Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:40 PM, Quasievil said: We certainly all know this stands little chance of verifying but it sure is pretty to look at. except it would more than likely miss us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:55 PM, Ian said: except it would more than likely miss us Given that map, we would want it on the SC coastline at that latitude. However, it's an interesting time-frame. It could be our last shot of the winter, but given how this winter has gone, I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:55 PM, Ian said: except it would more than likely miss us Deep trough, arctic feed - desperate times call for desperate measures. Looking at a map like that 10 days out, which probably STILL wouldn't give us much, is better than nothing. Spring is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:23 PM, Ian said: That is a weird sys.. 4-8 stripe from ND thru MO and into SC/NC with spots of more. It's shifted north since yesterday... and that's really all we should take away from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 8:43 PM, mitchnick said: and that's really all we should take away from this run I'm willing to bet it will become a sheared low centered over the GL by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 8:43 PM, mitchnick said: and that's really all we should take away from this run This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:41 PM, stormtracker said: This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:59 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG It's amazing that mother nature can't seem to find "x" in the equation "x + high QPF=DC Snowstorm". She keeps answering incorrectly "warm temps". Darn it. Would be nice to see another cartopper though. Hopefully it will be powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:59 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG that's been there off and on.. tricky way to get snow of value. anything light during the day isn't doing anything. tho the heavies seems to come at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 10:14 PM, Ian said: that's been there off and on.. tricky way to get snow of value. anything light during the day isn't doing anything. tho the heavies seems to come at night. Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive. But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year. Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:41 PM, stormtracker said: This time it's gonna happen! Just you wait and see. I think we'll have threats over the next couple or 3 weeks, but that doesn't mean I think we will necessarily see anything from those threats threats have not been our problem this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:59 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 10:18 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's nothing more than a shot of energy coming around the big ball. Not much chance at surface reflection and 700 isn't that impressive. But it has been there off and on. Big spinning stacked low could toss us a bone. Cartopper+ is about as optimistic as you can be. Breaking the 1" threshold is apparently impossible this year. Edit: There is some very modest lift between 0z-6z. Doesn't change a cartopper+ but at least it's something to watch that isn't 100 days in the future. An I looking at the wrong model? Seems pretty warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 1st storm. Too much ridging off the southeast coast.2-5th storm not enough ridging off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well, it is about time for the final kick in the nuts where it gets cold just long enough to force everything south of us to give Dixie a HECS followed by a cutter that gives us warm rain only to redevelop off the coast and dump on SNE. Sound like a plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 9:59 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs now says cartopper+ on thurs. 24 hour precip ending 21z. All snow. 18gfsprecip.JPG Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/26/2013 at 12:22 AM, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? Well, Bob has mentioned crack often lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/26/2013 at 12:22 AM, stormtracker said: Am I missing something? Isn't it above freezing at the surface the entire time? The surface is almost always above freezing last couple years. But It's not a torch. Likely mid to upper 30s and dropping to near freezing. All I said was cartopper+ but less than an inch. Tough crowd in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/26/2013 at 1:26 AM, Bob Chill said: The surface is almost always above freezing last couple years. But It's not a torch. Likely mid to upper 30s and dropping to near freezing. All I said was cartopper+ but less than an inch. Tough crowd in here. LOL, just friends giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's great how every run keeps us cool/cold throughout. stupid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I see we're getting NAM'd again at 00z. The difference between it and the GFS even this close in is always laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/26/2013 at 3:59 AM, lsukev5 said: I see we're getting NAM'd again at 00z. The difference between it and the GFS even this close in is always laughable. Way way too warm however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So is anybody seeing what I'm seeing on the GFS? I mean, it's likely nothing..but the h5 changes from 12z vs 18z vs now are kinda interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Um. Dammit..heights can recover quick enough..but that's a huge change from 18/12z. I'm trying yall...I'm trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Why can't that trof axis be just east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I can't even get Bob Chill to join my delusions. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 4:34 PM, zwyts said: I think PSU mentioned these factors and maybe some others, but the trough axis kind of sucks for the next week+....low confidence, but I think our best shot of a legit storm is just before the Block/PNA break down so around the March 8th-10th period, especially if we have a proper 50-50....Of course a storm around then, if it should happen is a significant risk to mix or rain in the cities, though it is just about the end of the window where we could get an all snow event given the right factors.. I agree, our best window seems to be after March 8th and perhaps even into mid month if the GFS is right and the whole thing keeps reloading. The trough axis the next week just sucks and nothing diving into it is strong enough to sharpen it up and pull it back. I think as this starts to break down we will get a storm to pop on the east coast between March 8-16 but the question is will it be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On 2/26/2013 at 4:06 AM, stormtracker said: Um. Dammit..heights can recover quick enough..but that's a huge change from 18/12z. I'm trying yall...I'm trying I think we're collectively willing the trough axis to get right and the beast of lp to gtf out of the way. But the battle is stacked hard against us. Maybe nc and seva cash in. Wouldn't that be lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Weekend might still be worth eyeing. I wouldn't give it high odds but faith in pattern evolution past like day 2 or 3 is pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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