wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't forget me Oops, with your avatar, it was hard to remember you were actually a snow lover. J/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 00z Euro looks great for IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Then we are due!!! Even for storms that dont show on that list, its actually comical seeing how often...ESPECIALLY in the paltry 1930s-1950s, winters best storms were in Mar or even Apr. Here the 4"+ snows after March 15th since Ive been measuring (1996). Apr 5/6, 2009: 7.2" DTW, 4.6" MBY Mar 27/28, 2008: 4.0" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 21/22, 2008: 7.3" DTW, 6.8" MBY Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3" DTW, 6.7" MBY Mar 16/17, 2004: 3.9" DTW, 5.9" MBY Apr 7, 2003: 4.9" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 25/26, 2002: 4.7" DTW, 8.0" MBY Mar 19/20, 1996: 5.8" DTW, 7.0" IMBY Interesting the March 1998 storm isn't on your list. I guess you were mostly PL/ZR with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM is depressing, but why I even looked at it is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM is depressing, but why I even looked at it is beyond me. Don't worry it will be showing an MSP special tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 seriously though, i'd lock in the NAM now if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM is a whiff south for LAF. That's all you need to know...toss it, mock it, forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Interesting the March 1998 storm isn't on your list. I guess you were mostly PL/ZR with that. That stotm had hours of zr before turning to snow. 2.2" imby and 1.9" at dtw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 seriously though, i'd lock in the NAM now if I could. You are not kidding that would be a I-80 North special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NAM is a whiff south for LAF. That's all you need to know...toss it, mock it, forget about it. not really, it's in the process of a hard left...you'd get smoked with something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 not really, it's in the process of a hard left...you'd get smoked with something like this Eh, I looked at it quickly. You're right. Looks like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Eh, I looked at it quickly. You're right. Looks like sleet. This is an interesting setup...as a weenie, I'm pulling hard for the snowpack to lead to a further south low ejection. The Euro is verbatim a quality hit for ORD but with just about all solutions showing the trough taking a neg tilt in this area, it's a prime candidate for underdone WAA and p-type problems. Something like the NAM where the low is much further south before the inevitable(?) hard left turn is ideal. It's such a weenie move to count on snowpack but I think I'm going to need a little help avoiding mixing or even all rain. Either way, the potential for a slowdown and pivot point in the region with somewhat slow movement makes this one a good candidate for decent totals in the sub forum. Really liking S. WI at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z GFS much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z GFS much further south. yeah it's correcting back to the pack here....good hit for Geos north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This is an interesting setup...as a weenie, I'm pulling hard for the snowpack to lead to a further south low ejection. The Euro is verbatim a quality hit for ORD but with just about all solutions showing the trough taking a neg tilt in this area, it's a prime candidate for underdone WAA and p-type problems. Something like the NAM where the low is much further south before the inevitable(?) hard left turn is ideal. It's such a weenie move to count on snowpack but I think I'm going to need a little help avoiding mixing or even all rain. Either way, the potential for a slowdown and pivot point in the region with somewhat slow movement makes this one a good candidate for decent totals in the sub forum. Really liking S. WI at the moment. Nice analysis. Haven't really looked at it much myself, but seems farther south is a legit trend worth watching. I-80 and north is definitely in the ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Really like this threat for the Chicago crew. Going to have to watch the pivot and dry slot areas. I'm with alek around the il and wi boarder is my jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Really like this threat for the Chicago crew. Going to have to watch the pivot and dry slot areas. I'm with alek around the il and wi boarder is my jackpot zone Wave spacing looks pretty ideal...it's close enough behind to prevent heights from cranking too much but doesn't have something right on it's tail. The lake is also about as cold as it has been all winter so I shouldn't torch with ENE winds. A few more consensus shifts south and I'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't feel better, dude. When you do we bust. Go full anti-weenie and we'll get GHD part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z GFS much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Last I saw, as far as a forecast for Monday went, Butler and Caplan had a rain/snow mix in the forecast. I was concentrating on this past non-event from yesterday/today, that I wasn't even aware more was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Feeling cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_120.gif Nice little Pac-Man feature eating up QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I don't know if this was post but the 0z Euro ensemble mean runs from just west of PAH (999mb) then to DTX (1003) with a transfer in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z GGEM has kind of a weird evolution, but looks like an ORD hit. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html'>http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't be fooled Alek, this is looking like a WC Illinois/N Missouri to Chicago special to me, perhaps favoring the south side of the metro. The recent trends have me thinking this is unlikely to trend back north again, and the GFS will continue to trend toward the global models and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe a stretch, but like Alek's Illini win= snowstorm the next day or two, could this be a Marquette win over Syracuse= snowstorm shortly after? Bowme and I could dream of that combo anyway. did you (or do you) go to Marquette? I graduated in'99. Monday evening would be awesome with a win over Syracuse and a snowstorm for ORD/MKE. If those 2 things happened, my winter is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 A better look at the 12z GGEM, for entertainment only: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb'>http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb I'd think our Ontario posters would do very well too. And Syracuse by 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 did you (or do you) go to Marquette? I graduated in'99. Monday evening would be awesome with a win over Syracuse and a snowstorm for ORD/MKE. If those 2 things happened, my winter is complete. Yep, at one point the logo was my avatar. I have season tickets this year (probably my last year of that). We shall see, but I've been hoping the timing would be right after the game were this storm to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Don't be fooled Alek, this is looking like a WC Illinois/N Missouri to Chicago special to me, perhaps favoring the south side of the metro. The recent trends have me thinking this is unlikely to trend back north again, and the GFS will continue to trend toward the global models and the NAM. The GFS is a global model...both the GFS and Euro are mixing in the city and the NAM has a left blinker on. I'm not sure what your reasoning is, but the consensus for the trough to take on a negative tilt in or just west of the region doesn't scream south trend to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 The GFS is a global model...both the GFS and Euro are mixing in the city and the NAM has a left blinker on. I'm not sure what your reasoning is, but the consensus for the trough to take on a negative tilt in or just west of the region doesn't scream south trend to me. Between the snowpack argument, which is valid in this case, and some models now taking the system well south as it is (even though the NAM has its left blinker on, it looks like it would be a N Indiana/L Michigan special), I am not seeing much evidence for anything but a constant track or a southeast trend. Now it is true that there is less of a blocking ridge than this last storm, so that is the one thing in favor of a nice left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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