Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Excellent - I'll be in Nawlins.. Best chance of the year I'm not sure what normal highs are down there but it's chilly. Never gets close to 60 and even highs in the 40's for a couple days. Euro is cold for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JMA @ 144 hours looks awesome. Low forming off the SC coastline http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Temps suck. We're in the 40's. Run only out to 180. Massive ridge in the west but trough here is too broad. bad axis. Shocking development. Crazy axis @ 500. Basically runs positive tilt from texarkana to cape cod. Story of the year. Well, we've always got the "it's an interesting pattern" setting up to fall back on. God, I've got a bad attitude right now. Any chance that whatever or whoever is responsible for this will allow us to get up off the mat and crawl to the door? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JMA @ 144 hours looks awesome. Low forming off the SC coastline http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif So this is where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol...I don't think the idea is that far fetched though. If the progged block is correct, it could force the storm to redevelop farther south. Bluewave in another thread mentioned how the current MJO correlates with a bit of a stronger SE ridge would actually help in forming the storm farther west. I said it a bunch of times today all over but we need separation between the day 4-5 low and the one that forms that storm day 7...Plus we need the wave to be stronger. At least the models are starting to show real threats instead of jumbled bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So this is where we are now. Actually, no. We, some, are worse. We, some, me, actually hoped that the NAM was right yesterday. Can looking at the JMA be any worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 JMA @ 144 hours looks awesome. Low forming off the SC coastline http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif still a miss..i saw 168. Hits New England but not us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol...I don't think the idea is that far fetched though. If the progged block is correct, it could force the storm to redevelop farther south. Bluewave in another thread mentioned how the current MJO correlates with a bit of a stronger SE ridge would actually help in forming the storm farther west. I said it a bunch of times today all over but we need separation between the day 4-5 low and the one that forms that storm day 7...Plus we need the wave to be stronger. At least the models are starting to show real threats instead of jumbled bs. The only thing progged that is ever correct for this area is the dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 still a miss..i saw 168. Hits New England but not us Damn, placement of the 500mb trough looks like it wouldn't miss us, but whatever...threat is there IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The only thing progged that is ever correct for this area is the dry. Hey, I live in Philadelphia, I feel your pain, but the 12z runs offered hope, thats all you can ask for at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Damn, placement of the 500mb trough looks like it wouldn't miss us, but whatever...threat is there IMO. And threats have been there at range for months. I don't think I need to tell you the outcome of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Will the proximity to the gulf coast of the closed 500mb low at 96hrs make the transfer to the coastal wave faster? What I mean is does the proximity of one low to another decrease the time required for energy transfer, allowing the coastal to amplify further south/sooner? Edited to add: I am asking because the position of the upper low on the Euro looks a good deal closer to the mid-atlantic area than the GFS. Thus the reason the GFS doesn't amplify the southern vort at all and the Euro does, though late for us? Just wondering if I should be rooting for a more southerly upper low placement/movement around 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Will the proximity to the gulf coast of the closed 500mb low at 96hrs make the transfer to the coastal wave faster? What I mean is does the proximity of one low to another decrease the time required for energy transfer, allowing the coastal to amplify further south/sooner? Edited to add: I am asking because the position of the upper low on the Euro looks a good deal closer to the mid-atlantic area than the GFS. Thus the reason the GFS doesn't amplify the southern vort at all and the Euro does, though late for us? Just wondering if I should be rooting for a more southerly upper low placement/movement around 96hrs. It's more of an issue of the strength of the primary. Bascially, we need it to pretty much die and transfer but that's not going to happen. As long as the ull or 850 low stay intact near the great lakes it's going to pull way to much warm air ahead of the secondary and also not allow the secondary to pull down any cold air. At this point there is no hope for the secondary to do anything except rain on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z euro ens mean still chilly and boring.. forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is it common for a surface low to be sitting right under a 500 low as depicted by the GFS at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is it common for a surface low to be sitting right under a 500 low as depicted by the GFS at 84 hours? it happens.. low gets stacked, occludes, weakens etc. good news is new england looks to get screwed by the weekend coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it happens.. low gets stacked, occludes, weakens etc. good news is new england looks to get screwed by the weekend coastal. Days and days of snow is a no go on the gfs too. Lotta sw's spread out all over the west too. The one I like keeps getting squished. I keep hoping the medicine ball backs up a little. It could but who knows. Lots of stuff needs to happen first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it happens.. low gets stacked, occludes, weakens etc. good news is new england looks to get screwed by the weekend coastal. I was noticing that the ens means of the models have the low further east and perhaps a bit further south that the ops. Maybe we can get the low further east this time before the weakening occurs, get some precip in here. We look to be in a similar temp setup mon night as we were last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I was noticing that the ens means of the models have the low further east and perhaps a bit further south that the ops. Maybe we can get the low further east this time before the weakening occurs, get some precip in here. We look to be in a similar temp setup mon night as we were last night. It's going to be a similar gig to what we just had but the waa shield seems to be a lot wetter. I suppose some of us could score on the front with your area being in a good spot. We could split hairs with temps being warm and blah blah blah but no sense trying to figure that out until Sunday. Cold be all rain. Could be a mixed bag. What else can you say. Bob: "Ok hp in an ok spot for some cad" WnWxlvr "not worried about temps. give me precip" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's going to be a similar gig to what we just had but the waa shield seems to be a lot wetter. I suppose some of us could score on the front with your area being in a good spot. We could split hairs with temps being warm and blah blah blah but no sense trying to figure that out until Sunday. Cold be all rain. Could be a mixed bag. What else can you say. Bob: "Ok hp in an ok spot for some cad" WnWxlvr "not worried about temps. give me precip" Well, you know me, I can't have any confidence until that precip is locked up. I already feel confident that we will have temps conducive to "winter" weather for a period of time. It's early but this one does seem more capable of getting precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Screw me nah mother nature been doing a good enough job for the past 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's going to be a similar gig to what we just had but the waa shield seems to be a lot wetter. I suppose some of us could score on the front with your area being in a good spot. We could split hairs with temps being warm and blah blah blah but no sense trying to figure that out until Sunday. Cold be all rain. Could be a mixed bag. What else can you say. Bob: "Ok hp in an ok spot for some cad" WnWxlvr "not worried about temps. give me precip" i don't recall how wet this one was at day 5 but it was pretty wet at one pt so not sure moisture at range means anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Screw me Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If New England gets worked over again, I'm forming a chasing posse. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i don't recall how wet this one was at day 5 but it was pretty wet at one pt so not sure moisture at range means anything It was really wet at 7+, but by day 5 had started drying rapidly. You made the over/under statement of 0.25, and I responded "duh" or something like that. I think I'm slightly more hopeful of wetter this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It was really wet at 7+, but by day 5 had started drying rapidly. You made the over/under statement of 0.25, and I responded "duh" or something like that. I think I'm slightly more hopeful of wetter this go around. Yeah I just looked at maps in similar time (well only one run) and it was a lot drier by then. My early guess is we'll have more temp issues on Tuesday than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Time to watch SNE get duped by the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah I just looked at maps in similar time (well only one run) and it was a lot drier by then. My early guess is we'll have more temp issues on Tuesday than today. Hard to say on temps. We won't be as cold heading into the event as we were this time, but it always seems we trend down as we get closer. We will have another high in a good spot as well. Of course I'm talking early. No way to hold the cold all the way through unless the low takes over fast on the coast which doesn't look likely. The Christmas storm is a good example of the cold winning. It was warm everywhere Christmas Day, but managed to stay below freezing that whole event. That's out here of course. I know you guys didn't fare as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Pretty hard to see how we could go the next 10-12 days without at least a minor event if the gfs ensembles are to be believed. All look cold, and most look stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Pretty hard to see how we could go the next 10-12 days without at least a minor event if the gfs ensembles are to be believed. All look cold, and most look stormy. Because it'll warm up enough just in time for the precip to arrive, then cool down afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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