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February 25-26 Winter Storm


wisconsinwx

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Yeah, seriously. If we received 10" from this storm, I think this would officially make this winter a B+ for me, maybe even an A-. February 2013 would be right up there with the snowiest months I've witnessed (who would have thought?) and might even make me satisfied with a lame March. It looks really good for the GTA Hamilton is riding the line with this one. 

 

I was just looking at the 6z NAM 2m temps. Hamilton looks ok, but like here, the further away from Lk Ontario you are, the better. If you're up in the mountain, you're in a prime spot.

 

And two big time snowstorms in one season automatically puts this winter in a B or B+ territory for me. Tough to give it an A considering how lackluster December and January were.

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This point/click forecast seems a little aggressive from IWX. (For Marion) Tuesday: Snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 35. East wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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IWX's SPS encapsulates their thinking. Looking good, but we'll see.

 

A POTENT WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ISPROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATETUESDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAYMORNING FOLLOWED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTEDWITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT ICING ISPOSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24CORRIDOR.
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Easily the most bullish the rather miserly wunderground euro snow maps have been for a Chicago band.  I know TSSN hates these maps but they have been super stingy all year...this would be a very heavy band coring the metro.

 

EDIT: I'll be raising my call later this morning...it's undeniable.

post-163-0-89209400-1361710141_thumb.png

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Yeah, seriously. If we received 10" from this storm, I think this would officially make this winter a B+ for me, maybe even an A-. February 2013 would be right up there with the snowiest months I've witnessed (who would have thought?) and might even make me satisfied with a lame March. It looks really good for the GTA Hamilton is riding the line with this one. 

Wow...really interesting runs overnight. Last storm there was total consensus. This one, not quite. The Canadian models are crazy north compared to the Euro, NAM etc....  I personally weigh the EURO more than any of them.

Could you imagine two storms over a foot in one month?? This will be interesting to track. And  I agree- location could be a huge factor in this storm. Folks in Waterdown/Flamborough area are sitting in the prime spot according to most models. I'm only 5 minutes from Waterdown, but right down on the harbour shore. That 400 foot difference in elevation might be a big factor here.

And yes, I agree - if this storm were to verify, I'd give this winter an A-  or B+.  I don't remember the last winter with 3 major storms.

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Yep, I will be cutting short my business trip to Indianapolis by a day so I can drive back to Elkhart late Monday instead of Tuesday and get caught up in all this mess.  I do think a significant ice storm is possible along the U.S. 24 corridor and points south in IN with snow to the north as IWX is currently thinking.

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KBUF hinting at potential TROWAL in their AFD for this system

Yeah there are hints of it extending back into this area as well. Also starting to note some elevated instability in the soundings from this morning's runs. Around 40-60 J/kg of elevated CAPE, this would suggest the potential is there for some embedded thunder with the snow.
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I always say...and I mean it 100%...that my favorite kind of snow is the fluffy/powdery kind. However, this winter we have accumulated 39" of snow and there hasnt been a single, caking cement snowfall (the closest would be the 3.1" the other day with its high water content, but it was a sand-like powder...and then Feb 8th the 2.7" following freezing rain). So Im actually kind of looking forward to it. The trees can be gorgeous in these type of snows. Im a little worried about the GoodFoorSh*t and its warmer thermal profiles, but if you are to get a wet snow, theres no other way than threading the needle. Not to mention Im worried DTX is going bullish, as they have lowballed nearly every snowfall this winter :lol:

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I always say...and I mean it 100%...that my favorite kind of snow is the fluffy/powdery kind. However, this winter we have accumulated 39" of snow and there hasnt been a single, caking cement snowfall (the closest would be the 3.1" the other day with its high water content, but it was a sand-like powder...and then Feb 8th the 2.7" following freezing rain). So Im actually kind of looking forward to it. The trees can be gorgeous in these type of snows. Im a little worried about the GoodFoorSh*t and its warmer thermal profiles, but if you are to get a wet snow, theres no other way than threading the needle. Not to mention Im worried DTX is going bullish, as they have lowballed nearly every snowfall this winter :lol:

When are you heading to Paradise?

 

Looks like DTW will avg above normal snowfall this year....NICE!

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When are you heading to Paradise?

 

Looks like DTW will avg above normal snowfall this year....NICE!

DTW needs 5.3" more to hit their seasonal average and we have this potential storm ahead, it appears the cold is going nowhere into March, and not to mention the usual sneaky April snowfall we get. I would have to cut my hand off if I typed with any seriousness the played out wx-forum phrase "its a lock", but it does look extremely likely :)

 

Actually...the Paradise trip was supposed to be this week but my mom (whos going with me) has to work this weekend and is off next (Im off most weekends so Im flexible). IF this storm materializes here it will work out better, because I can guarentee you there will be just as much snow up there March 8-10 as there will be this week. And thats a LOT :lol:

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
409 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
241815-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER

409 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 /509 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013/

WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER STORM IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
GENERAL...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TO THE
SOUTH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER TO AN INCH OR
LESS...HOWEVER THIS AREA HAS POTENTIAL TO SEE AN ICY MIX INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 

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NAM with longer duration too. Snow moves in after 15z and still snowing at 9z the next morning.

 

 

Duration is the major positive this storm has going that the others this season haven't...the window of mod/heavy snow is still pretty narrow but a period of prolonged light snow (possible lake enhancement?) is looking good.  It's also worth noting that even in a weakening state, the last system managed thundersnow all the way up to IKK.

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