Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 25-26 Winter Storm


wisconsinwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

MKE:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.7    -1.2    1006      71      66    0.01     546     541   
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.3    1005      95      96    0.50     541     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.1    -5.1    1004      95      96    0.26     539     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.1    1004      94      96    0.05     538     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.0    1007      90      97    0.03     540     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.0    1010      88      95    0.02     542     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.5    1012      87      97    0.01     544     534

LAF:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.0     5.6    1001      84      91    0.23     550     549   
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   2.1     1.9     997      92      72    0.43     538     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   3.7    -0.8     998      93      82    0.04     535     536    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   2.2    -2.7    1000      98      80    0.01     534     534    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.2    -3.7    1002      99      73    0.01     535     534    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.5    -3.0    1005      95      79    0.02     537     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -5.4    1009      97      91    0.03     540     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.3    1010      95      93    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.1    1013      93      86    0.01     545     534

DTW:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   1.7     2.2    1007      71     100    0.03     551     546    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.4    1004      97      96    0.52     543     540    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.8    -0.6    1001      98      95    0.25     539     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.3    1001      99      88    0.09     535     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.9    -2.9    1001      97      97    0.12     534     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -5.3    1003      96      97    0.16     534     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.6    1004      93      93    0.04     536     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -6.6    1008      89      95    0.01     540     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.6    -7.8    1012      74      86    0.01     543     534

YYZ:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   2.2    -3.7    1013      79      91    0.03     553     542   
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.7    -2.9    1009      97     100    0.52     546     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -3.7    1006      95      99    0.22     541     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.5    1003      92      93    0.21     537     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.9    1003      97      97    0.11     535     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.3    1003      93      97    0.11     534     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.7    -7.7    1004      88      98    0.03     534     531    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.7    -8.1    1006      72      98    0.02     536     531    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.4    -8.7    1011      82      97    0.02     538     529    
FRI 06Z 01-MAR  -3.5    -9.5    1013      84      83    0.02     538     527
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm also hearing that temps are colder than the 00z run

 

Updated early at wunderground. The little pivot on the trowal that was right over us on the 0z run is more along the north shore of Lk Ontario this run. That's where the protracted heavy snow sets up with us getting lighter amounts after the initial burst. It's really only a shift of about 25-50 miles but the impact is noticeable. Certainly not impossible that it could shift back to the west on future runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

MKE:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.7    -1.2    1006      71      66    0.01     546     541   
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.3    1005      95      96    0.50     541     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.1    -5.1    1004      95      96    0.26     539     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.1    1004      94      96    0.05     538     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.0    1007      90      97    0.03     540     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.0    1010      88      95    0.02     542     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.5    1012      87      97    0.01     544     534
 
 

Wonder what the total qpf is for MKE on the Euro. The 12z GFS had 1.01" for MKE through Mar 2nd

Wow 0.88"! Much better than I expected :thumbsup:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So after looking at the 12z runs, here's my early guess on precip timing/types for LAF. Precip starts 9z-12z Tuesday possibly as sleet as wetbulb temps aloft are in the 1-2C range. Then things should transition toward less in the way of sleet and more in the way of rain/freezing rain depending on surface temps. There could be a minor glaze but this will need revisiting as the storm gets closer. After 15z or so, I would expect precip to safely be rain (if you consider temps in the mid 30s to be safe) for much of the rest of the day. Precip should transition to snow around or perhaps just after 00z Wednesday and after that we don't look back. Could see minor snow accumulations with the wraparound moisture but not worth getting very excited about right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feb 6, 2008 had about 5" by morning imby with the PART A wave, although I remember there was the special weather statement issued by EC stating that a swath of near 8" fell from Milton to Mississauga. Then there was a 6 hour break, and then PART B arrived by mid afternoon with about 8" additional. 20" seems like a stretch but in Mississauga on the morning of the 7th, 16 or 17" of snow may have fallen in total. 

 

Jan 26-27, 2004 was the big lake enhanced storm. You may have been too young to remember it but south Etobicoke and east Mississauga got hit very hard. Almost 2 feet.

Canuck, are you old enough to remember the December 1992 storm and/or the frigid January of 1994?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MKE:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.7    -1.2    1006      71      66    0.01     546     541   
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.3    1005      95      96    0.50     541     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.1    -5.1    1004      95      96    0.26     539     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.1    1004      94      96    0.05     538     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.0    1007      90      97    0.03     540     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.0    1010      88      95    0.02     542     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.5    1012      87      97    0.01     544     534

LAF:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.0     5.6    1001      84      91    0.23     550     549   
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   2.1     1.9     997      92      72    0.43     538     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   3.7    -0.8     998      93      82    0.04     535     536    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   2.2    -2.7    1000      98      80    0.01     534     534    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.2    -3.7    1002      99      73    0.01     535     534    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.5    -3.0    1005      95      79    0.02     537     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -5.4    1009      97      91    0.03     540     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.3    1010      95      93    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.1    1013      93      86    0.01     545     534

DTW:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   1.7     2.2    1007      71     100    0.03     551     546    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.4    1004      97      96    0.52     543     540    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.8    -0.6    1001      98      95    0.25     539     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.3    1001      99      88    0.09     535     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.9    -2.9    1001      97      97    0.12     534     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -5.3    1003      96      97    0.16     534     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.6    1004      93      93    0.04     536     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -6.6    1008      89      95    0.01     540     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.6    -7.8    1012      74      86    0.01     543     534

YYZ:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   2.2    -3.7    1013      79      91    0.03     553     542   
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.7    -2.9    1009      97     100    0.52     546     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -3.7    1006      95      99    0.22     541     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.5    1003      92      93    0.21     537     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.9    1003      97      97    0.11     535     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.3    1003      93      97    0.11     534     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.7    -7.7    1004      88      98    0.03     534     531    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.7    -8.1    1006      72      98    0.02     536     531    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.4    -8.7    1011      82      97    0.02     538     529    
FRI 06Z 01-MAR  -3.5    -9.5    1013      84      83    0.02     538     527

 

0.7c is getting a bit toasty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sounds like pushing .75"   GFS is probably a little bullish on the snow after the main event wed.

0.88" on the Euro!!

 

MKE:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.2 1006 71 66 0.01 546 541

WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.50 541 537

WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -5.1 1004 95 96 0.26 539 536

WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.1 1004 94 96 0.05 538 535

WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.0 1007 90 97 0.03 540 535

THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1010 88 95 0.02 542 534

THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1012 87 97 0.01 544 534

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canuck, are you old enough to remember the December 1992 storm and/or the frigid January of 1994?

 

I was alive, but too young to remember either of those events. I get a few vague recollections from as early as the fall of '97 but January 1999 and onwards is when my memory of wx events in Toronto borders on eidetic. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LAF:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.0     5.6    1001      84      91    0.23     550     549   
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   2.1     1.9     997      92      72    0.43     538     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   3.7    -0.8     998      93      82    0.04     535     536    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   2.2    -2.7    1000      98      80    0.01     534     534    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.2    -3.7    1002      99      73    0.01     535     534    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.5    -3.0    1005      95      79    0.02     537     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -5.4    1009      97      91    0.03     540     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.3    1010      95      93    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.1    1013      93      86    0.01     545     534

 

Wow, what a blowtorch. At least the rain will be warmer pushing 40º...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So after looking at the 12z runs, here's my early guess on precip timing/types for LAF. Precip starts 9z-12z Tuesday possibly as sleet as wetbulb temps aloft are in the 1-2C range. Then things should transition toward less in the way of sleet and more in the way of rain/freezing rain depending on surface temps. There could be a minor glaze but this will need revisiting as the storm gets closer. After 15z or so, I would expect precip to safely be rain (if you consider temps in the mid 30s to be safe) for much of the rest of the day. Precip should transition to snow around or perhaps just after 00z Wednesday and after that we don't look back. Could see minor snow accumulations with the wraparound moisture but not worth getting very excited about right now.

 

Sleet. Yeah. Puke. 

 

At least it won't last long. Solid rainer upcoming.

 

Backside snows will amount to diddly with surface temps well above freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updated early at wunderground. The little pivot on the trowal that was right over us on the 0z run is more along the north shore of Lk Ontario this run. That's where the protracted heavy snow sets up with us getting lighter amounts after the initial burst. It's really only a shift of about 25-50 miles but the impact is noticeable. Certainly not impossible that it could shift back to the west on future runs.

At least we know there should be a TROWAL feature. Where it sets up is up in the air.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...