csnavywx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If the NAM verifies, that would mean that IA would completely miss out. Sorry, just ranting. Does it still look good for Eastcentral Iowa? Stopped reading right about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0z GFS says bust out the umbrellas in Toronto and southern Ontario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0z GFS says bust out the umbrellas in Toronto and southern Ontario! 6z GFS from today was slamming us with 10-12'' lol. Inconsistencies in the GFS have me not putting too much stock in that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 6z GFS from today was slamming us with 10-12'' lol. Inconsistencies in the GFS have me not putting too much stock in that model Lack of cold air is going to be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lack of cold air is going to be an issue We should be fine in E/MI..Dynamical cooling will be our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well I am pretty confident in at least a couple inches next week... probably won't be huge totals from the first part of the storm but the leftovers over the course of the week after will provide some entertainment around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Also FWIW the GGEM misses most of IA and scoots a weaker low through the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The bizarre nature of the evolution of this storm just ups the skepticism with this storm hitting any one area IMO. Models probably won't have a handle on things until about 12-24hrs before the event. The Euro has been great for this area, but it's the only model showing such a robust scenario here. Most others are weaker/further south. Pessimistic/seasonally realistic call for here is another underperformer/miss. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 For what it's worth: Taft actually said "accumulating snow" in regards to this potential storm...... Nonetheless, temps for Mon and Tue, and even Wed, are progged to be near 40 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS keeps backlash Snow showers going until Next Saturday up here! As Csnavy was saying earlier the wraparound could lay down a bit of snow as well.. On the upside, it looks like a candidate for "excessive wraparound" token 1-2" snows on the backside with the rather extreme mid-level vortex wrapping moisture all the way around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 For what it's worth: Taft actually said "accumulating snow" in regards to this potential storm...... Nonetheless, temps for Mon and Tue, and even Wed, are progged to be near 40 around here. That's a shock, he was calling for rain about 6 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The wraparound snow on the 0z GFS is very impressive. Haven't seen anything like that in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ~0.75" of SN with the main thump at ORD on the 0z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Impressive watching the GFS trend colder. At VPZ, 12z was the first run to show anything but rain, the 18z was almost all sleet, and now the 0z is 0.23" IP, 0.54" SN, then another 0.37" of wrap-around SN (I cut the QPF off when it fell to 0.01"/6 hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Some other rough GGEM numbers: DBQ: 0.19" DVN: 0.70" RFD: 0.67" MKE: 0.56" DTW: 0.94" GRR: 0.44" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Storm total snowfall liquid equivalent, saved for posterity: GFS: GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0z Euro is a bit south of the 12z run through 66hr. 1000mb low hugging TX/OK/AR/LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Storm total snowfall liquid equivalent, saved for posterity: GGEM: nice Alek bullseye lakeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 nice Alek bullseye lakeside. About 0.79" Edit: Looks like another strong hit for MCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro looks like a tad weaker version of the GEM, good hit for northern IL pending BL problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro looks good for S/Mi..Looks like the low takes a longer time to transfer/ stays dominant for a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Warm tongue on this run gets up to about Gary at 12z Tuesday (850's of +4 deg C) but gets shunted east as precip moves NNE and you get some cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro looks good for S/Mi..Looks like the low takes a longer time to transfer/ stays dominant for a while.. Yeah the sfc. low is just sitting over Southern Ontario there... either a very very cold rain or nice heavy wet snow event for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Warm tongue on this run gets up to about Gary at 12z Tuesday (850's of +4 deg C) but gets shunted east as precip moves NNE and you get some cooling. Mind giving me raw numbers for VPZ when they come in? Doesn't sound great but let's see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW 00Z FEB232 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.8 1.7 1007 69 82 0.01 551 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -1.8 1004 98 100 0.67 543 540 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.7 1001 96 96 0.21 539 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Mind giving me raw numbers for VPZ when they come in? Doesn't sound great but let's see... Still some precip falling after that I imagine: TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.8 4.6 1005 68 28 0.00 550 547 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.6 -2.6 1002 91 99 0.26 543 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.9 1001 93 37 0.22 539 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -1.9 1000 98 76 0.02 537 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -2.8 1001 99 79 0.01 536 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.0 -4.0 1003 96 96 0.04 537 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.4 -5.6 1005 98 98 0.09 537 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like a cement snow at DPA/ORD, about .70" liquid with temps hugging freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like a cement snow at DPA/ORD, about 70" liquid with temps hugging freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Still some precip falling after that I imagine: TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.8 4.6 1005 68 28 0.00 550 547 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.6 -2.6 1002 91 99 0.26 543 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.9 1001 93 37 0.22 539 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -1.9 1000 98 76 0.02 537 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -2.8 1001 99 79 0.01 536 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.0 -4.0 1003 96 96 0.04 537 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.4 -5.6 1005 98 98 0.09 537 533 Thanks! Looks like it could theoretically be all snow verbatim, with perhaps some sticking issues once the rates tapered off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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