Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Kind of reminds me, did TRS from LOT ever get the due credit for the Feb 7th event? He took a pounding, but ended up looking pretty good. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39181-february-6-8th-great-lakes-wintry-storm/page-17 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=92437&source=2 BTW, terrible performance by myself in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Anyway, 18z GFS looked stronger, wetter I mean, at 45, but then weakens as it heads into N IL. Still good enough in the end. Close to an inch of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 NAM trolling me hardcore. Haha... I was looking at that too. Western Calhoun county has 7-9" while East of 69 has 3". Oh NAM... stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Hmm. I thought IWX wasn't going with a watch yet, per Gino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Anyway, 18z GFS looked stronger, wetter I mean, at 45, but then weakens as it heads into N IL. good run for eastern IA but a step back in smount amounts for here. Looks maybe a tad warmer early. NAM/Euro/GEM in better agreement snow amounts wise for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Izzi didnt issue watch THESE LEAVES A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHERE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME RESPECTABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE ITS POSSIBLE THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT AS IT FALLS...AND WHAT DOES ACCUMULATE COULD HAVE A LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIO...POSSIBLY 8:1 OR LESS. FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST IN OUR CWA MOSTLY SNOW LOOKS LIKE A SURER BET...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF TUESDAY AND STILL FAIRLY LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS MEANS AMOUNTS WOULD MOST LIKELY END UP SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. AFTER COORDINATION IWX/MKX ARE HOLING OFF ON A WATCH AND ILX/DVN ARE NOT EXPANDING THEIR WATCH SO AFTER GIVING IT SOME SERIOUS CONSIDERATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DECIDED THAT UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPE AND THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION RAISED ENOUGH DOUBTS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DESPITE NO WINTER STORM WATCH YET...THE THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO STRIKE THE AREA TUESDAY. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DONT REACH WARNING CRITERIA...IF TEMPS DO MANAGE TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SNOW RATES GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN IMPACTS COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WET SNOW IS NOT TYPICALLY VERY DRIFTABLE...SO WOULD BE A WIND WHIPPED FALLING SNOW MOST LIKELY. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING INTO A SOLID OR EVEN HIGH END ADVISORY EVENT AND IMPACT-WISE AN ARGUMENT COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN BE MADE TO BEND THE WARNING CRITERIA AND GO WITH A WARNING...BUT SEEING AS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY A 4TH PERIOD EVENT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE AND GET HEADLINES OUT PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING WHICH STILL GIVES WELL OVER 24 HOURS LEAD TIME. AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP PIVOTS THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE LIGHTER AND LOWER IMPACT SO REALLY DIDN`T TAKE THAT MUCH INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN CONSIDERING A POSSIBLE WATCH FOR TUESDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE SPS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT WINTER STORM TUESDAY. IZZI he is by far the best we have here in Chicago, but I disagree with him on this one. To me this is what a WSW is for. Exactly. He just completely explained WHY most WOULD issue a watch for this system, but didn't... and said that possibility for a VERY SIGNIFICANT event is there... Uhhh well then issue a watch! Warn the public of the "possibility". Being a firefighter, the public is interesting. They will B**** if there isn't a watch or warning, but if there was then atleast they saw it "and it wasn't that bad"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Looks good. BTW, just poking fun. These NWS mets are obviously highly skilled and know much more than any weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Looks good. Screen Shot 2013-02-24 at 4.52.37 PM.png Added hilarity if MKX ended up posting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Izzi is one if the best there is. Take into account what happened with the last system and the many issues this this system, being cautious is the way to go. Yea, it's only a watch, but there's no harm waiting until the evening or early morning shift for a WSW. yup...izzi knows his shtuff! my concern is with the whole winter weather headline setup regardless of what office it is....this system has certainly slowed compared to what was being models 4 or 5 runs ago...definetly plenty of time/shifts for the offices to get the word out under the current criteria set forth via the way the headlines are setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I think the lack of a WSW, at least for now, isn't a bad idea. I trust what Izzi has to say in the AFD. As a frequent read of the AFD on the LOT website, I honestly think Izzi does the best job, and his forecasts are pretty good. There appears to be, for the moment, some issues with precip type, and temps. Right now, temps for the Tues-Fri period are above freezing for the CWA, so I can understand their desire to hold off on a warning for now. Personally, I would like to see one, but I would also like to see the marginal temps get dropped about 5 degrees or so in the coming day or two, especially if the storm digs a bit more south .. Just heard the forecast on WGN radio about 10 minutes ago. They are saying it's going ot be a mix of rain, sleet, snow, and high winds. In other words, a mess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Added hilarity if MKX ended up posting one. They're not posting one, per the AFD. Matter of fact, they don't have any kind of statements up at all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 gapwsw.jpg "Shakes head"... So apparently the storm is going to jump over LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 They're not posting one, per the AFD. Matter of fact, they don't have any kind of statements up at all right now. were thinking of going with winter weather advisory but Izzo talked them out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 They're not posting one, per the AFD. Matter of fact, they don't have any kind of statements up at all right now. AFD also said IWX wasn't going to either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 AFD also said IWX wasn't going to either.. mke FOR THE 30 HOUR PERIOD FROM ABOUT 18Z TUE THROUGH 12Z WED I HAVE ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM IN THE SOUTHEAST TO JUST UNDER 5 AT MADISON/SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 3 IN MQT COUNTY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY EXPECT THESE NUMBERS TO FLUCTUATE. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THIS DECISION WILL WAIT FOR LATER SHIFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The storm is still about 42hrs away from Chicago. Can definitely see holding off on a watch. Especially when low ratios and potential early mixing is thrown into the mix. That combined with seasonal trends of under-performing systems I'd say conservatism is the way to go. EDIT: We still have tonight's 00z, tomorrow's 12z/00z batches, AND Tuesday's 12z suites to go before the storm reaches Chicago. Def agree with Mr. Izzi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The storm is still about 42hrs away from Chicago. Can definitely see holding off on a watch. Especially when low ratios and potential early mixing is thrown into the mix. That combined with seasonal trends of under-performing systems I'd say conservatism is the way to go. EDIT: We still have tonight's 00z, tomorrow's 12z/00z batches, AND Tuesday's 12z suites to go before the storm reaches Chicago. Def agree with Mr. Izzi. Would agree with you but it looks silly when IWX and GRR already have WSW out. Bad office to office coordination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Seasonal trends of "under-performing" storms should be a non-starter. I mean, Chicago's run of "bad luck" shouldn't be a deciding factor in issuing a Watch. If the meteorology (forecasted) of the current system doesn't fit the criteria, then don't do anything I guess. Every storm is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Just chiming in about the lack of a watch here, it may look funky on the WWA map, but I think what Gino did is very reasonable and prudent. I wrote earlier that I thought he would issue one, but really you can go either way, because the thermal profiles are very marginal, and the fact is, people know a storm is coming. Had the antecedent airmass been colder, would have been a much better case for a watch at this juncture. It does appear there was some misunderstanding in the collab process between LOT and IWX from reading the AFDs. I'm really scratching my head a bit about IWX hoisting a watch for their entire CWA given the uncertainty and the fact that based off today's guidance, not only will a large swath of the IWX CWA likely at least mix, I wouldn't be surprised that many areas go over to a plain rain. In fact, the layered max wet bulb temps on the 12z Euro are +3 to +5 for the southern 1/2 to 2/3 of the IWX CWA during the heaviest precip, which is entirely too warm to support snow and the strength of the WAA (which is even often underdone by guidance) suggest that they may not even come close to the 1/4" ice accums needed for a watch for the areas they expect to see mainly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kord 18z nam bumps ORD to 10" with temps hovering at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Why do the models continue to show a pocket of much less moisture for the Muskegon area and northward? Down sloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Haha... I was looking at that too. Western Calhoun county has 7-9" while East of 69 has 3". Oh NAM... stop it. It does that to the Muskegon area ALL the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Why do the models continue to show a pocket of much less moisture for the Muskegon area and northward? Down sloping? Clearly, the models must hate Muskegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 15z SREF plumes mean took a big jump up.. DVN- 7.5" ORD- 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kord 18z nam bumps ORD to 10" with temps hovering at 31. temps start at 30 at precip onset, that will have to be watch as dews sit in the mid 20's on the NAM as precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Clearly, the models must hate Muskegon. Lol.... Can always count on you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 15z SREF plumes mean took a big jump up.. DVN- 7.5" ORD- 8.5" If you don't mind what is the 15z SREF for YYZ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Need to bring back the heavy snow warnings? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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