Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 98 storm was a debacle from a forecasting perspective. Can't believe it's been 15 years. Something has kinda been bugging me about this one. The models have been warming us up just above freezing in the 9z-12z Tuesday timeframe but I'm trying to figure out why. The surface low is still down in southern Missouri, the best WAA aloft occurs before that, low layer flow remains easterly and some pretty decent qpf is being produced during that period of time. None of that really points to a warmup. The only real source of warming to me would seem to be the heat release that occurs with freezing rain. It's certainly debatable what our temps will be at onset but I'm just not sure about temps actually warming during that time. Anyhow, even if temps stay around 32, this could be a case where a lot of accretion would be lost due to heavy rates. I agree. Despite my negative tone... I still have a gut feeling that evaporative cooling processes may lead to a quicker changeover and more snow than many are forecasting for Northern IN *cough*Tim*cough*all rain*cough. ...which leads me to this. I kind of agree, again. But it's such a tough call. Hate, hate, hate these kinds of set ups. Could be boom or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Hmm, it didn't seem that good here. Temps look pretty marginal. Would someone mind posting the text output for LAF? LAF: TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.1 5.5 1005 66 99 0.01 552 548 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.1 0.3 1000 94 89 0.38 542 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 1.9 -0.4 1000 97 87 0.12 538 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 1.4 -0.6 1000 98 93 0.04 538 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -2.1 1003 98 73 0.01 539 537 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -3.7 1005 95 89 0.02 541 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -4.6 1008 95 95 0.03 542 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1010 93 94 0.03 544 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 EURO heightens my concern of N. Indiana ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I agree. Despite my negative tone... ...which leads me to this. I kind of agree, again. But it's such a tough call. Hate, hate, hate these kinds of set ups. Could be boom or bust. Well, my thoughts might be sorta irrelevant now that the models have slowed down the precip onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 not too good but at 12z it could be... or it could be worse lol. better than I thought.. thanks, geos. You know what my bet is for 12z. Do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 LAF: TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.1 5.5 1005 66 99 0.01 552 548 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.1 0.3 1000 94 89 0.38 542 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 1.9 -0.4 1000 97 87 0.12 538 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 1.4 -0.6 1000 98 93 0.04 538 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -2.1 1003 98 73 0.01 539 537 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -3.7 1005 95 89 0.02 541 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -4.6 1008 95 95 0.03 542 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.3 -5.3 1010 93 94 0.03 544 536 Damn.. ugh Sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 What about Toronto. Does it stay all snow here? 00Z FEB24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 00Z 24-FEB -1.0 -10.3 1013 79 64 0.00 538 528 SUN 06Z 24-FEB -5.6 -10.5 1012 85 74 0.00 536 526 SUN 12Z 24-FEB -4.2 -11.2 1012 85 98 0.02 532 522 SUN 18Z 24-FEB 0.4 -10.9 1013 58 97 0.02 531 520 MON 00Z 25-FEB -2.4 -9.5 1017 76 72 0.02 539 526 MON 06Z 25-FEB -5.0 -8.9 1020 87 52 0.00 544 529 MON 12Z 25-FEB -5.9 -8.7 1023 87 35 0.00 549 531 MON 18Z 25-FEB 1.4 -8.5 1023 67 10 0.00 552 533 TUE 00Z 26-FEB -0.5 -7.6 1023 80 22 0.00 555 536 TUE 06Z 26-FEB -2.5 -6.1 1024 86 35 0.00 555 537 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -3.2 -5.4 1022 87 39 0.00 557 539 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.7 -2.5 1018 69 32 0.00 557 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.1 -4.0 1015 74 78 0.00 554 542 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.2 1011 97 100 0.49 548 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.1 -2.9 1007 96 100 0.48 543 537 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.3 -4.8 1003 94 94 0.48 538 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.7 1003 92 96 0.17 536 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.0 -6.1 1002 88 97 0.08 535 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 For those members in the northern suburbs of Chi-town. UGN: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.9 0.3 1007 72 31 0.00 548 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -5.4 1006 95 97 0.52 543 538 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1005 94 96 0.35 541 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -4.9 1006 92 97 0.08 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.2 -4.6 1008 89 96 0.04 543 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.1 -4.2 1011 85 96 0.02 545 536 Local Geos jackpot again, I'm calling it. Early congrats. Of course it couldn't happen to a more deserving person. A snow weenie who shows a positive attitude even when nickel and dimes rear their ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 You know what my bet is for 12z. Do you agree? A wet blanket expectation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yikes on the Euro outputs for Toledo, close to an inch of ice it looks like Yeah that's not true if anything that's rain or a wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 A wet blanket expectation? Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, my thoughts might be sorta irrelevant now that the models have slowed down the precip onset. Yeah, well...I'm still not 100% sure temps warm as much as indicated. Something just doesn't jive...don't why I get that feeling. Might be false hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 You know what my bet is for 12z. Do you agree? south more, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well.lol How did that 1-3 call work out for the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well. Internet porn. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 south more, no. Probably, south, yet it maintains its strength just long enough to slam the Central/Southern Plains to the Mississippi River, makes it up to the WI/IL border, then encounters some dry air and occludes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well. why are you even following this.. Its clear this hobby is no fun for you anymore or maybe you need some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 lol How did that 1-3 call work out for the last storm? Well, my exact call was 2.4", I measured 3.5", so while it wasn't the best, it wasn't that far off for mby. The airport could have embellished their total a bit, or else LE added some moisture there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Probably, south, yet it maintains its strength just long enough to slam the Central/Southern Plains to the Mississippi River, makes it up to the WI/IL border, then encounters some dry air and occludes as well. Tried to stick up for you but now you're just being ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 why are you even following this.. Its clear this hobby is no fun for you anymore or maybe you need some help. Some of this is tongue in cheek now, I used to get more depressed, but I've accepted my fate for this storm. February has still been a good wintry month this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, my exact call was 2.4", I measured 3.5", so while it wasn't the best, it wasn't that far off for mby. The airport could have embellished their total a bit, or else LE added some moisture there. lollllll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well. Yeah no one cares what your call is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Hoosier, put the kid out of his misery. For his own benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, my exact call was 2.4", I measured 3.5", so while it wasn't the best, it wasn't that far off for mby. The airport could have embellished their total a bit, or else LE added some moisture there. Or, maybe you were wrong and suck at making calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Some of this is tongue in cheek now, I used to get more depressed, but I've accepted my fate for this storm. February has still been a good wintry month this season. keep your tounge and cheek crap to accuweather or the other board maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Some of this is tongue in cheek now, I used to get more depressed, but I've accepted my fate for this storm. February has still been a good wintry month this season. You need to take a long break dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Right! Well, not really, another QPF cut, probably for ORD as well. Probably, south, yet it maintains its strength just long enough to slam the Central/Southern Plains to the Mississippi River, makes it up to the WI/IL border, then encounters some dry air and occludes as well. Remind me again why you're on Americanwx at 2AM with that type of attitude toward this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Bunch of lousy slant stickers at MKE. For shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Tried to stick up for you but now you're just being ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 DET and DTW please? CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW LAT= 42.23 LON= -83.33 ELE= 663 00Z FEB24 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.3 1006 97 98 0.38 546 541 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -1.7 1003 97 98 0.30 541 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.3 1001 97 97 0.11 537 537 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.1 -4.9 1002 90 89 0.07 538 536 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.7 -6.3 1004 91 96 0.05 538 535 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.1 -5.9 1005 90 94 0.02 539 535 THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -6.1 1009 87 93 0.01 541 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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