February 25-26 Winter Storm

[Harry]

6-8" in northeast IL with a 10" lolli close to the lake.

 

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_078.gif

 

NAM trolling me hardcore.

[IWXwx]

Yep IWX is issuing a watch, starting one county north of me.

[janetjanet998]

I think they should have some kind of headline too, i'm just snarking you

LOT has not even issued the afternoon update yet....

[A-L-E-K]

hard to say but NAM sure looks to show some LE...thermals are crap but it sure looks like a little extra moisture getting tossed back

[Ajdos]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

334 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

...A WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A

PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN

MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF

THE SURFACE LOW. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A

BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME. THE AIRMASS WILL

NOT BE TOO TERRIBLY COLD THOUGH AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A WET

AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE

INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF

HEAVY WET SNOW TO ACCUMULATE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS

STORM SYSTEM AND THE LOCATIONS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE MORE

PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT

TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR MAY WARM ENOUGH

TO CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN AND THUS DRAMATICALLY CUT DOWN ON

ACCUMULATIONS.

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-251000-

/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.130226T1700Z-130227T1100Z/

LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...

DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE

334 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

* SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES.

IMPACTS...

* RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POOR VISIBILITIES MAY LEAD TO

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PUT STRESS ON TREES AND POWER

LINES...CAUSING SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST

FORECASTS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.

VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

[A-L-E-K]

LOT has not even issued the afternoon update yet....

 

Ok.

 

We're discussing a comment from a few pages back re: a LOT forecaster leaning against headlines.  

[weatherbo]

I think they should have some kind of headline too, i'm just snarking you

and a SWS doesn't garner the same puvlic attention a WSW would. it will look embarrassingly funny if IWX has a watch, GRR and DTW, yet LOT doesn't..... but whatever.

[snowstormcanuck]

On this run it looks like the dry slot should stay south of us.

 

No it doesn't. Notice how all the QPF shuts off after 15z Wed. You can see it using the H7 plots as well. NAM seems to be the most aggressive with how much latitude the primary low gains before being absorbed into the coastal, so we have the fact that's an outlier on our side. Regardless, a very nice hit slot or no slot. 

[Chicago WX]

Yep IWX is issuing a watch, starting one county north of me.

 

Demarcation line of "no fun" in Indiana is coming into focus. 

[ILSNOW]

mke holding off on winter weather advisory

[Chicago WX]

ILX hedging on the Watch in their CWA, citing "warm" temps as the main limiting factor, but will hold onto it for now.

[snowstormcanuck]

Includes some of the wrap around but very pretty to look at:

 

[IWXwx]

Demarcation line of "no fun" in Indiana is coming into focus. 

 

This is becoming lol worthy.

 

Now, after 'coordination', they've decided to issue the watch for all of IWX, even though they don't think the southern tier will reach warning criteria.

[cyclone77]

yeah, 1-3 seems like an Alek call for sure

 

[snowstormcanuck]

So if LOT doesn't end up going with a WSW, is there going to be a gap in the spatial continuity of WSWs from lower MI through IA/MO?

[harrisale]

Very juicy NAM run but the coastal still looks collateral. We'll come close to slotting if it were to verify.

 

Snowfall map seems to back that up. Very sharp cutoff just south of Lake Ontario. Nice 12" inch area right over my backyard hehe. Again, hopefully I will be north enough to see some significant snowfall out of this. Looks like it will be a closer call for YYZ than here.

 

[Allsnow]

000

FXUS63 KLOT 242059

AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

259 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

156 PM CST

GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY LARGELY ON TRACK. DID FURTHER REDUCE

CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS TODAY ANTICIPATING A SUNNY AFTERNOON. THE

LATE FEB SUN ALREADY HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO ITS THING

WARMING US UP AND COMMENCING THE MELTING PROCESS. HAVE NUDGED HIGH

TEMPS UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST HAS

THINGS WELL IN HAND.

AFTER TAKING A PRELIMINARY PERUSAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE HAVENT SEEN

ANY BIG SURPRISES REGARDING THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...STILL LOOKS LIKE

A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS

APPROACHING AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA OVER

PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF AND

FURTHER ACCESS REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY

DECISION...BUT MAY NEED TO AT LEAST CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH

FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

NEW SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

IZZI

[Chicago WX]

This is becoming lol worthy.

 

Now, after 'coordination', they've decided to issue the watch for all of IWX, even though they don't think the southern tier will reach warning criteria.

 

Then you're back in the game...technically. Congrats!

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowfall map seems to back that up. Very sharp cutoff just south of Lake Ontario. Nice 12" inch area right over my backyard hehe. Again, hopefully I will be north enough to see some significant snowfall out of this. Looks like it will be a closer call for YYZ than here.

 

 

KW-Guelph-Caledon-York is going to be the sweet spot in south central Ontario. Honestly, at this point you have very little to worry about in terms of thermals or p-type.

[ILSNOW]

Izzi didnt issue watch

 

THESE LEAVES A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WHERE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME RESPECTABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GIVEN THE HIGH SUN
ANGLE ITS POSSIBLE THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT AS IT
FALLS...AND WHAT DOES ACCUMULATE COULD HAVE A LOW SNOW:LIQUID
RATIO...POSSIBLY 8:1 OR LESS. FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST IN OUR CWA
MOSTLY SNOW LOOKS LIKE A SURER BET...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF TUESDAY
AND STILL FAIRLY LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS MEANS AMOUNTS WOULD MOST
LIKELY END UP SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

AFTER COORDINATION IWX/MKX ARE HOLING OFF ON A WATCH AND ILX/DVN
ARE NOT EXPANDING THEIR WATCH SO AFTER GIVING IT SOME SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DECIDED THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPE AND THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
RAISED ENOUGH DOUBTS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DESPITE NO WINTER STORM
WATCH YET...THE THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM
TO STRIKE THE AREA TUESDAY. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DONT REACH
WARNING CRITERIA...IF TEMPS DO MANAGE TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND SNOW RATES GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN IMPACTS COULD BE VERY
SIGNIFICANT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WET
SNOW IS NOT TYPICALLY VERY DRIFTABLE...SO WOULD BE A WIND WHIPPED
FALLING SNOW MOST LIKELY. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING INTO A SOLID OR EVEN HIGH END
ADVISORY EVENT AND IMPACT-WISE AN ARGUMENT COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN
BE MADE TO BEND THE WARNING CRITERIA AND GO WITH A WARNING...BUT
SEEING AS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY A 4TH PERIOD EVENT THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE AND
GET HEADLINES OUT PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING WHICH STILL GIVES WELL
OVER 24 HOURS LEAD TIME.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP PIVOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE LIGHTER AND LOWER IMPACT SO
REALLY DIDN`T TAKE THAT MUCH INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN CONSIDERING A
POSSIBLE WATCH FOR TUESDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE SPS TO CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT WINTER STORM
TUESDAY.

IZZI
 

 

he is by far the best we have here in Chicago, but I disagree with him on this one. To me this is what a WSW is for.

[Thundersnow12]

18z NAM colder than the 12z Euro at ORD, .80"+ liquid through 60hr and still snowing

 

TUE  1P 26-FEB   -0.7    -1.9     1005      97      98    0.21     545     541   
TUE  7P 26-FEB   -0.3    -3.9     1002      96      99    0.24     540     538   
WED  1A 27-FEB  -0.6    -5.8     999        97      96    0.11     537     537   
WED  7A 27-FEB  -0.8    -7.2     999        96      95    0.08     533     534   
WED  1P 27-FEB  -0.1    -8.0    1000       94      92    0.08     531     531   
WED  7P 27-FEB   0.2    -7.8    1004       96      97    0.10     534     531   

[harrisale]

KW-Guelph-Caledon-York is going to be the sweet spot in south central Ontario. Honestly, at this point you have very little to worry about in terms of thermals or p-type.

 

Certainly feeling lucky on this one that's for sure. Definitely concerned with risk of power outages given the gust potential on this storm and the obviously heavy snow.

 

[weatherbo]

Izzi didnt issue watch

 

THESE LEAVES A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS. WHERE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME RESPECTABLE SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY. THE

MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GIVEN THE HIGH SUN

ANGLE ITS POSSIBLE THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE SNOW COULD MELT AS IT

FALLS...AND WHAT DOES ACCUMULATE COULD HAVE A LOW SNOW:LIQUID

RATIO...POSSIBLY 8:1 OR LESS. FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST IN OUR CWA

MOSTLY SNOW LOOKS LIKE A SURER BET...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF TUESDAY

AND STILL FAIRLY LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS MEANS AMOUNTS WOULD MOST

LIKELY END UP SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.

AFTER COORDINATION IWX/MKX ARE HOLING OFF ON A WATCH AND ILX/DVN

ARE NOT EXPANDING THEIR WATCH SO AFTER GIVING IT SOME SERIOUS

CONSIDERATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DECIDED THAT

UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPE AND THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION

RAISED ENOUGH DOUBTS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DESPITE NO WINTER STORM

WATCH YET...THE THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM

TO STRIKE THE AREA TUESDAY. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DONT REACH

WARNING CRITERIA...IF TEMPS DO MANAGE TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW

FREEZING AND SNOW RATES GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN IMPACTS COULD BE VERY

SIGNIFICANT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WET

SNOW IS NOT TYPICALLY VERY DRIFTABLE...SO WOULD BE A WIND WHIPPED

FALLING SNOW MOST LIKELY. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH

PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM TURNING INTO A SOLID OR EVEN HIGH END

ADVISORY EVENT AND IMPACT-WISE AN ARGUMENT COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN

BE MADE TO BEND THE WARNING CRITERIA AND GO WITH A WARNING...BUT

SEEING AS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY A 4TH PERIOD EVENT THERE IS STILL

TIME FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE AND

GET HEADLINES OUT PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING WHICH STILL GIVES WELL

OVER 24 HOURS LEAD TIME.

AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP PIVOTS THROUGH

TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF

SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL

ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE LIGHTER AND LOWER IMPACT SO

REALLY DIDN`T TAKE THAT MUCH INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN CONSIDERING A

POSSIBLE WATCH FOR TUESDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE SPS TO CONTINUE TO

HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT WINTER STORM

TUESDAY.

IZZI

 

 

he is by far the best we have here in Chicago, but I disagree with him on this one. To me this is what a WSW is for.

I can only guess that there's a lot of politics and expense that goes into honking a storm and then it not materialize for a city like CHI.  They are obviously way way cautious.

[janetjanet998]

I can only guess that there's a lot of politics and expense that goes into honking a storm and then it not materialize for a city like CHI.  They are obviously way way cautious.

yet the Detriot metro is now under a watch and the storm is "further away"

[Chitown Storm]

he is by far the best we have here in Chicago, but I disagree with him on this one. To me this is what a WSW is for.

 

sounds like politics for sure. What's worse....issuing a WSW and things not materializing,  or not alerting the public and a storm cause major problems? 

[Thundersnow12]

I think there is no harm in waiting till the 0z runs to decide whether to issue a watch.

[Chicago Storm]

Izzi is one if the best there is.

Take into account what happened with the last system and the many issues this this system, being cautious is the way to go. Yea, it's only a watch, but there's no harm waiting until the evening or early morning shift for a WSW.

[Thundersnow12]

18z 4km NAM

 

[Stevo6899]

Izzi is one if the best there is.

Take into account what happened with the last system and the many issues this this system, being cautious is the way to go. Yea, it's only a watch, but there's no harm waiting until the evening or early morning shift for a WSW.

There's no harm in issuing a watch no matter which way you look at it.

[Hoosier]

I think there is no harm in waiting till the 0z runs to decide whether to issue a watch.

It goes back to the confidence level...based on latest model runs, how can another office (say IWX) have enough confidence to go with a watch but LOT doesn't? The watch product is available for a reason. I can see where you're coming from to some extent but it just looks inconsistent when you have offices in every direction already going with a watch.