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Late February 2013 Mid-Long Range Discussion


TUweathermanDD

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Looks like a great upslope setup commencing after whatever goes by on Tuesday and continuing . . . . wow, for many many days. Next weekend may be our best snow weekend of the season out this way.

Garrett County area?

I was on vacation on Lake Shore Drive the weekend of the Super Bowl and it snowed every single day (usually in the midafternoon/evening-- or at least that's when it really stuck good. Amazing that as cold a climate as it is sun angle still had an an effect at least IMO)

Altogether I'd say it snowed about 8 inches. One night it really came down good. Headed out, it was really stunning to go from 219 in McHenry to, oh about 3 or 4 miles east on 68 from its junction with 219. Not even a dusting in most places much furthe east than Frostburg...

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Looks like a great upslope setup commencing after whatever goes by on Tuesday and continuing . . . . wow, for many many days. Next weekend may be our best snow weekend of the season out this way.

The trend in discussion threads over the past 3 years:

Poster 1 (Mitchnick): this winter is hopeless...can we at least get an inch? Is that too much to ask? Can't ignore the seasonal trend at this point. Maybe we'll get a fluke, but at this point I've seen enough to know we are screwed

Poster 2 (Matt): GFS comes in even drier...why do we even bother looking at the NAM? It is a horrific model...just terrible.

Poster 3 (WinterWxLuvr): I wouldn't give up on tomorrows event just yet. I just looked at the GFS individual ensemble members, and 3 or 4 give us a few inches. Why all the doom and gloom?

Poster 4 (Wes): (Extremley detailed and interesting meteorological analysis that explains why our snow prospects are not great).

Poster 5 (Ji): Euro day 8 shows SECS

Poster 6 (Ian): Euro day 8 has a storm well out to sea verbatim...I guess there's some potential, but taken literally no one sees a flake

Poster 7 (Vinylfreak/TUweatherman/whoever): In reference to the day 2 light rain event that could begin as a few flakes, these posters throw out "first calls" that have BWI, DCA, and IAD all getting 1-2" of snow, despite no model showing such a scenario

Poster 8 (Yoda): The RAP is interesting for tomorrow. Hi-Res NAM also looks interesting

Posters 9-20: Some form of complaining about how this winter sucks

Then....

JONJON: : Got 6" last night, snow still falling, will probably tack on another 2-3." The rest of the week looks cold and snowy as well, hoping we can pick up an additional few inches with the next system. Overall it's been a great month/winter.

No disrespect intended to any of the posters mentioned--just having some fun. :) Just find it funny that we always have a lot of doom and gloom posts, and then JonJon always comes in to make us feel worse as he shows off his snow totals: :P

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The trend in discussion threads over the past 3 years:

Poster 1 (Mitchnick): this winter is hopeless...can we at least get an inch? Is that too much to ask? Can't ignore the seasonal trend at this point. Maybe we'll get a fluke, but at this point I've seen enough to know we are screwed

Poster 2 (Matt): GFS comes in even drier...why do we even bother looking at the NAM? It is a horrific model...just terrible.

Poster 3 (WinterWxLuvr): I wouldn't give up on tomorrows event just yet. I just looked at the GFS individual ensemble members, and 3 or 4 give us a few inches. Why all the doom and gloom?

Poster 4 (Wes): (Extremley detailed and interesting meteorological analysis that explains why our snow prospects are not great).

Poster 5 (Ji): Euro day 8 shows SECS

Poster 6 (Ian): Euro day 8 has a storm well out to sea verbatim...I guess there's some potential, but taken literally no one sees a flake

Poster 7 (Vinylfreak/TUweatherman/whoever): In reference to the day 2 light rain event that could begin as a few flakes, these posters throw out "first calls" that have BWI, DCA, and IAD all getting 1-2" of snow, despite no model showing such a scenario

Poster 8 (Yoda): The RAP is interesting for tomorrow. Hi-Res NAM also looks interesting

Posters 9-20: Some form of complaining about how this winter sucks

Then....

JONJON: : Got 6" last night, snow still falling, will probably tack on another 2-3." The rest of the week looks cold and snowy as well, hoping we can pick up an additional few inches with the next system. Overall it's been a great month/winter.

No disrespect intended to any of the posters mentioned--just having some fun. :) Just find it funny that we always have a lot of doom and gloom posts, and then JonJon always comes in to make us feel worse as he shows off his snow totals: :P

Nicely done.

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Euro's got nada thru the run in case you were wondering.

Didn't look that close at Tue. Think it's pretty much a non event for most of us.

One the low fizzles next week the euro shows basically bone dry coast to coast for days and days. Lotsa cold though. Completely wasted of course.

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One the low fizzles next week the euro shows basically bone dry coast to coast for days and days. Lotsa cold though. Completely wasted of course.

Yeah we are starting to get into that dry period the ensembles have had on the op runs. I think we might be toast around here at least.

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One of the  maddening features of the next ten days is that the only day forecast to be above normal is the only day with significant precipitation (next Wednesday).  This is true of both the ECMWF deterministic and the NAEFS ensembles. 

 

I guess we'll have to "focus" on the March 3/4 fantasy event that has been in and out of the (very) long range model solutions for a few days now. 

 

Although I suppose we could get wrap around flurries next Thursday (ha!). 

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Serious? @360?

 

Flat pattern but something's there... lol. Euro is good but doubt it's much better than the GFS that far out. However, the -4C 850 refuses to go north of us on every run. Still mostly a dry pattern across the CONUS.

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The storm on Tuesday may have the best model agreement across the board than any other storm I've seen this year. Ensembles are good matches to ops too.

Not a snow storm, but interesting to see such agreement at 72 hours after the year we've had.

Kansas City is going to get destroyed.

 

And yeah, I agree re: model agreement.  It's crazy.  But that's of course only because we're not getting a snowstorm.

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Kansas City is going to get destroyed.

And yeah, I agree re: model agreement. It's crazy. But that's of course only because we're not getting a snowstorm.

Although the new (00Z) NAM would say otherwise, I have a feeling the heaviest bands will be south of the KC metro. I say bands because there's little doubt that convection is going to be a player in that trowal zone....probably more than the last event, since there's more potential elevated instability to work with. And with convection comes a snowfall map that's more binary than smooth (feast or famine).

...but not here, again :-(

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