harrisale Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Updated early at wunderground. The little pivot on the trowal that was right over us on the 0z run is more along the north shore of Lk Ontario this run. That's where the protracted heavy snow sets up with us getting lighter amounts after the initial burst. It's really only a shift of about 25-50 miles but the impact is noticeable. Certainly not impossible that it could shift back to the west on future runs. Hopefully the warmth the 12z EURO showed is another flash in the pan. The next EURO run will be an important one to watch. I'm thinking we will do decently in Guelph given that temperatures will likely be a bit lower than YYZ proper, I'm just hoping that the main precip dump comes back west a little bit. FWIW SREF plume mean showing 11.04" for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z Euro 6"-9" for ORD. on snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Saved images of snow accum: GGEM: GFS: UKMET (all accum, only through 12z Wed): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I just checked the 12z GFS for FWA on bufkit. What a forecasting nightmare!! 7 AM -RN/SN 10 AM ZR 1 PM +SN 4 PM RN 7 PM IP 10 PM on SN or -SN EDIT: Now I have a better understanding of using the term wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I just checked the 12z GFS for FWA on bufkit. What a forecasting nightmare!! 7 AM -RN/SN 10 AM ZR 1 PM +SN 4 PM RN 7 PM IP 10 PM on SN or -SN EDIT: Now I have a better understanding of using the term wintry mix. It really is. Can't say I'm upset to be off work for this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Weenie euro run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It really is. Can't say I'm upset to be off work for this system... IWX going with winter storm watch. They have it listed under the AFD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 IWX going with winter storm watch. They have it listed under the AFD... We need to watch it alright. Ma nature looks to throw everything but the kitchen sink at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 IWX going with winter storm watch. They have it listed under the AFD... Good catch. I'm sure LOT will pull the trigger by late tonight if trends hold up but the whole process is interesting. There would seem to be a lot more uncertainty on what this storm will do in the IWX cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It really is. Can't say I'm upset to be off work for this system... lol. Come on, what a challenge. Sure more exciting than a straight-up forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Good catch. I'm sure LOT will pull the trigger by late tonight if trends hold up but the whole process is interesting. There would seem to be a lot more uncertainty on what this storm will do in the IWX cwa. This puts LOT in an position where they have to make their call, doesn't it? Too much debating about whether or not certain criteria are going to be met. Unless the next model runs do a complete 180, this is going to be a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 lol. Come on, what a challenge. Sure more exciting than a straight-up forecast. Ha...try editing hourly gfe weather grids when ptype is an issue. I'll take high pressure any day over that nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Go Blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This puts LOT in an position where they have to make their call, doesn't it? Too much debating about whether or not certain criteria are going to be met. Unless the next model runs do a complete 180, this is going to be a high impact event. I don't know...wouldn't be the first time we've seen weird looking warning maps. It would be a good call for continuity/collaboration purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This...otherwise get rid of the watch all together....i understand semantics play a role and there is a need for precision while advising the public what is coming (hence the different criteria) .... with no wind I would go advisory then upgrade to warning if snowfall looks to fall in line... but it appears evident that there will be a marginally extended period of higher winds.... FWIW Not that it matters anyways, cause apparently i use invisible ink.....but i'm not throwin' the "iz"-inator under the bus...my problem lies more with how winter weather headlines are set up in general...it leaves most forecasters in a "hero or zero" situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Not perfect but pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Not that it matters anyways, cause apparently i use invisible ink.....but i'm not throwin' the "iz"-inator under the bus...my problem lies more with how winter weather headlines are set up in general...it leaves most forecasters in a "hero or zero" situation... IMO you are spot on here. All we need is a winter weather statement with details and possible impacts in the text...and keep the blizzard warning for the huge events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Interesting discussion about watches/warnings/advisories. Probably wouldn't hurt to throw up a watch to give the public a head's up that something's brewing. It can then go into a either an advisory or warning, whichever is appropriate, after another model cycle or 2. Hey, you can only play with what you're given. That being said, I guess there's nothing wrong with Gino holding out either. I'd probably give it to the next shift too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 48 hour 12 inch probs....for D2-D3...via the HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Does anyone remember March 2-3 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 IMO you are spot on here. All we need is a winter weather statement with details and possible impacts in the text...and keep the blizzard warning for the huge events. exactly. Does the public really care about the difference between Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory? Call it a Winter Alert to let people know bad weather is on the way. Hell, many tv mets even interchange watch/warning/advisory all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 WOW.. GRR Pulled the trigger and now have a watch for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Interesting discussion about watches/warnings/advisories. Probably wouldn't hurt to throw up a watch to give the public a head's up that something's brewing. It can then go into a either an advisory or warning after another model cycle or 2, whichever is appropriate. Hey, you can only play with what you're given. That being said, I guess there's nothing wrong with Gino holding out either. I'd probably give it to the next shift too, lol. Yeah I want to make it clear I am not ripping on lot here. I completely understand why they would hold off. I just dislike this headline stuff as a nws meteorologist. 50 percent, 70 percent, etc...who gives a...just get the information and threat out there. But I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 EC is usally a day late and a dollar short for our region. For the more populated areas they seem to be more in tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 WOW.. GRR Pulled the trigger and now have a watch for the whole area. Seems kind of early for GRR to be pulling the trigger. Sounds like a fun week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 EC is usally a day late and a dollar short for our region. For the more populated areas they seem to be more in tune. Think they will issue a Special Weather Statement for the 3:30 update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yeah I want to make it clear I am not ripping on lot here. I completely understand why they would hold off. I just dislike this headline stuff as a nws meteorologist. 50 percent, 70 percent, etc...who gives a...just get the information and threat out there. But I digress... Oh, I know you weren't ripping them. It's just thoughts on the system in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Not so fast in the IWX CWA. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SEGMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA1228 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...IN...NONE.MI...NONE.OH...NONE.LM...NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 LOT will issue when it's snowing in Joilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 EC has issued a special weather statement for "significant amounts of precipitation". SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE WITHTHIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICHAREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN OR SNOW, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLYCLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORINGTHE SITUATION. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONALINFORMATION AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THISPOTENTIAL WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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