A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol First call for YBY Alek? I think I'm on the board for 1.7" or something like that IMBY...not feeling great about it but you know. If Illinois wins tomorrow, I'll revisit...otherwise let it ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Honestly models are all over the place you could see as much as a foot to as little as 3". Plan on 6" Thank you! Hoping for 12" of course..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Microcast just shown...1" for Chicago proper, 2-3 inches in the W/NW Suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I think I'm on the board for 1.7" or something like that IMBY...not feeling great about it but you know. If Illinois wins tomorrow, I'll revisit...otherwise let it ride! If they win tomorrow...I'm going 12.5" for your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Microcast just shown...1" for Chicago proper, 2-3 inches in the W/NW Suburbs Lol lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 What's he saying? He's saying he's concerned about this system and think it has some potential to dump some good snows in/near our cwa, but that its still too early to get too tingly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 He's saying he's concerned about this system and think it has some potential to dump some good snows in/near our cwa, but that its still too early to get too tingly yet. Tell him to start drinking whatever Nichols is drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Slightly tingly ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 18z GFS gives MSN 0.6" liquid over the course of 60 hours. We'll only be a few degrees below freezing so maybe some heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Brutal. Cool example of cold air damning to the east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Nice to see the 18z GFS continue to trend cooler. I think QPF might be overdone a bit as models tend to hold on to mid level RH too long after the actual front has pushed through, especially when the upper low is to the west. Looks like a slushy 3-6" of snow could fall on Toronto Tuesday evening/night, least near Lk Ontario most north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 IWX mentioned that the CIPS analogs had low scores for this event. I saw someone else mention (maybe baro in C/W) that the system is a bit atypical as well so maybe this one has a trick or two up its sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, Patrick, you're not the only one concerned with the possibility of ice. I'm scheduled to drive from Indianapolis back north up U.S. 31 to Michiana Tuesday afternoon. Better take my wx radio with me for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well, good news for some thru 192hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 IWX mentioned that the CIPS analogs had low scores for this event. I saw someone else mention (maybe baro in C/W) that the system is a bit atypical as well so maybe this one has a trick or two up its sleeve. Cherry picking here, but #1 analog using the 12z NAM at 48 hours (Great Plains sector) is March 8, 1998. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=GP&fhr=F048&model=NAM212&dt=1998030806 12z GFS analogs at 60 hours and beyond aren't as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 March 9, 1998 at MDW...in case some were wondering. METAR KMDW 091053Z 01017G33KT 1/2SM TSSN FG OVC008 01/00 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1011 TSB48 SLP969 R04R/3500V5000FT OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD SNINCR 1/1 P0003 T00060000 $ SPECI KMDW 091125Z 36019G31KT 1/2SM TSSN FG BKN004 OVC008 01/00 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 01031/1102 TSE16B25 R04R/2200V3000FT OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD P0001 $ METAR KMDW 091353Z COR 01023G38KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M01/M01 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 01038/1349 SLP992 SNINCR 2/4 R31C/1200FT P0001 T10061006 $ METAR KMDW 091553Z 35019G28KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M02 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 01030/1455 PRESRR SLP021 SNINCR 3/7 R31C/2400FT P0000 T10221022 $ METAR KMDW 091753Z 35019G24KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M03/M04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 33030/1656 PRESRR SLP059 SNINCR 2/10 R31C/2600FT 4/010 P0000 60003 T10331039 10000 21033 51057 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 wisconsinwx just might ask Randy to close his membership here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 lol One last weenie post. As you can see, March 8-9, 1998 was east of the projected track of this one...and strengthening as it moved northeast. Was a very dynamic storm, as even LAF had periods of +SN on the 9th. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0309.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 we had 0.75" of qpf with 1" being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The interaction between the Strong Southern Vort and the Northern Stream is going to play havoc on the track, temps, among things. Without the Northern Stream's help this would definitely not be trending as far North as it has. But that it is what it is. At least it's not that far out there. Regardless of how it is ends up I can say I am pretty confident the H5 low will make it into East Central TX/NE Texas/SW AK/SE OK before it pulls North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 wisconsinwx just might ask Randy to close his membership here. Don't remember that storm, but bet I was pissed at the time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I remember that storm and hated it. I was 13; at first I was happy as school was canceled, then got upset when I discovered that I wasn't shoveling snow but cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 we had 0.75" of qpf with 1" being snow. Ouch. Snow totals from NE IL for that one, per Storm Data. 12" - Peotone 11" - Crete, MDW 9" - LOT, Park Forest 8" - Kankakee, Manhattan, Plainfield, Winfield 7" - Wheaton 6" - Aurora, Downers Grove, Geneva, ORD LAF had 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 From the DVN past events page regarding the '98 storm... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 From the DVN past events page regarding the '98 storm... lol. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/dvn/ events/0308snow_aftermath.gif The Rock River screw storm, yeah no thanks. Best approach on the coming system is just sit and watch til sunday afternoon or evening, if things look good then... Start getting excited. Hard for me and some colleagues to buy anything right now after getting burned again. And boy did we get the riot act after the last bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 DTX acknowledges the marginal thermal profiles and THEN COMMITS WEENIE SUICIDE. Just kidding. They go on to explain that outstanding deformation and moisture quality will lend itself to intense precipitation rates that will not only favor snow, but likely for longer than models suggest. And personally, the fact that the GFS is the outlier (warmest model) is great news since the GFS sucks. If the ECMWF was the warm outlier, I might be worried. Bring on the snow for southeast Michigan! THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THEGREAT BASIN AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRAVERSING MEXICO AND LIFTINGINTO THE SERN US...KEY FEATURES IN THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED WITH THEUPSTREAM HEIGHT AND UPPER WIND FIELDS AND ARE IN REASONABLY GOODAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A POWERFUL UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO ARKANSAS MONNIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFYAS IT DIVES INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY...WHERE SOME PHASING WITH THESUBTROPICAL JET WILL OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVETILT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS THE SRN MS VALLEY MON NIGHT. THE MOISTURECHANNEL ALREADY SHOWS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSSTHE NRN GOMEX. SO THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL FEED PLENTYOF MOISTURE INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM.MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A COMPACTUPPER LOW AS THIS SYSTEM ROTATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUES. THESYSTEM WILL HAVE FULLY MATURED BY THIS TIME AND WILL BE UNDERGOINGTHE OCCLUSION PROCESS. THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED WELLEAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE THESE FACTORS WOULD TYPICALLYSUGGEST THAT PRECIP WOULD BE ON THE WANE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPERLOW...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A WELL DEFINED COLD CONVEYOR TRANSPORTINGATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. MIDTROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOWIS FORECAST TO BE OUTSTANDING WITHIN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW.THE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS SE MI ON TUESAND CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUES NIGHT.ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILLLEAD TO EXCELLENT MOISTURE QUALITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION REGION.MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4-5 G/KG WITHIN THE900-700MB LAYER. THIS COUPLED WITH DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT/ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT DECREASE/ WILL POSE THE RISKOF HEAVY PRECIP ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPERLOW...IMPACTING SE MI TUES AND TUES NIGHT. THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILLLIKELY BE ALL SNOW AS RESIDUAL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTINGLOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. MODELSOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER SHOW WARMING IN BOTH THE BOUNDARY LAYER ANDALOFT WHICH COULD CHANGE SNOW OVER TO SLEET AND/OR RAIN ATTIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS/PARTICULARLY THE GFS/ SHOW THE WARM LAYER TO BE FAIRLY DEEP ATTIMES...THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE SHOWN TO ONLY REACH +2C. COOLING DUETO MELTING WITH INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP THE COLUMNCOLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW LONGER THAN MODEL SOUNDINGSSUGGEST. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS AND CONSIDERING THE MODELAGREEMENT...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVETHE CAPABILITY OF DROPPING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF HEAVY-WET SNOW ACROSSPORTIONS OF SE MI TUES AND TUES NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HEIGHTEN THEPOTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE HWO A LITTLE HARDER.MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE TUES NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILLLIFT NORTH AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THECENTRAL PLAINS...THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT THE TRACKOF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THEMODELS DO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY COMPACT WAVE...THE GFS AND CANADIANSUGGEST THE DEFORMATION WILL BECOME MORE FRACTURED WITH A BETTERPUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTO SE MI. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS SOMEFAIRLY MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LIFTING INTO THE AREA WITH THEASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FORADDITIONAL ACCUMS WANING LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THE ECMWF ON THEOTHER HAND TAKES THE REMNANT UPPER ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON WED /FARTHEREAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS/ AND MAINTAINS SOME SEMBLANCE OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER SE MI THROUGHWED...SUGGESTING SOME PERSISTENCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INTO THEDAY WED AND SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 DTX acknowledges the marginal thermal profiles and THEN COMMITS WEENIE SUICIDE. Just kidding. They go on to explain that outstanding deformation and moisture quality will lend itself to intense precipitation rates that will not only favor snow, but likely for longer than models suggest. And personally, the fact that the GFS is the outlier (warmest model) is great news since the GFS sucks. The ECMWF was the warm outlier, I might be worried. Bring on the snow for southeast Michigan! Even the GFS has a good amount of snow with the Cobb method, which might be the way to go with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I was in 6th grade at the time. Yet, I do not remember this storm (the one in early March 1998). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Marquette shot themselves today and will probably lose on Monday.. Toss in this coming event mind screwing wisconsinwx should make for some epic weenie post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This system doesn't have classic geometry of features, so CIPS fails to capture anything relevant about it. It's better for us this way anyway since synoptic scale geometry really has very little to do with who ends up getting the highest snow amounts (that's why CIPS fails on a regular basis, unless you count vague similarities in overall pattern as being useful). IWX mentioned that the CIPS analogs had low scores for this event. I saw someone else mention (maybe baro in C/W) that the system is a bit atypical as well so maybe this one has a trick or two up its sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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