Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.1 3.4 1007 74 18 0.00 551 545 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.5 -3.1 1003 91 99 0.30 543 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -3.8 1003 98 80 0.41 536 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.0 -3.8 1002 99 98 0.11 533 531 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.3 -4.8 1003 95 98 0.04 533 530 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -6.2 1005 86 96 0.05 532 528 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.3 -8.1 1008 85 99 0.05 531 525 THU 06Z 28-FEB -5.0 -7.9 1008 92 89 0.01 531 524 0.97" Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'd argue that this is all snow, that +0.2 layer isn't going to make much difference and with the high precip rates it is probably overdone. Probably one of those low ratio deals though. 8:1-10:1 Cement style snow. I would feel better if the surface low stayed to the south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'd argue that this is all snow, that +0.2 layer isn't going to make much difference and with the high precip rates it is probably overdone. Probably one of those low ratio deals though. 8:1-10:1 Yeah I'd say that's all snow for DTW. It was 0.2° during the 7th storm and that didn't make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ORD TUE 12Z 26-FEB -0.6 -4.0 1001 81 100 0.17 542 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.0 -4.8 998 92 96 0.57 535 537 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.4 999 99 94 0.14 533 534 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Stupid question but are 850's on the left or right? 2nd column. So -4° at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cement style snow. I would feel better if the surface low stayed to the south of here. I am not picky, I will take any snow we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ORD TUE 12Z 26-FEB -0.6 -4.0 1001 81 100 0.17 542 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.0 -4.8 998 92 96 0.57 535 537 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.4 999 99 94 0.14 533 534 . Looks like all snow at ORD on this run or close to it with temps for a time just above freezing. 850 mb low track is favorable for I-80 and north and the seemingly unfavorable MSLP track is deceiving because the system is occluding by that point and all the heavier precipitation would have occurred by the time it tracks over Chicago. Those thermal profiles would definitely support mostly if not all cement snow for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 EURO shows 0.0-0.5°C for ORD during the main thump. 1.09" MKE, 1.19" for ORD. Is that including this storms qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is that including this storms qpf? No, but it includes some lighter snow showers a day or two after the main thump. It is not all at once, but about 0.75" is from the main 12-18 hour thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Is that including this storms qpf? Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 right 2nd column. So -4° at the start. Thanks! So 9" of tree-plastering, squirrel-squashing, car-caking cement then. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro with a 18" bullseye near DVN/cycloneville (counting tonights snow too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Thanks! So 9" of tree-plastering, squirrel-squashing, car-caking cement then. Nice. Near exactly what I had 2 weeks ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 thanks much, Geos and WiWxWeenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 DTX TIMING/LOCATION DISPARITIES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THIS NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE JUST HOW FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS SYSTEM CAN LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BEFORE BEGINNING THE TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST AS ITS ENERGY IS STRETCHED EASTWARD INTO LARGE PV ANOMALY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH THE VARIED MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A GOOD BET THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL. ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM WILL BE THE MARGINALLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE MODELS ALL COOL OVERALL TEMPERATURES AOB H85 TO BELOW 0C WITH TIME (-3C TO -5C AT THE H85 LEVEL) THROUGH MOST LIKELY BOTH EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES...THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN CERTAINLY MAY IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE DAY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE BREADTH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AT THAT POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 LOT THIS MORNING...THERE IS A BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES OF A DEEPENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THOUGH STILL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE FASTER GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW IT IS DEPICTING...AND COULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY. WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GEFS SOLUTION SPREAD...AND THE GEFS MEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TRACK...ALBEIT FASTER...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AS WELL AS FAVOR THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF/GEM. REGARDING MODEL PERFORMANCE OF LATE HOWEVER...THERE MAY YET BE SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COMES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND IS SAMPLED BY OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Btw what worked for me RE: Bolding text, is that I pasted what I wanted quoted, then highlighted it. Then clicked the quote button, then you can bold the text inside the quote bubble via the bold button. That should work for those who were having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Also the 6z GFS hard trended toward the Euro with respect to the 500mb vorticity, the surface low however is still way to the North compared to the 500mb low position. I'd expect further adjustments by the GFS going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Also the 6z GFS hard trended toward the Euro with respect to the 500mb vorticity, the surface low however is still way to the North compared to the 500mb low position. I'd expect further adjustments by the GFS going forward. Personally, I'd lock in the 6z GFS and throw away the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Personally, I'd lock in the 6z GFS and throw away the key. Also lock in the 0z EURO. Solid 10-12'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I know climo here (and for a lot of folks outside of the upper parts of this subforum) becomes increasingly hostile to bigger snowstorms after the first week of March. With few exceptions, mid March-April is just top up slush in Toronto. So here's hoping we can all make the most of what could be the last serious threat of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I know climo here (and for a lot of folks outside of the upper parts of this subforum) becomes increasingly hostile to bigger snowstorms after the first week of March. With few exceptions, mid March-April is just top up slush in Toronto. So here's hoping we can all make the most of what could be the last serious threat of the season. I would say its more the first 2 weeks of March. And we have had some classic late season storms before. Havent had one since 2008 so Im feeling it this year Of course, I said the same thing last year Detroit top 10 snowstorm on after March 15th 01.) 24.5" - Apr 6, 1886 02.) 9.9" - Mar 16/17, 1973 03.) 9.5" - Mar 21/22, 1916 04.) 9.5" - Mar 19/20, 1883 05.) 9.2" - Mar 26/27, 1934 06.) 9.0" - Mar 14/15, 1912 07.) 8.3" - Mar 17/18, 1973 08.) 8.2" - Mar 21, 1888 09.) 7.7" - Mar 30/31, 1881 10.) 7.7" - Mar 22/23, 1968 11.) 7.5" - Mar 21/22, 1932 12.) 7.4" - Apr 5/6, 1982 13.) 7.3" - Mar 20/21, 1983 14.) 7.3" - Mar 21/22, 2008 15.) 7.2" - Apr 5/6, 2009 16.) 7.1" - Mar 21/22, 1992 17.) 6.5" - Mar 26/27, 1913 18.) 6.0" - Apr 7, 1894 19.) 6.0" - May 9, 1923 20.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1930 21.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1933 Also...since 1881....ON or AFTER March 20th... 58 storms have dropped 3"+ 41 storms have dropped 4"+ 26 storms have dropped 5"+ The region has had some massive spring storms before. 2013 the year to see another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I would say its more the first 2 weeks of March. And we have had some classic late season storms before. Havent had one since 2008 so Im feeling it this year Of course, I said the same thing last year Detroit top 10 snowstorm on after March 15th 01.) 24.5" - Apr 6, 1886 02.) 9.9" - Mar 16/17, 1973 03.) 9.5" - Mar 21/22, 1916 04.) 9.5" - Mar 19/20, 1883 05.) 9.2" - Mar 26/27, 1934 06.) 9.0" - Mar 14/15, 1912 07.) 8.3" - Mar 17/18, 1973 08.) 8.2" - Mar 21, 1888 09.) 7.7" - Mar 30/31, 1881 10.) 7.7" - Mar 22/23, 1968 11.) 7.5" - Mar 21/22, 1932 12.) 7.4" - Apr 5/6, 1982 13.) 7.3" - Mar 20/21, 1983 14.) 7.3" - Mar 21/22, 2008 15.) 7.2" - Apr 5/6, 2009 16.) 7.1" - Mar 21/22, 1992 17.) 6.5" - Mar 26/27, 1913 18.) 6.0" - Apr 7, 1894 19.) 6.0" - May 9, 1923 20.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1930 21.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1933 Also...since 1881....ON or AFTER March 20th... 58 storms have dropped 3"+ 41 storms have dropped 4"+ 26 storms have dropped 5"+ The region has had some massive spring storms before. 2013 the year to see another? Notice only a couple of those storms are recent though. Off the top of my head, the only siggy snowfalls (let's say >4") that occurred after March 15th here in the last 15 years or so were March 23, 2011 (5.9"), and March 21, 1998 (~6-10" Pearson/downtown). There was also the April 2003 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 We have the closest thing to a widespread snowpack (including areas south of the current projected model track) in the central region we've seen in a longtime...we might see some minor shifts south with the baroclinic zone going forward but an early guess is this looks good for RFD and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe a stretch, but like Alek's Illini win= snowstorm the next day or two, could this be a Marquette win over Syracuse= snowstorm shortly after? Bowme and I could dream of that combo anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Notice only a couple of those storms are recent though. Off the top of my head, the only siggy snowfalls (let's say >4") that occurred after March 15th here in the last 15 years or so were March 23, 2011 (5.9"), and March 21, 1998 (~6-10" Pearson/downtown). There was also the April 2003 ice storm. Then we are due!!! Even for storms that dont show on that list, its actually comical seeing how often...ESPECIALLY in the paltry 1930s-1950s, winters best storms were in Mar or even Apr. Here the 4"+ snows after March 15th since Ive been measuring (1996). Apr 5/6, 2009: 7.2" DTW, 4.6" MBY Mar 27/28, 2008: 4.0" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 21/22, 2008: 7.3" DTW, 6.8" MBY Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3" DTW, 6.7" MBY Mar 16/17, 2004: 3.9" DTW, 5.9" MBY Apr 7, 2003: 4.9" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 25/26, 2002: 4.7" DTW, 8.0" MBY Mar 19/20, 1996: 5.8" DTW, 7.0" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Then we are due!!! Even for storms that dont show on that list, its actually comical seeing how often...ESPECIALLY in the paltry 1930s-1950s, winters best storms were in Mar or even Apr. Here the 4"+ snows after March 15th since Ive been measuring (1996). Apr 5/6, 2009: 7.2" DTW, 4.6" MBY Mar 27/28, 2008: 4.0" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 21/22, 2008: 7.3" DTW, 6.8" MBY Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3" DTW, 6.7" MBY Mar 16/17, 2004: 3.9" DTW, 5.9" MBY Apr 7, 2003: 4.9" DTW, 5.0" MBY Mar 19/20, 1996: 5.8" DTW, 7.0" IMBY 16.5" here over a 3 day period, only if it was 3-4 wks earlier could have been 30"+ 11.0" in less then 6 hrs Probably the best storm I ever witnessed around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 16.5" here over a 3 day period, only if it was 3-4 wks earlier could have been 30"+ 11.0" in less then 6 hrs Probably the best storm I ever witnessed around here Notice I edited to add the 2002 storm. Was a favorite storm of mine for many years and I forget to add it that was a ridiculous cutoff where you probably didnt see a flake. I went to U of M Dearborn and I remember the morning of Mar 27, 2002....I had 8" on the ground and they had 1". Reports of 12" near Dundee in Monroe co. ARB had 0.2" and DTX a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Storm looks like a pig... Lots of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Maybe a stretch, but like Alek's Illini win= snowstorm the next day or two, could this be a Marquette win over Syracuse= snowstorm shortly after? Bowme and I could dream of that combo anyway. Don't forget me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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