A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 0 for 2? 2 for 2, DTW over performed...i nailed what no one else saw coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS text for toronto looks messy: Lots of QPF that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2 for 2, DTW over performed...i nailed what no one else saw coming. For February 18th-19th? I'm pretty sure that was an all rain event, aside from the wrap-around lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS text for toronto looks messy: Per BUFKIT, it's still a snow through the heart of the QPF. Then as the rates slacken off Weds. morning, it turns over to -RA/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Per BUFKIT, it's still a snow through the heart of the QPF. Then as the rates slacken off Weds. morning, it turns over to -RA/drizzle. How much snow does BUFKIT have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 1. This event is not December 1974 (not even close I imagine). 2. I'm pretty sure what Harry meant by "the one", which was likely in sarcasm, was a warning criteria snowfall. Aside from December 26th, which was a completely different setup, we haven't had any warning criteria snowfalls since February 2011, mostly due to the poor synoptic pattern. Based on the aforementioned and the marginal setup this time around, it's much safer to assume we won't see warning criteria snowfall this time around either. But somehow, we'll manage to get another 1-4". Was using Dec 1974 for a temp reference, not in any way trying to imply this is a redux Temps are definitely marginal, but keep this in mind. Often times when a models text output has you at 33F with snow, during the snow the dynamic cooling turns it to 31F and snow. Im not saying we will get buried with snow, but Im starting to like potential here. We may exceed our seasonal average by Feb 27th here. Now, as long as the snow rates dont get obscene (which they likely won't), the main roads will probably be ok (wet/slushy) unlike the disaster they were yesterday morning. But a nice, thick carpet of heart attack snow is certainly a DECENT possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It has been the best model all year. This is a rain to light snow event....SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. we'll see. Gino and I were talking last night about this. He said it had his interest and has the looks of a March snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 no nope, not for you over there. We'll take it though if it wants to own us over here. GHD equilizer storm - there, storm named.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 How much snow does BUFKIT have? 11.2" of snow on 1.38" of liquid using the max temp in profile technique for ratios. I think it's overdone a bit although GFS profiles are usually less weenieish than NAM profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 12z GGEM farthest nw of any model... takes surface low to west-central IL and Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GEM brings slp over CHI, good hit for SE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This is by far our most thread the needle event of the winter, probably several years, so Im paying a lot more attention to model ptype outputs than usual. Im curious...ae they usually accurate? Biases?It would appear that the NAM, GFS, and EURO ptypes would indicate some mix but mostly snow, while the GEM would indicate some mix/snow but mostly rain for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It has been the best model all year. This is a rain to light snow event....SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. hmm..funny, that map looks even better for my area of SWMI. Cha-ching! and yeah, the lake just kills you on marginal temp scenarios.. as for the GFS. Its done better (best) all year and we've done poorly so time for a new day and it can stink while our season ticks up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 11.2" of snow on 1.38" of liquid using the max temp in profile technique for ratios. I think it's overdone a bit although GFS profiles are usually less weenieish than NAM profiles. Wow. If that much snow accumulates that's not going to be very nice to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 The potential is there, but temperatures are going to make it soo close. Maybe this will be like that storm we had ironically, I think 3 years ago today or yesterday. It was 31-32F with heavy snow all day. I think Monroe ticked up to 34 and it rained most of the time, but we had all snow here and got 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'll make this easy. First and last call for LAF...0.74" of rainfall. Bust. It's gonna come in slightly colder. The mixer will be spinning and spreading 4 - 4.5" of cement on LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro looks big through 72hr. Takes it from 1000mb to 992mb in 6hr as it moves NE through AR. 992mb south of STL at 72hr. Most of MO ripping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Nice graphic put out by MKX. Shows the track agreement coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro @ 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another system with weakening baroclinicity and early occlusion. It's funny in January the problem was always the northern stream westerlies being too fast to allow proper phasing. With a raging polar vortex over Canada we couldn't buy a negatively tilted system. Now it's the opposite problem. Now the STJ has been screaming ahead leaving the rest of the system in the dust. There is no happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro at 96.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This thing might bring some of the coldest rain I've ever seen. Despite the cold air being "stale", we will have low level easterly flow for much of the event which means that temps will not be in a hurry to rise and any colder shifts could spell a significant round of freezing rain before temps warm up enough. Maybe we can get a little snow with the wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This thing might bring some of the coldest rain I've ever seen. Despite the cold air being "stale", we will have low level easterly flow for much of the event which means that temps will not be in a hurry to rise and any colder shifts could spell a significant round of freezing rain before temps warm up enough. Maybe we can get a little snow with the wraparound. It's gonna be close. Just a bit cooler and we have mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Jumped the shark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Could be a concrete mixer coming. I might buy an advisory type event, but ratios will be crappy for anything more for the likes of DVN, MKX and LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 DPA TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.7 -3.5 1002 91 97 0.29 542 540 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -2.6 1000 95 94 0.22 536 536 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.3 -2.1 1000 97 80 0.13 534 534 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -3.4 1002 97 85 0.02 534 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Could be a concrete mixer coming. I might buy an advisory type event, but ratios will be crappy for anything more for the likes of DVN, MKX and LOT. If it's anything like the system a couple weeks ago, then there will be members that are buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Euro at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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