Stebo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Quite amazing how far apart the GFS and the Euro are on this one, I mean they aren't even close right now, especially with the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DVN.... EDIT: dunno why it's all hyperlink...sorry bouts that how'd you get it to bold? Won't let me. Anyways, of course Nichols wrote that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 how'd you get it to bold? Won't let me. Anyways, of course Nichols wrote that lol there were lots of references to "lots" in that AFD.... bolding? just highlighted what i wanted bolded and then clicked the big "B" .... but then again...it also hyperlinked everything when i did that...so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 there were lots of references to "lots" in that AFD.... bolding? just highlighted what i wanted bolded and then clicked the big "B" .... but then again...it also hyperlinked everything when i did that...so.... yeah doing that hasn't worked for me lately, not sure if it's my browser or what. and of course now it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Stale/highly modified air mass will likely lead to boundary layer temp issues with this system for just about everybody unless precip rates are high enough to cool the column for snow. Definitely a candidate for "snow island" syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Stale/highly modified air mass will likely lead to boundary layer temp issues with this system for just about everybody unless precip rates are high enough to cool the column for snow. Definitely a candidate for "snow island" syndrome. The 12z euro would be a very big heavy wet snow for here I believe. Im sure someone will get blasted with wet snow, if the storm materializes as shown by the foreign models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 this storm has WAY more potential for us here in the midwest for many reasons than this current storm. for one it will be strengthening instead of weakening like this one. the closed low appears to dig a lot further south leading to sfc low development much further south. this system wont be running into a massive high this time that is currently over the Great Lakes. Per the SPC D5 severe outlook, they sound like they are favoring a GL cutter low which would be great for a good chunk of people. def a storm to keep an eye on. sounds like Euro/Gem have best handle on it so far. most offices threw out gfs do to phasing/moisture issues. GFS is def the most north of all the models. NAO is suppose to stay negative which favors a strong southern jet but i cant remember if PNA is suppose to be positive or negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS further south some...weaker with the low and stronger w/ the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GFS further south some...weaker with the low and stronger w/ the coastal Too Northern stream dominant and it tries to drive into what is left of the current system like it did with the current system and the previous system. What ended up verifying was a much further South solution. The GGEM and Euro are seeing this, the GFS is very slowly trending toward that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ukie has come in a touch South as well compared to the 12z run from earlier today, GFS is alone right now on it's depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 00z GGEM was a pretty good run. Chicago, Detroit and Toronto flip over to heavy snow after starting with sprinkles, heaviest amounts over Northern Indiana and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 00z GGEM was a pretty good run. Chicago, Detroit and Toronto flip over to heavy snow after starting with sprinkles, heaviest amounts over Northern Indiana and Toronto. Gonna take a while to convince me on heavy snow w/ a low to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ORD, DTW, and YYZ all satisfied in one storm? Yeah right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Gonna take a while to convince me on heavy snow w/ a low to our SW Tracks over us, not the best track in the world but would work in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hm, I'm not sure about the Euro tonight. It just does not look right at hour 120, and hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Pretty sweet looking on the GFS for DLL right now. And GGEM further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro cuts over Chicago. QC, ORD, FWA all warm. When the raw data comes in, anyone feel like posting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hm, I'm not sure about the Euro tonight. It just does not look right at hour 120, and hour 144. Seems like the typical transferring questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro cuts over Chicago. QC, ORD, FWA all warm. When the raw data comes in, anyone feel like posting it? Looks like Milwaukee stays just cold enough for a dumping of cement, Chicago ultra close, probably a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro cuts over Chicago. QC, ORD, FWA all warm. When the raw data comes in, anyone feel like posting it? Euro looks like a good thump of wet snow for the Quad Cities and Chicago. Fort Wayne would be more questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 would think chicago or just north would be good with those heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro cuts over Chicago. QC, ORD, FWA all warm. When the raw data comes in, anyone feel like posting it? EURO shows 0.0-0.5°C for ORD during the main thump. 1.09" MKE, 1.19" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 EURO shows 0.0-0.5°C for ORD during the main thump. 1.09" MKE, 1.19" for ORD. What about DTW? or DET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 EURO shows 0.0-0.5°C for ORD during the main thump. 1.09" MKE, 1.19" for ORD. Do you have temps? I'm assuming that's a solid SN/PL mix, and not all accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like all snow at ORD on this run or close to it with temps for a time just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 What about DTW? or DET TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.1 3.4 1007 74 18 0.00 551 545 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.5 -3.1 1003 91 99 0.30 543 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -3.8 1003 98 80 0.41 536 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.0 -3.8 1002 99 98 0.11 533 531 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.3 -4.8 1003 95 98 0.04 533 530 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -6.2 1005 86 96 0.05 532 528 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.3 -8.1 1008 85 99 0.05 531 525 THU 06Z 28-FEB -5.0 -7.9 1008 92 89 0.01 531 524 0.97" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Do you have temps? I'm assuming that's a solid SN/PL mix, and not all accumulation. TUE 06Z 26-FEB -1.0 1.5 1008 78 14 0.00 548 541 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -0.6 -4.0 1001 81 100 0.17 542 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.0 -4.8 998 92 96 0.57 535 537 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.4 999 99 94 0.14 533 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.7 -4.0 1002 97 79 0.04 534 533 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.4 -5.1 1003 96 53 0.02 532 530 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.4 -6.1 1005 80 76 0.02 532 528 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.1 -5.7 1006 97 99 0.05 532 527 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.3 -6.7 1006 91 98 0.09 530 526 THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.3 -7.4 1009 94 93 0.06 533 526 THU 18Z 28-FEB 2.1 -7.6 1014 73 72 0.03 539 527 FRI 00Z 01-MAR 0.2 -7.3 1018 87 69 0.01 544 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.1 3.4 1007 74 18 0.00 551 545 TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.5 -3.1 1003 91 99 0.30 543 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -3.8 1003 98 80 0.41 536 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.0 -3.8 1002 99 98 0.11 533 531 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.3 -4.8 1003 95 98 0.04 533 530 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -6.2 1005 86 96 0.05 532 528 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.3 -8.1 1008 85 99 0.05 531 525 THU 06Z 28-FEB -5.0 -7.9 1008 92 89 0.01 531 524 0.97" I'd argue that this is all snow, that +0.2 layer isn't going to make much difference and with the high precip rates it is probably overdone. Probably one of those low ratio deals though. 8:1-10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 TUE 06Z 26-FEB -1.0 1.5 1008 78 14 0.00 548 541 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -0.6 -4.0 1001 81 100 0.17 542 541 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.0 -4.8 998 92 96 0.57 535 537 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.4 999 99 94 0.14 533 534 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.7 -4.0 1002 97 79 0.04 534 533 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.4 -5.1 1003 96 53 0.02 532 530 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.4 -6.1 1005 80 76 0.02 532 528 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.1 -5.7 1006 97 99 0.05 532 527 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.3 -6.7 1006 91 98 0.09 530 526 THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.3 -7.4 1009 94 93 0.06 533 526 THU 18Z 28-FEB 2.1 -7.6 1014 73 72 0.03 539 527 FRI 00Z 01-MAR 0.2 -7.3 1018 87 69 0.01 544 529 Stupid question but are 850's on the left or right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Stupid question but are 850's on the left or right? right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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