th and the Smokies will get 16-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 this usually happens in Ninos, but I figure to add insult to injury something will cut off in dixie in late March or Early April. Atlanta will get 3" of daytime paste on like March 26th and the Smokies will get 16-24" And we'll get drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 this usually happens in Ninos, but I figure to add insult to injury something will cut off in dixie in late March or Early April. Atlanta will get 3" of daytime paste on like March 26th and the Smokies will get 16-24" but since this is more of a NINA than anything else, it'll trend north, though not necessarily far enough or possibly too far given this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And we'll get drizzle? Yep. The rain/snow line will make it to Fredericksburg but the DC Metro will be pissy light rain due to the lack of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For those west of the BR, Tuesday could be messy. Certainly would also appear that it's not an outcome that's set in stone as to type. From LWX: 1...TIMING. THE TREND OF THE SREF OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ONSET ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS...AND QUICK PEEK AT LATEST 12Z ECMWF ALL SUPPORT THIS SLOWING OF PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO HOLD OFF MAINLY AFTER 12Z...EXCEPT UP TO CHC POPS IN THE FAR SW ZNS AFTER 09Z. THE 09Z SREF/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ALL PRETTY CLOSE IN DEPICTING A BAND OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND BY AFTERNOON HAVE DEFINITE POPS CWA WIDE. 2...WINTER P-TYPE AND AREAL EXTENT. 18Z NAM CONTS TO DEPICT A SGFNT PD OF FZRA FOR THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...WHILE THE 18Z GFS BUFR DATA PAINTS IT AS MOSTLY SNOW. ECMWF TKNS SCHEMES SUGGEST A MELTING LYR BUT COLD LLVLS TO START...WARMING EVERYTHING DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE STRONG WAA OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING...WOULD EXPECT A WINTRY MIX...WITH SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. FOR THE DC BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW AT ONSET... BUT WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. 3...QPF LIQUID AMOUNTS. PROGS SUGGEST A RANGE BETWEEN ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE INCH CWA-WIDE. 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTS ABOUT A 5-7 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE QPF WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SINGLE FRONTEGENTICAL FORCED BAND. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER FOR QPF TO DEPART AND KEEPS SOME QPF THROUGH 06Z WED. ALTHO THERE ARE STILL ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESSY CONDS IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...SPCLY TUE MRNG. HV ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE CNTYS. WHILE THE TRIGGER ATTM WUD BE ICE ACCUM...KEPT RATHER GENERIC WORDING IN CASE LATER SOLNS LEAN MORE TWD GFS /IE...SNW- SLEET/. WL BE MONITORING LATER GDNC IN CASE THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED EWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We should watch the 129-144 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We should watch the 129-144 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361765623.522716.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tonight's 00z EURO has officially made me give up...We finally get a raging -NAO, +PNA, but the STJ dries up...Feel like banging my head on a wall really hard, oh wait I have been for the last 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trough axis just a bit too Far East for a weak vort to do the trick. We need a strong vort to amp it up and have it go neg but of course we get 10 days with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And this gave us nothing...I froze my ass off while getting pelted with cold drizzle and a few snow flurries at RFK Stadium (exhibition baseball). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tuesday looks quite wet. NAM is pretty consistent around 1.3-1.4", GFS is 0.6-0.8", SREFs around an inch, Euro somewhere around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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