Gilbertfly Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 diagnostics.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1127 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013VALID FEB 24/1200 UTC THRU FEB 28/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING. ...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINSTODAY......CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET BLENDCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NAM INITIALIZED SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD IN THE VICINITY OFTHIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TOO HIGH BY 4 TO 8HPA...INDICATING POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM BY THE NAM. THE NAM FORECAST TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW DOESNOT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CONSENSUS...HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS TOCONTINUE TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSOAPPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSSTHE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. THEGFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REASONABLYWELL AND THE GFS SOLUTION CLUSTERS CLOSELY WITH THE 00ZECMWF/UKMET. THE GFS APPEARS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE MODELCONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM 12Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. SPREADINCREASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWFARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. BYWEDNESDAY THE GFS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEAN...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ANUPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT AMPLIFIES MORE RELATIVE TO NON-NCEP GUIDANCEAND REMAINS FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE SHIFT OF THE GFS AWAY FROM ITSOWN PREVIOUS MEAN...WILL RECOMMEND THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AT THISTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z UK 60 hour panel: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=060'>http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 9z SREF mean snowfall for MCI: 15.7" Weeniest members have 20.2", 22.3", 24.1", and 27.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 9z SREF mean snowfall for MCI: 15.7" Weeniest members have 20.2", 22.3", 24.1", and 27.4". once in a multi-lifetime mega stretch for MCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 once in a multi-lifetime mega stretch for MCI. Parts of Kansas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Seems to be looking good for Toronto. If this storm delivers, it will be among the snowiest Februarys of my life in Toronto. Second fiddle imby. If it drops 12", it'll still be shy by 3 or 4" what I totaled in Feb 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Starting to wonder if this system will resemble Feb 6/08 around here. That storm had marginal temps but had intense precip rates which this system is expecting to have. Time will tell. Part A of that storm featured marginal temps and cement like snow. The bigger Part B was cold powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z GGEM way north. Takes the low to the middle of the southern end of the Lake. And then sits and spins, until the secondary tries to takes over...but has issues doing so. Chicago stays frozen though. Really though, it's a pretty crappy model. EDIT: it's actually colder, a bit further south than its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Part A of that storm featured marginal temps and cement like snow. The bigger Part B was cold powder. Part A did have the thundersnow if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Part A did have the thundersnow if I recall correctly. I slept through a lot of it but it wouldn't surprise me. Part B DEFINITELY had thundersnow (around 6pm on the 6th) with CG lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I slept through a lot of it but it wouldn't surprise me. Part B DEFINITELY had thundersnow (around 6pm on the 6th) with CG lightning. Slept through TSSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I slept through a lot of it but it wouldn't surprise me. Part B DEFINITELY had thundersnow (around 6pm on the 6th) with CG lightning. I could swear waking up that morning to 20'' of snow and school being shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I could swear waking up that morning to 20'' of snow and school being shut down. That was January 26-27, 2004 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Slept through TSSN? I had a class the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z GGEM way north. Takes the low to the middle of the southern end of the Lake. And then sits and spins, until the secondary tries to takes over...but has issues doing so. Chicago stays frozen though. Really though, it's a pretty crappy model. EDIT: it's actually colder, a bit further south than its 0z run. I really hoped that it would get better after its upgrade but other than reducing the bombs in the mid-long range I haven't been impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I had a class the following day. Should have been like summertime...no class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 GEM and GFS don't have much of a dry slot. Basically keeps the snow going all day Wednesday in Toronto. Would be more comfortable believing that if the ul tracked a bit further to the south and the coastal storm became more prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 That was January 26-27, 2004 I think. I'm pretty sure it was Feb 6/08 but it could be my mind playing tricks. I didn't remember Jan 26-27/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'm pretty sure it was Feb 6/08 but it could be my mind playing tricks. I didn't remember Jan 26-27/04 Feb 6, 2008 had about 5" by morning imby with the PART A wave, although I remember there was the special weather statement issued by EC stating that a swath of near 8" fell from Milton to Mississauga. Then there was a 6 hour break, and then PART B arrived by mid afternoon with about 8" additional. 20" seems like a stretch but in Mississauga on the morning of the 7th, 16 or 17" of snow may have fallen in total. Jan 26-27, 2004 was the big lake enhanced storm. You may have been too young to remember it but south Etobicoke and east Mississauga got hit very hard. Almost 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Just going through some of model sounding data now and I have no idea what the ptype is going to be in my backyard when bulk of precip and deep ascent plume lifts through. Along/north of I-80 looking really good for a decent snow event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Feb 6, 2008 had about 5" by morning imby with the PART A wave, although I remember there was the special weather statement issued by EC stating that a swath of near 8" fell from Milton to Mississauga. Then there was a 6 hour break, and then PART B arrived by mid afternoon with about 8" additional. 20" seems like a stretch but in Mississauga on the morning of the 7th, 16 or 17" of snow may have fallen in total. I remember watching BT that morning saying that there was about that much snow that fallen. Seems like we were under a defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I should feel ashamed for looking at it...and really, it's up for debate if I should be 5-posted for posting it... ...but, it's my last hope. buckeye would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 4km NAM showing a few 30" lollies over northwest OK lol. Bullish. EDIT: Yellow is 24", pink is 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Early LOT snowfall map: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=winter'>http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 4km NAM showing a few 30" lollies over northwest OK lol. Bullish. EDIT: Yellow is 24", pink is 30". Damn... I love the little purple shade over Milwaukee.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The suburbs of Detroit are awesome. I'm moving to Novi within the year and love it around there This year has been flukey, but in a typical year Novi will receive more snow than DTW....and you should definitely notice an increase over NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well I am going to question that data you posted as bufkit's data doesn't agree with it at all. I use that link Powerball posted myself because I dont understand bufkit...but it seems like a more detailed MOS output lol http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KDTW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably a resolution matter, or lack there of, but 12z GEFS individual 72 hour total QPF through 18z Thursday seem wetter overall/more widespread in IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Hr 48 euro just south of St. Louis just crushing Kansas City and northern Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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