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February 25-26 Winter Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chargers09

Chargers09

Posted
Posted

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW LAT= 42.23 LON= -83.33 ELE= 663

00Z FEB24

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK 

WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.3 1006 97 98 0.38 546 541 

WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -1.7 1003 97 98 0.30 541 539 

WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.3 1001 97 97 0.11 537 537 

WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.1 -4.9 1002 90 89 0.07 538 536 

THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.7 -6.3 1004 91 96 0.05 538 535 

THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.1 -5.9 1005 90 94 0.02 539 535 

THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -6.1 1009 87 93 0.01 541 534 

 

Solid. 

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Local Geos jackpot again, I'm calling it.  Early congrats.  Of course it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.  A snow weenie who shows a positive attitude even when nickel and dimes rear their ugly head.

 

I'd rather not be in the jackpot zone until Monday 12z, but will see what happens! :)

 

Nickel and dimes add up!

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Well, my exact call was 2.4", I measured 3.5", so while it wasn't the best, it wasn't that far off for mby.  The airport could have embellished their total a bit, or else LE added some moisture there.

I would trust the airport to get a measurement correct out of anyone...

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Hopefully Gino can post more when gets some time but him, myself, and another knowledgable forecaster were talking about this one on fb and Gino def thinks there is potential for a really high impact event here. Obviously details will sort themselves out but lots of moisture, convective potential, impressive UVV's, could dig more to Gulf and come north. Both of them said it reminded them of a March snowstorm with those heavy rates.

 

I believe he will have the afternoon AFD.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

My boy Skoronski from GB office with the obvious..  Take note, Nicky.  No need to get too high or low on this one yet.

 

Monday night it is.

 

 

COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...MODELS HAVE TAKEN A JOG BACK NWD WITH THE  SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. STILL SKEPTICAL WE/VE GOTTEN THE  FINAL ANSWER WITH THAT SYSTEM AS THE UPSTREAM KICKER SHRTWV IN  THE NRN STREAM CONTINUES TO LOOK DIFFERENT FM RUN TO RUN. AND  UNTIL THAT GETS SORTED OUT I DOUBT WE/LL SEE THE HANDLING OF THE  SRN STREAM SYSTEM REALLY SETTLE DOWN TO THE POINT WHERE WE CAN BE  REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF ITS TRACK. THE ONE ASPECT OF THE SRN  STREAM SYSTEM THAT A DPROG/DT DISPLAY SHOWS CLEARLY IS A TENDENCY  TO SLOW IT DOWN...BUT NO REAL SURPRISE THERE FOR A NEARLY CLOSED  UPPER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM.  
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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

Posted
Posted

sup.

 

VPZ:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.1    -1.4    1004      87      97    0.16     546     543    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.7    1002      92     100    0.47     540     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.6    1002      97      73    0.07     539     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -3.2    1003      96      91    0.01     540     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.0    -4.0    1006      92      95    0.01     541     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.2    1009      93      96    0.02     543     536    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -4.7    1011      88      88    0.03     545     536

Thanks!

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Yeah I would be worried as well for your area, all the models did shift South with the upper low on the 00z run.

 

Yup..  Won't take much to really take us out of it but then again it wouldn't take much to get back in to a little more snow either.   Not expecting much anyways and have never tried to make this more than what it is so I'll be fine with 2" of cement and thrilled with 4"   I lost power twice in the storm before last and this snow looks to be even wetter so anything over 4-5"  with a little wind could start causing problems  and I don't want that.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Loving meteorology is a dangerous condition, I have had it my entire life.

 

I'm so glad I didn't know weather boards existed before I did.   TWC was dangerous enough growing up in the 80's..  I drove my parents insane with that channel.  Just in winter lol..  I only care about snow for the most part to be honest.  I still can't get severe wx to do much for me but I've tried.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I'm so glad I didn't know weather boards existed before I did.   TWC was dangerous enough growing up in the 80's..  I drove my parents insane with that channel.  Just in winter lol..  I only care about snow for the most part to be honest.  I still can't get severe wx to do much for me but I've tried.

 

Yeah my love of meteorology goes full circle, really only boring weather is my only hate. Drought like last summer was quite irksome. 

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

I'm so glad I didn't know weather boards existed before I did.   TWC was dangerous enough growing up in the 80's..  I drove my parents insane with that channel.  Just in winter lol..  I only care about snow for the most part to be honest.  I still can't get severe wx to do much for me but I've tried.

 

Ha! You and me both! :lmao: Ofcourse i have always had a interest in the tropics as well and did back then living on the coast so yeah.. lol

 

I could not imagine if i had been here vs what i did back in my late teens, 20s. :yikes:

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Yeah drought is no fun for so many things..   I do get into tracking some good rain events though and garden variety t-storms with some good booms are cool to me.  Severe does nothing for me though except for to be a worry wart.

 

Severe wx can take you into places you rarely get to experience. I will not lie but when that massive storm hit my house ( did a ton of damage in this area )  back in late May 2011 i honestly thought that was it for me. It was a blend of extreme excitement and fear combined. Not sure i would care to repeat that though? I love a good hail event with heavy duty extreme rains.

 

Oh and fook droughts.

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Well well well, DTX's point forecast has me down for 6-10" of snow. Fairly bold statement from them I think.
 

 

  • Tuesday Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 4pm. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
  • Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

GFS still oddly warm at the surface with this, I don't think it is taking into effect the prospect of dynamic cooling with enhanced precip rates, and is instead keeping Detroit a 32.5 with rain scenario. In this case I think it is going to be incorrect there. DTX also seems to think so.

 

 

THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS INITIAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE FOR EFFICIENT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A 5000 FOOT LAYER OF SLIGHTLY MILD AIR UP TO +2C. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A COMBINATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLING FROM SNOW FALLING FROM WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER AND MELTING WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY MILD LAYER CLOSER TO H85. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE THIS PROCESS. IN ADDITION...TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY...WITH THE HEAVIEST BURST OF PRECIPITATION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL MINIMIZE WARMING FROM SOLAR INSOLATION...AT LEAST AFTER 4-5PM..AND POSE NO HINDRANCE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION THEREAFTER. FOR NORTHERN AREAS...SOMEWHERE NORTH OF M 59 TO I 69...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A QUESTION AS MOST/ALL WILL FALL AS SNOW GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER INITIAL CONDITIONS AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...OTHER THAN A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. WITH MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ALSO UPPED POPS TO 80-90% THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...GIVE OR TAKE...FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. WHILE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY...IT WOULD APPEARS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA FROM SAY THE M 59 CORRIDOR INTO THE THUMB STANDS OUT SLIGHTLY AS THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure I read numerous times in SNE threads that the GFS  is not the best at evaporative cooling and CAD.  I haven't liked/felt the GFS runs in this storm for some reason and haven't been taking them serious.  hopefully by tomorrow evening things are more clear but its looking dam good for chicago's biggest snowfall this winter and especially good off to the east.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure I read numerous times in SNE threads that the GFS  is not the best at evaporative cooling and CAD.  I haven't liked/felt the GFS runs in this storm for some reason and haven't been taking them serious.  hopefully by tomorrow evening things are more clear but its looking dam good for chicago's biggest snowfall this winter and especially good off to the east.

Well the other factor that shouldn't be ignored is that the other models have been trending South with the low and slower. The GFS is still faster and more progressive than the other models.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

GFS still oddly warm at the surface with this, I don't think it is taking into effect the prospect of dynamic cooling with enhanced precip rates, and is instead keeping Detroit a 32.5 with rain scenario. In this case I think it is going to be incorrect there. DTX also seems to think so.

 

Agreed. Should be mostly snow in Detroit. Perhaps from near/just south Josh on down to the Ohio border could have some freezing rain issues ( before transitioning to snow )  which HPC shows but that should be it.

 

GRR is suggesting snow with temps near freezing. They have a high of 34 Tues/Low of 32 Tues night/ and a high of 33 on Wednesday with snow. Mentioned snow possibly mixed with sleet at the onset.

 

With the expected slow down this is looking to be mostly a night time event which will surely help the cause as well.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Agreed. Should be mostly snow in Detroit. Perhaps from near/just south Josh on down to the Ohio border could have some freezing rain issues ( before transitioning to snow )  which HPC shows but that should be it.

 

GRR is suggesting snow with temps near freezing. They have a high of 34 Tues/Low of 32 Tues night/ and a high of 33 on Wednesday with snow. Mentioned snow possibly mixed with sleet at the onset.

 

With the expected slow down this is looking to be mostly a night time event which will surely help the cause as well.

 

Yeah right now I expect this to slow 3 more hours which puts the starting time of around 6pm locally, I would bet almost all snow if that happens.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

lol you made me look..  I think that's the first time since the GHD storm I have looked at HPC snow maps because there really hasn't been anything half ass big since.  Dec and Jan sucked before GHD too.

 

prb_24hsnow_ge18_2013022412f072.gif

 

lol. EURO has the weenie band stalled right over us.

 

But all the 0z models have upped the ante. Can't remember the last time we had two 10"+ storms in the same month.

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OntarioWX

OntarioWX

Posted
Posted

lol. EURO has the weenie band stalled right over us.

 

But all the 0z models have upped the ante. Can't remember the last time we had two 10"+ storms in the same month.

Yeah, seriously. If we received 10" from this storm, I think this would officially make this winter a B+ for me, maybe even an A-. February 2013 would be right up there with the snowiest months I've witnessed (who would have thought?) and might even make me satisfied with a lame March. It looks really good for the GTA Hamilton is riding the line with this one. 

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