dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Kansas City turning into Northern Michigan... Significant winter storm possible Sunday night through Tuesday... A winter storm system will lift into the area on Sunday... bringingaccumulating snow to the region from late Sunday evening throughTuesday afternoon. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possibleacross northeast Kansas... northern... and central Missouri. Blowingsnow may also be a concern Monday night and Tuesday as northwestwinds gust up to 30 mph. While exact snow amounts remain somewhatuncertain... the overall probability of accumulating snow is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 LOT appears to be favoring a colder solution based on this mornings afd p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Surface temperatures between 0.4 and 1.2 the entire time with 850's between -1 and -4. We're going to need heavy precip rates with those sfc temps. Although I'm assuming the 1.2c is when the pcpn starts and we bulb down to the 0.4c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 My days of busting high are over...the last few calls I've made have been embarrassingly weenie lol Son, what say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It's the 84 hr NAM and it looks reasonably similar to the other globals? Wow. Pinch me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, I think even my 2-4 call will be weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 We're going to need heavy precip rates with those sfc temps. Although I'm assuming the 1.2c is when the pcpn starts and we bulb down to the 0.4c. Here are the raw numbers for YYZ WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.4 -2.7 1013 75 84 0.01 553 542 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -1.9 1009 96 99 0.56 546 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -4.0 1003 96 100 0.30 539 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.1 -4.0 1000 90 89 0.19 534 534 THU 00Z 28-FEB 1.2 -3.9 1000 96 96 0.10 532 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.5 -4.9 1001 96 76 0.07 532 532 THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.1 -5.6 1003 95 84 0.03 532 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well, I think even my 2-4 call will be weenie. All your calls are weenie. LOCK IT IN LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well it looks like I may completely miss out. Ah well, at least this winter was MUCH better than last year's lame excuse of a winter. The 12z NAM is promising in that it brings the precip shield back up into southeast Iowa. I'm not sure how this winter is better, let alone "much" better. Last winter we had 22 inches of snow. This winter we have 17 inches and about 3 of those inches have fallen during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Could this be the one? Razor thin potential. Have to stick with bi-seasonal trends and assume the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to make my first call for Toronto: 4" on grassy surfaces and 2" on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Here are the raw numbers for YYZ I'd love to see those sfc temps come down a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Key difference I see between the NAM and the GFS at 84 is that post-occlusion, the GFS is keeping the initial MW storm dominant, while the NAM is showing more indications of a transfer to the coast and thus colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'll make this easy. First and last call for LAF...0.74" of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Warmer GFS still snow though locally: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Razor thin potential. Have to stick with bi-seasonal trends and assume the worst. Sticking with the seasonal trends? I guess I should assume this event will overperform like almost every other one has then. Whats so razor thin about the potential? This storm that was cutting to MSP in fantasyland now looks quite decent for this region, and some are acting like its impossible for snow to stick when its 33F in late February north of I80. Detroit was strangled with 19.3" of wet snow on Dec 1/2, 1974, and temps during the ENTIRE storm ranged from 30-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'll make this easy. First and last call for ORD...2.1" of 5:1 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I'm going to make my first call for Toronto: 4" on grassy surfaces and 2" on paved surfaces. There's going to be a N-S cline. Least snow nearest Lake Ontario, a bit more along 401 corridor, most in KW-Milton-Caledon and maybe the Oak Ridges through York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Warmer GFS still snow though locally: gfssnow.jpg Doesn't it seem crazy that we are talking about the GFS being the warmest model for this time period. Usually we are talking about it being several degrees below expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Oh and I am done making calls for Chicago, every time I do it is underdone, and I don't want to say 0 because it is impossible to get negative snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Doesn't it seem crazy that we are talking about the GFS being the warmest model for this time period. Usually we are talking about it being several degrees below expectations. red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Another occluding pos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 red flag Lol, maybe or maybe it is just the GFS being a ****ty model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Sticking with the seasonal trends? I guess I should assume this event will overperform like almost every other one has then. Whats so razor thin about the potential? This storm that was cutting to MSP in fantasyland now looks quite decent for this region, and some are acting like its impossible for snow to stick when its 33F in late February north of I80. Detroit was strangled with 19.3" of wet snow on Dec 1/2, 1974, and temps during the ENTIRE storm ranged from 30-33F. 1. This event is not December 1974 (not even close I imagine). 2. I'm pretty sure what Harry meant by "the one", which was likely in sarcasm, was a warning criteria snowfall. Aside from December 26th, which was a completely different setup, we haven't had any warning criteria snowfalls since February 2011, mostly due to the poor synoptic pattern. Based on the aforementioned and the marginal setup this time around, it's much safer to assume we won't see warning criteria snowfall this time around either. But somehow, we'll manage to get another 1-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lol, maybe or maybe it is just the GFS being a ****ty model. It has been the best model all year. This is a rain to light snow event....SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It has been the best model all year. This is a rain to light snow event....SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. Nope that reward goes to the Euro. Has been the best model all year and forever due to how many more algorithms go into each run. Every model is far behind the power of the Euro, something the United States has admitted to knowing and hopefully has some intention to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. congrats DTW next 0 for 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 GFS text for toronto looks messy: WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -0.6 1012 91 95 0.04 552 543 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.2 0.0 1003 96 99 0.71 543 541 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -3.3 999 97 86 0.44 533 533 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.7 -3.2 998 98 90 0.03 531 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 1.5 -3.2 998 98 99 0.10 530 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.7 -4.5 997 96 89 0.07 526 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 It has been the best model all year. This is a rain to light snow event....SE MI might be far enough east of the occlusion to stay mostly snow but it's a non-event for MBY. Best model for Northern Stream stuff, big phasing events it has been a sack of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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