February 25-26 Winter Storm

[Chicago WX]

Total QPF through 18z Thursday...0z GFS versus 12z GFS.

 

0z GFS

 

12z GFS

[Thundersnow12]

Both NAM/GFS agree on about 4-7" here counting wraparound snows.

 

NAM leaves the first band around longer though.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Seems to be looking good for Toronto. If this storm delivers, it will be among the snowiest Februarys of my life in Toronto.

[A-L-E-K]

Both NAM/GFS agree on about 4-7" here counting wraparound snows.

 

NAM leaves the first band around longer though.

 

quick extraction of the 12z NAM has nearly 3" of wrap around snow

[ILSNOW]

quick extraction of the 12z NAM has nearly 3" of wrap around snow

 

 

sounds like you are jumping on board!!!

[toronto blizzard]

Starting to wonder if this system will resemble Feb 6/08 around here. That storm had marginal temps but had intense precip rates which this system is expecting to have. Time will tell.

[michsnowfreak]

Why would anyone move from such a beautiful countryside to Detroit?

He lives in a nice suburb. Then again wouldnt be a day at amwx if u didnt troll MI ;-)

[RCNYILWX]

Still too early, expect headlines by tonight or tomorrow morning.

I think there will be one out this afternoon. And that I'll be working til 2-3am to help out the midnight shift tonight lol.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Starting to wonder if this system will resemble Feb 6/08 around here. That storm had marginal temps but had intense precip rates which this system is expecting to have. Time will tell.

December 1992 saw a storm drop 16" on Toronto with marginal temperatures. It was the biggest storm of my childhood.

 

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4841&dlyRange=1986-05-01|2013-02-23&Year=1992&Month=12&Day=01

 

The storm was on December 10-11, 1992 and dropped 34cm (13.5") on Pearson and a lot more on Markham Buttonville. Temperature was right on the freezing mark for much of the storm. I remember they were initially calling for only 6-8".

[Powerball]

Verbatim, Detroit has mixing issues on the latest NAM and GFS (snow to rain to snow).

 

Things get pretty torchy from 925mb to the surface.

 

Otherwise, snow totals on those runs would probably be pushing 1'.

[nwohweather]

Why would anyone move from such a beautiful countryside to Detroit?

The suburbs of Detroit are awesome. I'm moving to Novi within the year and love it around there

[Stebo]

Verbatim, Detroit has mixing issues on the latest NAM and GFS (snow to rain to snow).

 

Things get pretty torchy from 925mb to the surface.

 

Otherwise, snow totals on those runs would probably be pushing 1'.

NAM was all snow, and the GFS is underdoing dynamic cooling which is a mesoscale feature it just can not grasp fully.

[michsnowfreak]

Verbatim, Detroit has mixing issues on the latest NAM and GFS (snow to rain to snow).

Things get pretty torchy from 925mb to the surface.

Otherwise, snow totals on those runs would probably be pushing 1'.

Yeah mixing issues but also higher qpf. Hopefully a good tradeoff

[Chicago WX]

quick extraction of the 12z NAM has nearly 3" of wrap around snow

 

Good times. Second to last column is 10:1 snow totals, in case some were wondering.

 

 

51 02/26 15Z   30     28      55      18    0.01  0.00    541    549   -3.7 -16.9 1009 100 -SN   009OVC315    0.1    2.354 02/26 18Z   30     29      52      20    0.23  0.00    541    545   -1.1 -19.3 1005 100 SN    007OVC284    2.3    0.357 02/26 21Z   31     29      56      18    0.19  0.00    539    541   -3.0 -21.2 1002 100 -SN   006OVC193    1.9    0.760 02/27 00Z   31     30      49      15    0.11  0.00    538    539   -4.7 -22.1 1001 100 -SN   006OVC118    1.1    0.863 02/27 03Z   31     29      33      14    0.08  0.00    537    538   -5.5 -22.0 1000 100 -SN   006OVC092    0.8    1.566 02/27 06Z   31     29      16      11    0.03  0.00    537    536   -6.1 -22.2  999 100 -SN   005OVC291    0.3    2.269 02/27 09Z   31     29     347       9    0.02  0.00    535    534   -7.0 -21.9  998 100 -SN   005OVC278    0.2    2.372 02/27 12Z   31     30     329      10    0.03  0.00    534    533   -7.6 -22.3  998 100 -SN   005OVC277    0.3    2.175 02/27 15Z   30     28     320      12    0.03  0.00    532    532   -7.7 -21.9  999 100 -SN   005OVC277    0.3    1.578 02/27 18Z   31     29     309      12    0.06  0.00    531    531   -8.3 -22.8  999 100 -SN   005OVC276    0.6    1.081 02/27 21Z   31     30     308      13    0.06  0.00    531    532   -8.3 -23.9 1001 100 -SN   006OVC204    0.6    1.184 02/28 00Z   32     31     307      13    0.04  0.00    530    534   -8.0 -23.7 1003 100 -SN   006OVC199    0.4    2.8

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Fortunately I live away from the lakeshore, so this should hopefully mean more accumulation for me.

[BowMeHunter]

Why?

 

It's better for MKE. 

 

I don't know why still and can't find any words to express other than nothing that I've just had a meh feeling about the model all along with this one whether it has shown good or meh.

 

I think the NAM was pretty weenie this last run but for some silly reason I've had a good feeling its performance is not its usual sub par so far for this storm..  I think the gfs can and will come in a little beefier with qpf on the front end and expect the euro to improve on last nights run some.   I already feel like a schmuck with this post and watch the euro really do mo in lol.

[Powerball]

NAM was all snow, and the GFS is grossly underdoing dynamic cooling which is a mesoscale feature it just can not grasp fully.

 

Take a closer look...

 

 

 54 02/26 18Z   30     28      83      16    0.00  0.00    543    551   -3.0 -16.5 1011 100 -SN   010OVC342    0.0    6.3

  57 02/26 21Z   31     30      75      17    0.14  0.00    543    548   -0.4 -16.9 1006 100 -SN   007OVC189    1.4    0.8

  60 02/27 00Z   31     31      80      17    0.12  0.00    541    544   -1.0 -20.1 1003 100 SN    006OVC309    1.1    0.9

  63 02/27 03Z   32     31      90      15    0.16  0.00    539    539   -1.9 -21.8 1000 100 SN    006OVC216    1.6    0.5

  66 02/27 06Z   32     32     112      10    0.17  0.00    536    534   -2.1 -23.7  997 100 -RA   006OVC140    0.9    1.1

  69 02/27 09Z   34     34     136      10    0.08  0.00    534    531   -1.7 -26.3  995 100 -RA   005OVC145    0.0    0.1

  72 02/27 12Z   33     33     173      10    0.06  0.00    535    531   -3.9 -24.5  994 100 -SN   005OVC215    0.7    0.2

  75 02/27 15Z   31     31     194      12    0.09  0.00    533    530   -5.8 -23.6  995 100 -SN   005OVC193    0.9    1.2

  78 02/27 18Z   31     30     200      11    0.08  0.00    533    529   -7.1 -23.3  995 100 -SN   005OVC237    0.8    0.7

  81 02/27 21Z   31     30     200      10    0.09  0.00    531    528   -7.4 -23.9  995 100 -SN   005OVC250    0.9    0.8

  84 02/28 00Z   31     31     213      10    0.06  0.00    530    527   -7.1 -24.7  995 100 -SN   005OVC249    0.6    1.1

 

That said, the 06z run was all snow.

 

Meanwhile, GEM remains pitiful.

[Stebo]

Take a closer look...

 

 

 54 02/26 18Z   30     28      83      16    0.00  0.00    543    551   -3.0 -16.5 1011 100 -SN   010OVC342    0.0    6.3

  57 02/26 21Z   31     30      75      17    0.14  0.00    543    548   -0.4 -16.9 1006 100 -SN   007OVC189    1.4    0.8

  60 02/27 00Z   31     31      80      17    0.12  0.00    541    544   -1.0 -20.1 1003 100 SN    006OVC309    1.1    0.9

  63 02/27 03Z   32     31      90      15    0.16  0.00    539    539   -1.9 -21.8 1000 100 SN    006OVC216    1.6    0.5

  66 02/27 06Z   32     32     112      10    0.17  0.00    536    534   -2.1 -23.7  997 100 -RA   006OVC140    0.9    1.1

  69 02/27 09Z   34     34     136      10    0.08  0.00    534    531   -1.7 -26.3  995 100 -RA   005OVC145    0.0    0.1

  72 02/27 12Z   33     33     173      10    0.06  0.00    535    531   -3.9 -24.5  994 100 -SN   005OVC215    0.7    0.2

  75 02/27 15Z   31     31     194      12    0.09  0.00    533    530   -5.8 -23.6  995 100 -SN   005OVC193    0.9    1.2

  78 02/27 18Z   31     30     200      11    0.08  0.00    533    529   -7.1 -23.3  995 100 -SN   005OVC237    0.8    0.7

  81 02/27 21Z   31     30     200      10    0.09  0.00    531    528   -7.4 -23.9  995 100 -SN   005OVC250    0.9    0.8

  84 02/28 00Z   31     31     213      10    0.06  0.00    530    527   -7.1 -24.7  995 100 -SN   005OVC249    0.6    1.1

 

That said, the 06z run was all snow.

 

Meanwhile, GEM remains pitiful.

 

Is this for DET or DTW? Because bufkit for DTW is all snow, I trust its data.

[Chicago WX]

Love the 12z NAM text data for FWA, complete with TSSN. That would be awesome.

 

 

51 02/26 15Z   30     29      67      21    0.22  0.00    546    552    1.8 -15.1 1006 100 FZRN  007OVC221    0.0    1.654 02/26 18Z   32     31      80      18    0.28  0.00    544    548   -0.5 -16.6 1004 100 SN    006OVC248    1.4    0.857 02/26 21Z   33     32      81      16    0.04  0.00    542    542    0.7 -20.8  999 100 -RA   008OVC099    0.0    9.360 02/27 00Z   32     32      80      12    0.14  0.02    541    539   -0.5 -22.1  998 100 TSSN  008OVC261    1.5    0.363 02/27 03Z   32     31      80       6    0.25  0.00    538    535   -1.1 -22.9  997 100 -SN   010OVC246    1.3    0.966 02/27 06Z   32     32     172       3    0.05  0.00    537    534   -1.5 -23.4  995 100 -FZRN 009OVC245    0.0    2.269 02/27 09Z   32     31     233      14    0.07  0.00    537    534   -4.1 -22.5  995 100 -SN   009OVC251    0.7    1.072 02/27 12Z   30     29     236      13    0.08  0.00    536    534   -5.5 -23.0  996 100 -SN   010OVC251    0.8    2.075 02/27 15Z   31     29     232      14    0.03  0.00    533    532   -7.2 -23.3  997 100 -SN   007OVC212    0.3    1.778 02/27 18Z   32     30     239      15    0.03  0.00    532    530   -7.8 -23.6  997 100 -SN   007OVC207    0.3    1.981 02/27 21Z   32     30     254      17    0.03  0.00    531    530   -7.8 -22.9  998 100 -SN   008OVC274    0.3    1.884 02/28 00Z   30     29     261      18    0.05  0.00    530    530   -7.8 -24.3 1000 100 -SN   008OVC238    0.5    1.3

[Thundersnow12]

I think there will be one out this afternoon. And that I'll be working til 2-3am to help out the midnight shift tonight lol.

Thanks for the heads up sir. I know Gino has duties this afternoon.

[Chicago WX]

I don't know why still and can't find any words to express other than nothing that I've just had a meh feeling about the model all along with this one whether it has shown good or meh.

 

I think the NAM was pretty weenie this last run but for some silly reason I've had a good feeling its performance is not its usual sub par so far for this storm..  I think the gfs can and will come in a little beefier with qpf on the front end and expect the euro to improve on last nights run some.   I already feel like a schmuck with this post and watch the euro really do mo in lol.

 

Alright alright, good stuff. Yeah, I like MKE a lot right now. Turning into a real nice second half of winter up there.

[RCNYILWX]

Thanks for the heads up sir. I know Gino has duties this afternoon.

Much obliged. PM on the way.

[A-L-E-K]

Alright alright, good stuff. Yeah, I like MKE a lot right now. Turning into a real nice second half of winter up there.

 

 

[Powerball]

Is this for DET or DTW? Because bufkit for DTW is all snow, I trust its data.

 

DTW (DET is probably a tad warmer yet).

 

That said, I highly doubt it's all snow with an above freezing layer of roughly 3,000 feet (granted it's only 1*C-2*C above freezing).

 

Ultimately, the point is those runs aren't as good as they seem at face value.

[Stebo]

DTW (DET is probably a tad warmer yet).

 

That said, I highly doubt it's all snow with an above freezing layer of roughly 3,000 feet (granted it's only 1*C-2*C above freezing).

 

Ultimately, the point is those runs aren't as good as they seem at face value.

Well I am going to question that data you posted as bufkit's data doesn't agree with it at all.

[Chicago WX]

All the fun stuff posted above, and then you have winter hell. Only one guess allowed for this text extraction...

 

 

51 02/26 15Z   32     31      76      19    0.27  0.00    545    548    1.7 -19.1 1003 100 -RA   008OVC179    0.0    4.354 02/26 18Z   33     32      83      17    0.04  0.00    543    543    2.1 -20.9  999 100 -RA   009OVC135    0.0   10.857 02/26 21Z   33     33      78      12    0.04  0.00    541    539    1.5 -22.4  996 100 RA    006OVC174    0.0    3.6

[Stebo]

All the fun stuff posted above, and then you have winter hell. Only one guess allowed for this text extraction...

 

 

51 02/26 15Z   32     31      76      19    0.27  0.00    545    548    1.7 -19.1 1003 100 -RA   008OVC179    0.0    4.354 02/26 18Z   33     32      83      17    0.04  0.00    543    543    2.1 -20.9  999 100 -RA   009OVC135    0.0   10.857 02/26 21Z   33     33      78      12    0.04  0.00    541    539    1.5 -22.4  996 100 RA    006OVC174    0.0    3.6

 

I will mail you a box of snow as a gift for your screwjob

[dmc76]

DTW (DET area) Snowfall begins around 4pm.... Which means bulk of the Snowfall is at night huge positive with marginal temps. 6"+ is likely 

[Chicago WX]

I will mail you a box of snow as a gift for your screwjob

 

Thanks for the offer. But I still have plowed parking lot piles here to satisfy my fix. 

[RJSnowLover]

AFTER TAKING A PRELIMINARY PERUSAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE HAVENT SEEN ANY
BIG SURPRISES REGARDING THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF AND FURTHER ACCESS
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION...BUT MAY NEED
TO AT LEAST CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
IZZI