Hoosier Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It's gonna be close. Just a bit cooler and we have mostly snow... That warm nose aloft is a menace early on. It does get wiped out pretty nicely on Tuesday but there are still BL temp concerns for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The potential is there, but temperatures are going to make it soo close. Maybe this will be like that storm we had ironically, I think 3 years ago today or yesterday. It was 31-32F with heavy snow all day. I think Monroe ticked up to 34 and it rained most of the time, but we had all snow here and got 6-9". Several big storms the last decade near this date. Feb 20/21, 2011: 10.2" imby, 10.2" DTW Feb 22/23, 2010: 7.7" imby, 6.9" DTW Feb 20, 2005: 6.4" imby, 5.6" DTW Feb 22/23, 2003: 11.5" imby, 7.3" DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If it's anything like the system a couple weeks ago, then there will be members that are buried! Thermal profiles actually look more favorable on that text output than 2/7 was, if I recall correctly, the column was only barely below freezing at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to check out some soundings at work later to see the temp profile down below 850 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another non event. I'm happy even if we get rain. Last year was awful and we can really use any precip we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The dewpoints in the warmest layer are all initially below freezing which is a good thing. The main problem will be keeping the boundary layer cold enough for accumulation in areas that don't already have snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW LAT= 42.23 LON= -83.33 ELE= 663 12Z FEB232 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 06Z 26-FEB -4.9 -1.1 1020 78 27 0.00 557 541 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.9 0.2 1015 75 15 0.00 556 544 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.4 2.4 1008 73 96 0.02 553 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.8 1004 97 80 0.67 543 539 WED 06Z 27-FEB 1.4 -0.2 1001 97 79 0.17 537 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.2 -1.9 1000 99 93 0.12 533 533 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.4 -3.2 1000 93 96 0.09 530 530 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -4.6 1000 99 96 0.12 531 531 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -4.8 1000 95 92 0.03 531 531 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.5 1002 91 94 0.04 532 531 THU 18Z 28-FEB 2.1 -7.5 1005 72 89 0.03 536 531 Much warmer...Seems to me the 12z/00z are always different, meaning the 00z tends to be colder, wetter, while the 12z is always warmer, less qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW LAT= 42.23 LON= -83.33 ELE= 663 12Z FEB23 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 06Z 26-FEB -4.9 -1.1 1020 78 27 0.00 557 541 TUE 12Z 26-FEB -2.9 0.2 1015 75 15 0.00 556 544 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.4 2.4 1008 73 96 0.02 553 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.8 1004 97 80 0.67 543 539 WED 06Z 27-FEB 1.4 -0.2 1001 97 79 0.17 537 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.2 -1.9 1000 99 93 0.12 533 533 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.4 -3.2 1000 93 96 0.09 530 530 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -4.6 1000 99 96 0.12 531 531 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -4.8 1000 95 92 0.03 531 531 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.5 1002 91 94 0.04 532 531 THU 18Z 28-FEB 2.1 -7.5 1005 72 89 0.03 536 531 Much warmer...Seems to me the 12z/00z are always different... I wonder if that is implying mostly snow as Ptype? SO close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 what is the Euro showing for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro run came in colder at YYZ with more spread out precipitation. Total QPF 1.17", supports mostly snow for toronto although ratios would be between 8-10:1. WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.6 -3.8 1013 75 87 0.01 553 543WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.2 1009 96 100 0.42 546 539WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.1 -3.5 1005 95 95 0.23 540 536WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.3 1002 94 98 0.13 536 535THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -4.4 1001 99 97 0.12 532 531THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.5 999 99 100 0.16 528 529THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -6.0 999 98 98 0.11 527 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Thermal profiles actually look more favorable on that text output than 2/7 was, if I recall correctly, the column was only barely below freezing at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to check out some soundings at work later to see the temp profile down below 850 though. wasn't much of a warm nose at 925mb on the 0z Euro, actually stayed below freezing even before precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 IWX seemed confident in a significant winter storm this morning with there AFD...lets see if they change there tune any later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This thing might bring some of the coldest rain I've ever seen. Despite the cold air being "stale", we will have low level easterly flow for much of the event which means that temps will not be in a hurry to rise and any colder shifts could spell a significant round of freezing rain before temps warm up enough. Maybe we can get a little snow with the wraparound.32.7 and rain?That's be the last straw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro at 120 850 temperatures are a little marginal but there is the potential for some lake enhancement off of lake Huron in the backlash zone. Could get a band over Gary Indiana later on if the GFS is right in pulling down colder 850 temps straight from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro run came in colder at YYZ with more spread out precipitation. Total QPF 1.17", supports mostly snow for toronto although ratios would be between 8-10:1. WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.6 -3.8 1013 75 87 0.01 553 543 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.2 1009 96 100 0.42 546 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.1 -3.5 1005 95 95 0.23 540 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.6 -3.3 1002 94 98 0.13 536 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -4.4 1001 99 97 0.12 532 531 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.5 999 99 100 0.16 528 529 THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -6.0 999 98 98 0.11 527 527 Nice, looking good for Guelph. I'm thinking it will be slightly colder here than YYZ which should support more snow. Surface temps should be ever so slightly below zero here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 MKETUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.4 -2.2 1006 75 73 0.01 546 540 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.4 1003 95 90 0.54 539 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.2 -4.6 1002 97 98 0.18 536 535 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -4.9 1003 96 86 0.04 535 533 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -4.5 1004 89 94 0.03 537 534 Euro has measurable precip until Mar 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 32.7 and rain? That's be the last straw... I wouldn't be shocked if we hang barely above freezing when much of the precip falls. In some ways this is setting up to be our worst tease this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 32.7 and rain? That's be the last straw... Non-sticking snow is more likely than plain rain IMHO. Fine drizzle mixed with big wet flakes is another possibility. I've witnessed the situation often enough where it goes back and forth between drizzle and bursts of heavy silver-dollar snowflakes when the temperature is a degree above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 guys any snow will stick if it falls at a high intensity rate..espc at night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Non-sticking snow is more likely than plain rain IMHO. Fine drizzle mixed with big wet flakes is another possibility. I've witnessed the situation often enough where it goes back and forth between drizzle and bursts of heavy silver-dollar snowflakes when the temperature is a degree above freezing. Yeah I'd agree with you there. Although, if this is at night, then you could see some accumulation at LAF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The 12z NAM is promising in that it brings the precip shield back up into southeast Iowa. I'm not sure how this winter is better, let alone "much" better. Last winter we had 22 inches of snow. This winter we have 17 inches and about 3 of those inches have fallen during daylight. Well, last winter was ridiculously warm and dry. Snowless December 2011 and the first actual snowfall occurring in mid January 2012. This winter is just the opposite even if we got a little less snow this winter than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I wouldn't be shocked if we hang barely above freezing when much of the precip falls. In some ways this is setting up to be our worst tease this winter. Yeah, It seems to do that around here... a lot. To me, either way this system leans, difference for some could be significant icing vs. heavy-wet snow. Looks like there may be WSW's in places that haven't had them since 2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I wouldn't be shocked if we hang barely above freezing when much of the precip falls. In some ways this is setting up to be our worst tease this winter. Could be quite miserable. Non-sticking snow is more likely than plain rain IMHO. Fine drizzle mixed with big wet flakes is another possibility. I've witnessed the situation often enough where it goes back and forth between drizzle and bursts of heavy silver-dollar snowflakes when the temperature is a degree above freezing. Also possible...but LAF has this weird tendency to hold onto enough "lower warmth" to eliminate flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 MKETUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.4 -2.2 1006 75 73 0.01 546 540 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.4 1003 95 90 0.54 539 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.2 -4.6 1002 97 98 0.18 536 535 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -4.9 1003 96 86 0.04 535 533 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -4.5 1004 89 94 0.03 537 534 Euro has measurable precip until Mar 2nd. Looking good. It'll be a heavy wet palm crusher type forsure, but All-Snow most likely Also will be pretty nice to see on and off snow showers everyday for a week! Been awhile since we've had a period like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is what these models are doing to us.. https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=575368405826114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Only for the lolz, but 12z NAM text data for LAF would be the "best" case scenario. Flips to thumping snow for awhile...totaling 3.3". Then back to rain to wash it away. 66 02/26 06Z 32 31 81 19 0.07 0.00 546 552 2.1 -18.3 1007 100 -RA 042OVC325 0.0 9.269 02/26 09Z 32 31 81 20 0.19 0.00 547 548 3.1 -18.8 1001 100 RA 006OVC278 0.0 1.672 02/26 12Z 32 32 95 13 0.32 0.00 543 544 -1.6 -18.8 1000 100 SN 006OVC316 3.3 0.175 02/26 15Z 33 32 105 12 0.13 0.00 538 537 -0.9 -22.9 999 100 -RA 011OVC206 0.0 11.578 02/26 18Z 34 34 150 8 0.07 0.00 534 533 -2.6 -26.3 998 100 -RA 007OVC102 0.0 2.381 02/26 21Z 37 36 163 6 0.00 0.00 532 531 -2.8 -27.8 999 94 015BKN099 0.0 7.284 02/27 00Z 34 34 184 6 0.01 0.00 532 533 -3.8 -28.0 1001 94 -RA 007BKN124 0.0 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Anyone feel like posting VPZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Also, the UKMET appears to be colder than the Euro. Most notable is the 5 C isotherm at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah, It seems to do that around here... a lot. To me, either way this system leans, difference for some could be significant icing vs. heavy-wet snow. Looks like there may be WSW's in places that haven't had them since 2011! I cannot recall a 33F rainstorm here to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro snow maps still have ORD 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hate asking but could anyone tell me QPF output for DVN on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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