Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The GFS is a global model...both the GFS and Euro are mixing in the city and the NAM has a left blinker on. I'm not sure what your reasoning is, but the consensus for the trough to take on a negative tilt in or just west of the region doesn't scream south trend to me. Euro gives the city probably 9" of cement and the GFS probably half of that. More to your west. I like where I sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like this ends up being mainly rain for the LAF, OKK, Marion crew. On to March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is the Ukie not running? Doesn't appear to be coming in on Meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro gives the city probably 9" of cement and the GFS probably half of that. More to your west. I like where I sit right now. Yep you look good...I'm cautiously optimistic but would prefer to be on the northern edge as opposed to the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yep you look good...I'm cautiously optimistic but would prefer to be on the northern edge as opposed to the southern edge. So many classic panhandle hookers for the likes of Milwaukee and Chicago on the 12z GFS Ensembles. Every one but one or two of them would be a great hit for someone in the region (6-12"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like this ends up being mainly rain for the LAF, OKK, Marion crew. On to March! 100% rain. Time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yep you look good...I'm cautiously optimistic but would prefer to be on the northern edge as opposed to the southern edge. Yeah give you/us a bit more of breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yeah give you/us a bit more of breathing room. more breathing room, better ratios, better NE lake fetch, etc. 12z GFS ensembles lend a lot of confidence to a major for someone in the sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Early returns, through 78 hours, suggest 12z Euro will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Northwest it is, slightly. Good enough hit for KC, DSM, QC, Geos, MSN, MKE. ORD probably flirts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Northwest it is, slightly. Good enough hit for KC, DSM, QC, Geos, MSN, MKE. ORD probably flirts... What an interesting storm, looked like it would be suppressed, but as Alek has been concerned about, puts on the left blinker but shortly after that occludes in C or N Illinois. Good for the DVN, MSN, MKE, ORD quadrangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Northwest it is, slightly. Good enough hit for KC, DSM, QC, Geos, MSN, MKE. ORD probably flirts... When its updated to show YYZ could you please post if it's a good hit or not. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Some rough numbers from the GGEM. CID: 0.19" DBQ: 0.21" DVN: 0.48" RFD: 0.56" ORD: 0.76" MKE: 0.51" DTW: 0.93" some sleet GRR: 0.54" LAF: 1.40" some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Any talk of a further southeast track is DOA. The areas outlined above, and further north/northwest, are in the zone for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What an interesting storm, looked like it would be suppressed, but as Alek has been concerned about, puts on the left blinker but shortly after that occludes in C or N Illinois. Good for the DVN, MSN, MKE, ORD quadrangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Any talk of a further southeast track is DOA. The areas outlined above, and further north/northwest, are in the zone for this one. totally agree...I think we're pretty much at the limit how far south this can go. EDIT: I'll pass on the Euro, warm and then backlash. Guess it's back to riding the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 When its updated to show YYZ could you please post if it's a good hit or not. Thanks! Safely all rain through 132 hours. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 If this storm pans out it would more than likely put MKE over 20" for the month of February, it would definitely make up for our horrible Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 If this storm pans out it would more than likely put MKE over 20" for the month of February, it would definitely make up for our horrible Dec and Jan. Definitely would be labeled a backloaded winter by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro looks very similar to 00z run..Does anyone have output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Safely all rain through 132 hours. Sorry. really? wow wasn't expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hell of a New England blizzard on the 12z Euro at 168 hours and beyond, naturally. It's trying to push a little snow west into Toronto...so there's your "good" part of this run, toronto blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DPA TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.0 2.3 1005 77 96 0.05 548 544 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.4 -1.6 1000 93 70 0.41 539 539 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -2.2 999 98 91 0.14 533 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -3.3 1001 98 95 0.09 532 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Safely all rain through 132 hours. Sorry. Guess we really can't buy a snowstorm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Safely all rain through 132 hours. Sorry. Do you have access to p-type maps? Looks like the 2m 0c line is just to our north through 117 and 850s are well below freezing. I can't see 925. Is it torching there? Otherwise, it could very well be wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DPA TUE 12Z 26-FEB -1.0 2.3 1005 77 96 0.05 548 544 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.4 -1.6 1000 93 70 0.41 539 539 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -2.2 999 98 91 0.14 533 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -3.3 1001 98 95 0.09 532 532 Do you have DTW or DET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Do you have access to p-type maps? Looks like the 2m 0c line is just to our north through 135 and 850s are well below freezing. I can't see 925. Is it torching there? Otherwise, it could very well be wet snow. You may be right. I was just looking at 2m temps, which looked "safely" above. Maybe someone with the text data for YYZ can post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Do you have access to p-type maps? Looks like the 2m 0c line is just to our north through 117 and 850s are well below freezing. I can't see 925. Is it torching there? Otherwise, it could very well be wet snow. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.7 -4.2 1022 86 29 0.00 559 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.2 0.2 1017 71 19 0.00 558 544 WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.6 -3.3 1013 80 100 0.05 554 543 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.7 1009 97 98 0.52 545 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -2.3 1006 98 93 0.12 539 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.7 -4.2 1022 86 29 0.00 559 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.2 0.2 1017 71 19 0.00 558 544 WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.6 -3.3 1013 80 100 0.05 554 543 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.7 1009 97 98 0.52 545 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -2.3 1006 98 93 0.12 539 535 Thanks Adjos. I'd have to know what's going on between the sfc and 850 to be sure, but with sfc temps of 0.4c-0.6c I'm thinking that's a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Trend has been slower/stronger. NAM is almost 15 hours faster than the ECMWF at this point, which is very significant for this time range. Still favoring the EC/GEM solution, but being a SW Low, I can envision even more slow-downs, unless that upstream kicker manifests closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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