AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I cannot recall a 33F rainstorm here to be honest. The last time I remember one was Dec. 12th (?) 2010... Rain for at least a few hours when the temp was 33-34F, finally turned over to snow in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro snow maps still have ORD 6+. true but Alek says rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I can't remember the dates of the top of my head, but a couple years back, we had a WSW for 4-8" of snow. There was a small chance that rain would mix in, but GRR discounted that it would last long enough to limit accumulations much. I was stoked... started off as light snow, then there was more "mist" than snow hitting the windshield. I figured it'd only last a little bit. I remember getting out of work and there was no snow to be found, except the old dirty piles. A moderate rain, and temperature in my jeep said 33.Haha, what a let down that one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro snow maps still have ORD 6+. Where do you guys get the euro snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The last time I remember one was Dec. 12th (?) 2010... Rain for at least a few hours when the temp was 33-34F, finally turned over to snow in the AM I meant a rainstorm where it rained at 33F nearly the whole time. Yeah that storm started as a few hours of rain then switched to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Where do you guys get the euro snow maps? I'm using Accuweather Pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 true but Alek says rain. Alek says stuff like that all time time. He's the forum clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 true but Alek says rain. Hard to tell if he's being serious but I'd think the bigger concern would be potentially losing some accumulation due to marginal temps rather than outright rain. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is what these models are doing to us.. https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=575368405826114 That was good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hard to tell if he's being serious but I'd think the bigger concern would be potentially losing some accumulation due to marginal temps rather than outright rain. Will be interesting to watch. and the way this winter has gone he could end up being correct just dont think you can make that call at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing that does look certain, it's going to sit and spin over the GL with light precip on the backside for a couple of days. Looks to be what we've experienced several times in this area this year, lots of light snow/flurries with little accumulation. Just enough to give it that 'wintry' look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Us Northern Indiana folks aren't to far away from seeing a potentially significant ice storm. Models would just need to trend a bit cooler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 994 over so-cen MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Risk of a Major Storm Increasing for Southeast Lower Michiganhttp://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/risk-of-major-storm-increasing-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like IWX just updated there point/click forecast and they still seem sold on the idea of a colder storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 One thing that does look certain, it's going to sit and spin over the GL with light precip on the backside for a couple of days. Looks to be what we've experienced several times in this area this year, lots of light snow/flurries with little accumulation. Just enough to give it that 'wintry' look. With such a strong signal for synoptic wraparound lasting for days, dont be so sure its the trace variety. Could very well be a long duration accumulating snow after the main show has passed. It will probably do no harm to the roadways but the snowpack will slowly grow deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Could be quite miserable. Also possible...but LAF has this weird tendency to hold onto enough "lower warmth" to eliminate flakes. You'll have my condolences either way. It is possible to get wet flakes with temperatures reaching the mid 30s, but it's not exactly riveting when it's melting as fast as it comes down. I'd almost prefer freezing rain over slush balls that melt on contact. Who knows though, it could still be cold enough to accumulate later on even if it starts out wet. I wouldn't underestimate the potential for a quick accumulation if it comes down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Forecasts around here are still showing marginal temps at best. Last forecast I saw had the Mon-Thurs temps at, or near 40 degrees. However, last night, Jerry Taft said "accumulating snow" in reference to this storm, so, we shall see. I worry about the marginal temps, more than anything else. I can easily see 3 to 4 inches of concrete from this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 when reading LOT's afternoon AFD, it sure doesn't sound like they're convinced at all about this being a snow maker. I lost count how many times I read the word 'mix'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 That was good! LOL hehe...Its hilarious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol. we'll see. euro looks good for you as is NAM... surprisingly euro and nam not too dam far off each other imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 18z GFS doesn't transfer to the east coast until hour 162... But it shoots the 32 degree line all the way to APX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol. we'll see. This is even more lol worthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 when reading LOT's afternoon AFD, it sure doesn't sound like they're convinced at all about this being a snow maker. I lost count how many times I read the word 'mix'. Strange disco to be honest. Well, not all of it but I had trouble following certain parts. FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS EXPECTED AS FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN...THINKING THE COLUMN WILL NOT SATURATE AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ALSO...GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AIDE IN KEEPING PRECIP LIQUID ALOFT. USED 34 DEGREES AS THE CUTOFF BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTH OVERNIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE CWA. AREAS NORTHWEST OF A HIGHLAND PARK TO AMBOY LINE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE WILL GET THE WINTER SLOP AS MY COLLEAGUES SAY. GOING WITH A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ WITH THE WARM LAYER REACHING TEMPS LESS THAN 3 DEGREES INDICATING ICE PELLETS AND SNOW. HOWEVER FACTORING IN THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW BEING ADVECTED IN AND THE GULF MOISTURE...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 "THE SNOW SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY HEAVY...BUT 1 TO UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED." From GRR... better than 1 to 3" like was thought earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Strange disco to be honest. Well, not all of it but I had trouble following certain parts. FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS EXPECTED AS FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN...THINKING THE COLUMN WILL NOT SATURATE AS QUICKLY AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ALSO...GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AIDE IN KEEPING PRECIP LIQUID ALOFT. USED 34 DEGREES AS THE CUTOFF BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTH OVERNIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE CWA. AREAS NORTHWEST OF A HIGHLAND PARK TO AMBOY LINE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE WILL GET THE WINTER SLOP AS MY COLLEAGUES SAY. GOING WITH A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ WITH THE WARM LAYER REACHING TEMPS LESS THAN 3 DEGREES INDICATING ICE PELLETS AND SNOW. HOWEVER FACTORING IN THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW BEING ADVECTED IN AND THE GULF MOISTURE...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT. Another one for Baum to add to his sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah that AFD was a head scratcher. Doesn't line up with HPC or the AFD by DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Riding 2.3" at ORD...I'll go with 1.5" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 18z GFS says i'll be busting high again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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