easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 gfs long range is a joke, we should'nt even bother with it.....never verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Why do y'all keep looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 then so be it. weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like a great upslope setup commencing after whatever goes by on Tuesday and continuing . . . . wow, for many many days. Next weekend may be our best snow weekend of the season out this way. Garrett County area? I was on vacation on Lake Shore Drive the weekend of the Super Bowl and it snowed every single day (usually in the midafternoon/evening-- or at least that's when it really stuck good. Amazing that as cold a climate as it is sun angle still had an an effect at least IMO) Altogether I'd say it snowed about 8 inches. One night it really came down good. Headed out, it was really stunning to go from 219 in McHenry to, oh about 3 or 4 miles east on 68 from its junction with 219. Not even a dusting in most places much furthe east than Frostburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just have to laugh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just have to laugh.... can you give a link to this please. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 can you give a link to this please. thanks Here you go... http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 it's the awful GGEM, but there is no doubt in my mind that such a scenario will occur. You can probably lock it in. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just have to laugh....Nemo part 2MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Even in the less than stellar 1990-91 - 1996-97 period, we averaged 14.6" with 95-96 and 9.4" without...worst winter was 6.6" (that was a too strong Nino w/out blocking) and IAD only had one winter in the stretch below 14".....You remove the Nina stink from a period and you can get on a semi-roll even with a weak nina thrown in the middle....If we can get a Nino/neutral period, we will do fine....I think at this point everyone accepts that an 8-12" DCA winter and a 14-18" winter for the closer burbs is certainly more than acceptable we need to get a nino next winter AND then not follow it up immediately with a moderate to strong Nina period...if we cant do that, I think eventually our mean and median wont be remotely close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like a great upslope setup commencing after whatever goes by on Tuesday and continuing . . . . wow, for many many days. Next weekend may be our best snow weekend of the season out this way.The trend in discussion threads over the past 3 years:Poster 1 (Mitchnick): this winter is hopeless...can we at least get an inch? Is that too much to ask? Can't ignore the seasonal trend at this point. Maybe we'll get a fluke, but at this point I've seen enough to know we are screwed Poster 2 (Matt): GFS comes in even drier...why do we even bother looking at the NAM? It is a horrific model...just terrible. Poster 3 (WinterWxLuvr): I wouldn't give up on tomorrows event just yet. I just looked at the GFS individual ensemble members, and 3 or 4 give us a few inches. Why all the doom and gloom? Poster 4 (Wes): (Extremley detailed and interesting meteorological analysis that explains why our snow prospects are not great). Poster 5 (Ji): Euro day 8 shows SECS Poster 6 (Ian): Euro day 8 has a storm well out to sea verbatim...I guess there's some potential, but taken literally no one sees a flake Poster 7 (Vinylfreak/TUweatherman/whoever): In reference to the day 2 light rain event that could begin as a few flakes, these posters throw out "first calls" that have BWI, DCA, and IAD all getting 1-2" of snow, despite no model showing such a scenario Poster 8 (Yoda): The RAP is interesting for tomorrow. Hi-Res NAM also looks interesting Posters 9-20: Some form of complaining about how this winter sucks Then.... JONJON: : Got 6" last night, snow still falling, will probably tack on another 2-3." The rest of the week looks cold and snowy as well, hoping we can pick up an additional few inches with the next system. Overall it's been a great month/winter. No disrespect intended to any of the posters mentioned--just having some fun. Just find it funny that we always have a lot of doom and gloom posts, and then JonJon always comes in to make us feel worse as he shows off his snow totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Just have to laugh.... Cuban Missile. I'm rooting for it is all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The trend in discussion threads over the past 3 years: Poster 1 (Mitchnick): this winter is hopeless...can we at least get an inch? Is that too much to ask? Can't ignore the seasonal trend at this point. Maybe we'll get a fluke, but at this point I've seen enough to know we are screwed Poster 2 (Matt): GFS comes in even drier...why do we even bother looking at the NAM? It is a horrific model...just terrible. Poster 3 (WinterWxLuvr): I wouldn't give up on tomorrows event just yet. I just looked at the GFS individual ensemble members, and 3 or 4 give us a few inches. Why all the doom and gloom? Poster 4 (Wes): (Extremley detailed and interesting meteorological analysis that explains why our snow prospects are not great). Poster 5 (Ji): Euro day 8 shows SECS Poster 6 (Ian): Euro day 8 has a storm well out to sea verbatim...I guess there's some potential, but taken literally no one sees a flake Poster 7 (Vinylfreak/TUweatherman/whoever): In reference to the day 2 light rain event that could begin as a few flakes, these posters throw out "first calls" that have BWI, DCA, and IAD all getting 1-2" of snow, despite no model showing such a scenario Poster 8 (Yoda): The RAP is interesting for tomorrow. Hi-Res NAM also looks interesting Posters 9-20: Some form of complaining about how this winter sucks Then.... JONJON: : Got 6" last night, snow still falling, will probably tack on another 2-3." The rest of the week looks cold and snowy as well, hoping we can pick up an additional few inches with the next system. Overall it's been a great month/winter. No disrespect intended to any of the posters mentioned--just having some fun. Just find it funny that we always have a lot of doom and gloom posts, and then JonJon always comes in to make us feel worse as he shows off his snow totals: Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro's got nada thru the run in case you were wondering. Didn't look that close at Tue. Think it's pretty much a non event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro's got nada thru the run in case you were wondering. Didn't look that close at Tue. Think it's pretty much a non event for most of us. One the low fizzles next week the euro shows basically bone dry coast to coast for days and days. Lotsa cold though. Completely wasted of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 CheesyPoofs, Good job. It made me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One the low fizzles next week the euro shows basically bone dry coast to coast for days and days. Lotsa cold though. Completely wasted of course. Yeah we are starting to get into that dry period the ensembles have had on the op runs. I think we might be toast around here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah we are starting to get into that dry period the ensembles have had on the op runs. I think we might be toast around here at least. Day 10 on the Euro shows some promise, but by then, it will be March and no longer part of this thread. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro extrapolated would be a Hecs day 12.I'll give it a 1/200 chance of verifying. In other words it's the best shot we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro extrapolated would be a Hecs day 12.I'll give it a 1/200 chance of verifying. In other words it's the best shot we have. Good....I see that we are on the same page. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One the low fizzles next week the euro shows basically bone dry coast to coast for days and days. Lotsa cold though. Completely wasted of course. We can only hope there's plenty of wind to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One of the maddening features of the next ten days is that the only day forecast to be above normal is the only day with significant precipitation (next Wednesday). This is true of both the ECMWF deterministic and the NAEFS ensembles. I guess we'll have to "focus" on the March 3/4 fantasy event that has been in and out of the (very) long range model solutions for a few days now. Although I suppose we could get wrap around flurries next Thursday (ha!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro extrapolated would be a Hecs day 12.I'll give it a 1/200 chance of verifying. In other words it's the best shot we have. I doubt it or Ji would've gone on and on regarding the Euro control thingamabob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The trend in discussion threads over the past 3 years: Poster 1 (Mitchnick): this winter is hopeless...can we at least get an inch? Is that too much to ask? Can't ignore the seasonal trend at this point. Maybe we'll get a fluke, but at this point I've seen enough to know we are screwed Poster 2 (Matt): GFS comes in even drier...why do we even bother looking at the NAM? It is a horrific model...just terrible. Poster 3 (WinterWxLuvr): I wouldn't give up on tomorrows event just yet. I just looked at the GFS individual ensemble members, and 3 or 4 give us a few inches. Why all the doom and gloom? Poster 4 (Wes): (Extremley detailed and interesting meteorological analysis that explains why our snow prospects are not great). Poster 5 (Ji): Euro day 8 shows SECS Poster 6 (Ian): Euro day 8 has a storm well out to sea verbatim...I guess there's some potential, but taken literally no one sees a flake Poster 7 (Vinylfreak/TUweatherman/whoever): In reference to the day 2 light rain event that could begin as a few flakes, these posters throw out "first calls" that have BWI, DCA, and IAD all getting 1-2" of snow, despite no model showing such a scenario Poster 8 (Yoda): The RAP is interesting for tomorrow. Hi-Res NAM also looks interesting Posters 9-20: Some form of complaining about how this winter sucks Then.... JONJON: : Got 6" last night, snow still falling, will probably tack on another 2-3." The rest of the week looks cold and snowy as well, hoping we can pick up an additional few inches with the next system. Overall it's been a great month/winter. No disrespect intended to any of the posters mentioned--just having some fun. Just find it funny that we always have a lot of doom and gloom posts, and then JonJon always comes in to make us feel worse as he shows off his snow totals: well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 So it looks like DCA is going to end up with 1.5" this winter? Awesome. Thanks GL lows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z Euro ens mean still chilled thru end. Actually 360 (Mar 10) looks about as good as it does all run, some hint of a storm to the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z Euro ens mean still chilled thru end. Actually 360 (Mar 10) looks about as good as it does all run, some hint of a storm to the sw. Serious? @360? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Serious? @360? Flat pattern but something's there... lol. Euro is good but doubt it's much better than the GFS that far out. However, the -4C 850 refuses to go north of us on every run. Still mostly a dry pattern across the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 So it looks like DCA is going to end up with 1.5" this winter? Awesome. Thanks GL lows! wasnt that the total from last year too?? Another really crappy winter. This is getting old real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 wasnt that the total from last year too?? Another really crappy winter. This is getting old real fast. Definitely chasing next year. Gonna put the Jeep to good use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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