TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 In all seriousness, why not? Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 In all seriousness, why not? Go. Good job. NAM just got a bit wetter for me Fri morning, a time I'm convinced snow can fall and accumulate if we can just get some precip. New thread new luck? Never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fri night into sat morning still looks like its worth watching. Yes it's the NAM, but it's getting that 850 line a little closer each time, keeps the surface below freezing, and the ground will have no opportunity to warm between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like Friday except for the lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like Friday except for the lack of precip. Any thoughts on Fri night into Sat morning? It's still cold during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am reissuing my winter forecast as I have seen too much optimism and have received several requests to "keep the weenies in line." Warm/Wet Cold/Dry Thanks, and have a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Larry C throwing us a bone for later next week...though he probably just means eastern Mass, not USA. @LarryCosgrove: http://t.co/sMBUtzw5Dt Houston Weather Forecast; severe wx threats Thurs and Sun/Mon; major storm probable Feb 28 - March 3 eastern 1/2 USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM looks like a decent ice storm just in time for my flight on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Any thoughts on Fri night into Sat morning? It's still cold during that time. Looks like the air is tainted above 850 before the precip even gets here tho if it's dry might get some snow to start.. mainly sleet thru about 12z or so? might get some freezing rain then rain. I guess you can improve on the margins at least tho I don't think it's going to work out as a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM @ 84 hours looks pretty interesting. It has a more robust low over NE which would potentially create a colder storm for the one near Texas. I mean, wouldn't you look at this and be like damn this is a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM @ 84 hours looks pretty interesting. It has a more robust low over NE which would potentially create a colder storm for the one near Texas. I mean, wouldn't you look at this and be like damn this is a good setup. nam.gif Well, I asked in the prior thread about Monday night. The GFS was pretty close for Mon night into Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM @ 84 hours looks pretty interesting. It has a more robust low over NE which would potentially create a colder storm for the one near Texas. I mean, wouldn't you look at this and be like damn this is a good setup. nam.gif except when you loop the 5H map the end of the run is a redux of the beginning with the NS trough poised to move NE thanks to no blocking the way I see the models, they keep replaying the same loosing scenario for us, more or less, hence I fail to see optimism for more than the sake of optimism (aka blind hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like the air is tainted above 850 before the precip even gets here tho if it's dry might get some snow to start.. mainly sleet thru about 12z or so? might get some freezing rain then rain. I guess you can improve on the margins at least tho I don't think it's going to work out as a good event. I was looking at the upper air info for KOKV and all the levels are either below freezing or within 1 degree except the 850 level. I don't even know what level precip generally begins at, or if we might get some evaporational cooling, or if the precip (snow) would just power through marginal levels with heavy precip, but it looks wet with marginal temps. That has to be better than dry with good temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like the air is tainted above 850 before the precip even gets here tho if it's dry might get some snow to start.. mainly sleet thru about 12z or so? might get some freezing rain then rain. I guess you can improve on the margins at least tho I don't think it's going to work out as a good event. I just want a delayed opening so I can sleep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 except when you loop the 5H map the end of the run is a redux of the beginning with the NS trough poised to move NE thanks to no blocking the way I see the models, they keep replaying the same loosing scenario for us, more or less, hence I fail to see optimism for more than the sake of optimism (aka blind hope) Your opinion has been established Mitch....I'm pretty sure we all know how you feel...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Your opinion has been established Mitch....I'm pretty sure we all know how you feel...just sayin my general opinion of the rest of the winter and specific opinion of the NAM are two distinctly separate opinions, but in this case, they do happen to be the same just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Your opinion has been established Mitch....I'm pretty sure we all know how you feel...just sayin I actually sort of disagree with his assessment anyway. It does look like a pretty interesting set up like Hizenburg said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 my general opinion of the rest of the winter and specific opinion of the NAM are two distinctly separate opinions, but in this case, they do happen to be the same just sayin' You do it every year...I'm not gonna argue with you...enjoy your misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You do it every year...I'm not gonna argue with you...enjoy your misery why do you always take objection to discussions of realistic chances of snow? as long as reality isn't part of the discussion, you're fine there does come a time when we really need to discuss realistic chances of snow vs. pure weenie hope and prayer and if realistic discussions of snow chances makes me miserable, then I hope you feel better now that you got that off your chest come on man, it is just the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Larry C throwing us a bone for later next week...though he probably just means eastern Mass, not USA. @LarryCosgrove: http://t.co/sMBUtzw5Dt Houston Weather Forecast; severe wx threats Thurs and Sun/Mon; major storm probable Feb 28 - March 3 eastern 1/2 USA Pffft. He cancelled winter two weeks ago...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I actually sort of disagree with his assessment anyway. It does look like a pretty interesting set up like Hizenburg said. Randy, the 18Z GFS looked very similar to tonight's 84 hr NAM and it became another rainstorm on the GFS and no other model shows anything but rain for us out of that system that along with the fact it looked like a redux of the pattern is why I said what I said http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_090_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Pffft. He cancelled winter two weeks ago...lol Cosgrove is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just for future reference, how I do change the topic description if it is ever warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tracking our Friday "opportunity" feels an awful lot like "clipper fest" part II. Everyone is <.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tracking our Friday "opportunity" feels an awful lot like "clipper fest" part II. Everyone is <.1" At least we are consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well GFS is markedly different 96 vs 102 @ 18z (H5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 850's move even further east at 129. Looks like possible decent snow for Shenandoah Valley. Something new to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 850's move even further east at 129. Looks like possible decent snow for Shenandoah Valley. Something new to watch. Hard to tell without soundings.. could be cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hard to tell without soundings.. could be cold rain You mean this rain? TUE 12Z 26-FEB 3.3 2.3 1003 97 79 0.55 547 545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Our 3/1 storm may be on a milk carton in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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