csnavywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I should mention that the slower this thing is, the more likely ORD (and most of IL) will have BL temp issues. Right now, the only "safe" spot is in Iowa or up in Wisconsin (but the storm will have likely weakened enough for a less-than-major snowfall there), unless the NAM/SREF are right (fat chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I should mention that the slower this thing is, the more likely ORD (and most of IL) will have BL temp issues. Right now, the only "safe" spot is in Iowa or up in Wisconsin (but the storm will have likely weakened enough for a less-than-major snowfall there), unless the NAM/SREF are right (fat chance). Hard to argue with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hard to argue with this Yep, DVN's office is understandably optimistic/psyched as they could be in the best position for this storm, having it pass through right before it occludes but far enough NW of the low to limit much of the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z Euro maps still look good for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I can't seem to recall having two storms back to back that started off as nice lake cutters in the SW but occluded/weakened as they got to this area. It seems, in recent past, either we got the big cutter to materialize or the storm went completely south and missed everyone altogether. I would be interested in hearing some met thoughts on why this has been the case over the past week. Is it simply the downstream blocking configuration that is causing this or is there more to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yep, DVN's office is understandably optimistic/psyched as they could be in the best position for this storm, having it pass through right before it occludes but far enough NW of the low to limit much of the WAA. lol, abandoned your suppression worries quickly i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DET LAT= 42.40 LON= -83.00 ELE= 627 12Z FEB222 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 06Z 26-FEB -5.7 0.0 1019 80 27 0.00 558 543 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.8 1.2 1015 76 13 0.00 557 545 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.3 3.4 1008 75 100 0.05 553 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.6 -1.2 1005 98 81 0.56 542 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 1.6 -1.8 1003 95 58 0.09 536 534 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.8 -4.7 1004 96 98 0.01 531 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol, abandoned your suppression worries quickly i see It still technically is suppressed (for here) as by the time it gets up here it loses some of its moisture and is occluding, but I guess I realize there is more potential here. I was going to base some of my thoughts on how the Euro continues to trend, and since it held serve or moved a tad NW from 0z, I won't be worried about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I feel like such a weenie, but... VPZ anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DTX: BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FORMIXED PRECIPITATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAYEVENING. MODELS STILL VARY A BIT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THESYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...ANDHOPE THESE WILL BECOME RESOLVED AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT 24HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND BECOMES SAMPLED BY UPPER AIRNETWORK. SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH LEECYCLOGENESIS OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS BEFORETHE UPPER AND SURFACE SYSTEMS BECOME MORE VIRTUALLY STACKED ANDWEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THEY LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES.TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA STILL VARY...LEADING TOUNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THERMAL FIELDS WILL LOOK LIKE AS FORCING ANDPRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...THOUGH 12Z MODEL SUITE DOESMORE STRONGLY FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MOSTMODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING ALONG INCREASING LOWERLEVELS (AS TIME GOES BY) OF THE WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY ANDTUESDAY...WITH GFS NOW SHOWING STRONG FGEN IN THE MID-LEVELS FOR THEFIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS DOES ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE DGZ ANDWITHIN/BELOW AREA OF LOWEST STATIC STABILITY...ROUGHLY ABOVE600MB...AND WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD PRECIPITATION RATES AT THEFRONT END OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THEAREA...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER THE EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ASWARM AIR IS PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA. DRYSLOT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED IN LATEST EURO/GFS...BUT COULD STILL BEA POSSIBILITY TO CONTEND WITH IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH.WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVEADDED MENTION TO THE HWO...BUT WE ARE STILL A NUMBER OF DAYS OUT ANDTHERE IS A LOT THAT STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If anybody wants a good laugh, read the GRR NWS forecast discussion. They cause me to smack my head ten times...especially the forecasters "JK" and "93". Do any models show it getting THAT warm up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nichols from DVN in full weenie mode in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO LIKELY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS SUGGESTED. NUMEROUS TOOLS SUGGEST MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE WELL OVER 4+ INCHES WITH MOST RELIABLE TOOLS ALL SUGGESTING A SWATH OF 6-12+ INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW THAT RIGHT NOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A IRK-MUS-FEP LINE. THIS SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF PHASING ON THE BACK SIDE OCCURS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SOLUTIONS WITH STRONGER OCCLUSION THEN STRONGER COLD CONVEYOR BELT SUGGESTED AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOME TOOLS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD THRESHOLD FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. THERE IS NO DOUBT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR EVENT LAST 12-18+ HOURS AND LIKELY GREATER THAN THE EVENT THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THAT WILL STRENGTHEN VERSUS A WEAKENING AND FILLING SYSTEM THAT PASSED. ADD WERE IN THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OF A PRONOUNCED SNOW AND NO SNOW LINE...THIS MAKES RISK OF A MAJOR EVENT GREATER. THE DATA AS OF NOW...SUPPORTS AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE A MAJOR WINTER STORM. AREA SNOW TO LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. ARE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO LIKELY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS SUGGESTED. NUMEROUS TOOLS SUGGEST MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE WELL OVER 4+ INCHES WITH MOST RELIABLE TOOLS ALL SUGGESTING A SWATH OF 6-12+ INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW THAT RIGHT NOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A IRK-MUS-FEP LINE. THIS SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF PHASING ON THE BACK SIDE OCCURS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME SOLUTIONS WITH STRONGER OCCLUSION THEN STRONGER COLD CONVEYOR BELT SUGGESTED AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOME TOOLS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD THRESHOLD FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. THERE IS NO DOUBT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR EVENT LAST 12-18+ HOURS AND LIKELY GREATER THAN THE EVENT THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THAT WILL STRENGTHEN VERSUS A WEAKENING AND FILLING SYSTEM THAT PASSED. ADD WERE IN THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OF A PRONOUNCED SNOW AND NO SNOW LINE...THIS MAKES RISK OF A MAJOR EVENT GREATER. THE DATA AS OF NOW...SUPPORTS AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE A MAJOR WINTER STORM. AREA SNOW TO LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. ARE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THIS EVENT. Wow, that sounds exciting! Now read GRR discussion to balance that out. I need some Prozac after reading theirs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Here's GRR TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT SLOWER AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVESSLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. HAVE TAKEN ALL POPS OUT OFTHE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...IN FACT THE REAL PUSH OF PCPN DOES NOTLOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.PCPN TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM NEARST. LOUIS MONDAY NIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO ON TUESDAY. ASTHIS OCCURS WE SHOULD SEE A SURGE OF WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT.SEEMS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITHSNOW AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.THEN THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THECWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WHILE STAYING A MIX IN THE NORTH. MOREFINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST WILL BE LIKELY AS THE SYSTEMAPPROACHES. QPF IS UP AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY...SO IF A COOLER TREND IS REALIZED...ASIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE AND/OR SNOW COULD OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Nichols from DVN in full weenie mode in their AFD Was just going to post that. I love how he say 4-6 with locally 12+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z GFS blows it's load over northern MO then occludes and weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18z GFS blows it's load over northern MO then occludes and weakens. Hmm where have we seen that before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18Z NAM is just another example of why we should stop wasting computer power running it past 48 hours. 18Z GFS is even worse than the 12Z Euro for low level temps. Blasts +2 850s all the way to Iowa. Only place that escapes mixing is MCI-IRK. If you aren't on the NW side of this one AND getting high enough precip rates for a snow island, forget about it. On the upside, it looks like a candidate for "excessive wraparound" token 1-2" snows on the backside with the rather extreme mid-level vortex wrapping moisture all the way around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 18Z NAM is just another example of why we should stop wasting computer power running it past 48 hours. 18Z GFS is even worse than the 12Z Euro for low level temps. Blasts +2 850s all the way to Iowa. Only place that escapes mixing is MCI-IRK. If you aren't on the NW side of this one AND getting high enough precip rates for a snow island, forget about it. On the upside, it looks like a candidate for "excessive wraparound" token 1-2" snows on the backside with the rather extreme mid-level vortex wrapping moisture all the way around the center. bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So who here has heard of the CRAS model? I haven't until today after poking around at the SSEC's website. Anyways, FWIW, here's some plots from the model concerning the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 time to punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So who here has heard of the CRAS model? I haven't until today after poking around at the SSEC's website. Anyways, FWIW, here's some plots from the model concerning the storm.. Never post this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol @ DVN mentioning 12-15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 From what I can see the best snow would be in the eastern 2/3rd's of DVN cwa. Not sure why they are super excited already. Reflux - the CRAS model is the worst of the worst models. Poorer then the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Alek is the new Brad Maynard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Reflux - the CRAS model is the worst of the worst models. Poorer then the NOGAPS.It was discontinued like a decade ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Never post this again. So who wants to be the first to post the NOGAPS or JMA? Alek? Maybe they're the models to hump along with the NAM (obvious sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 So who wants to be the first to post the NOGAPS or JMA? Alek? Maybe they're the models to hump along with the NAM (obvious sarcasm). Make a new contest thread so we can redeem our selves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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