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February 25-26 Winter Storm

wisconsinwx

By wisconsinwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ORD 
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK 


TUE 18Z 26-FEB -0.3 -3.2 1004 89 100 0.17 544 542 
WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.0 1002 94 90 0.44 540 538 
WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.4 1002 99 84 0.06 538 537 
WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -4.1 1002 99 96 0.05 537 536 
WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.2 -4.8 1004 93 94 0.05 538 535 
THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.3 -6.1 1007 91 98 0.07 539 533 
THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.3 -5.8 1009 88 96 0.07 541 534 

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Looks like a cement snow at DPA/ORD, about 70" liquid with temps hugging freezing.

 

:lmao:

 

Wet run!

 

Extending to cover all the backlash snow.

 

MKE: 0.83"

ORD: 0.97"

 

MKE:

 

 

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.5    1005      95      98    0.35     543     539    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.7    1004      97      97    0.23     541     538    WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.6    1004      96      97    0.10     539     536    WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.8    -5.1    1005      89      97    0.04     540     536    THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.3    1008      89      98    0.06     541     535    THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.0    -5.4    1010      82      94    0.04     543     535       THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.1    -8.5    1017      72      45    0.01     544     530
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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

FULL QPF

 

DET

WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -1.9 1005 98 98 0.60 544 541 
WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.8 -2.4 1001 95 94 0.20 539 538 
WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.9 1000 96 97 0.09 537 537 
WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.1 -5.1 1000 93 97 0.08 533 534 
THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.6 -5.5 1000 96 100 0.08 531 531 
THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.4 -5.3 1001 92 92 0.08 530 530 
THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.4 1003 90 96 0.04 534 531 
THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.5 -5.5 1007 78 84 0.02 538 532 
FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.1 -8.0 1011 84 89 0.02 538 529 
FRI 06Z 01-MAR -2.4 -9.0 1013 84 86 0.02 537 527 

 

DTW

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.8 1.7 1007 69 82 0.01 551 546 
WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -1.8 1004 98 100 0.67 543 540 
WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.7 1001 96 96 0.21 539 538 
WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -3.6 1000 96 94 0.10 536 537 
WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.8 -5.1 1000 95 99 0.10 534 534 
THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.6 -5.5 1001 96 99 0.12 532 531 
THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1001 93 97 0.07 530 529 
THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.3 -5.1 1004 89 97 0.03 534 531 
THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.4 -5.6 1008 78 82 0.01 539 532 
FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.1 -8.1 1011 84 92 0.01 538 529 
FRI 06Z 01-MAR -2.6 -9.1 1014 85 90 0.02 537 527 
FRI 12Z 01-MAR -5.0 -9.8 1016 83 89 0.01 538 526 

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

FULL QPF

 

DET

WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.9 -1.9 1005 98 98 0.60 544 541 

WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.8 -2.4 1001 95 94 0.20 539 538 

WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -3.9 1000 96 97 0.09 537 537 

WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.1 -5.1 1000 93 97 0.08 533 534 

THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.6 -5.5 1000 96 100 0.08 531 531 

THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.4 -5.3 1001 92 92 0.08 530 530 

THU 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.4 1003 90 96 0.04 534 531 

THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.5 -5.5 1007 78 84 0.02 538 532 

FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.1 -8.0 1011 84 89 0.02 538 529 

FRI 06Z 01-MAR -2.4 -9.0 1013 84 86 0.02 537 527 

 

DTW

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.8 1.7 1007 69 82 0.01 551 546 

WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -1.8 1004 98 100 0.67 543 540 

WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.6 -2.7 1001 96 96 0.21 539 538 

WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -3.6 1000 96 94 0.10 536 537 

WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.8 -5.1 1000 95 99 0.10 534 534 

THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.6 -5.5 1001 96 99 0.12 532 531 

THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1001 93 97 0.07 530 529 

THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.3 -5.1 1004 89 97 0.03 534 531 

THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.4 -5.6 1008 78 82 0.01 539 532 

FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.1 -8.1 1011 84 92 0.01 538 529 

FRI 06Z 01-MAR -2.6 -9.1 1014 85 90 0.02 537 527 

FRI 12Z 01-MAR -5.0 -9.8 1016 83 89 0.01 538 526 

I'd prefer this to slow down a touch, if it were and we were to get into night time snowfall, things would look better for accumulation. That said it isn't terrible just need the surface temps to come down a tick.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Yeah but some of the ending snow comes with temps above freezing and with iffy rates who knows if that's sticking. I was mainly looking at pure system (defo band) snow.

 

Right I know. If it could be cold enough the rest of the period, then we'd have accumulating snow for many hours on end.

 

Would be nice to see temps around 30-31°.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

DTX talking the potential up

 

00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT ALL SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY AROUND 6 HOUR OR SO. WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST...ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST OF THE GROUP...GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD QUICKLY IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH BOTH A GOOD CONNECTION TO GULF/MEXICO MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND A RATHER WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE FEED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN REGION OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL HELP OFFSET A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE PER VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE 00Z-12Z TIME FRAME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE STORM ON TUESDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING DURING THIS PROCESS WILL ASSIST GENERAL DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO COOL MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA TO BELOW 0C. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL GIVEN THE POSITION OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SO...1C-2C AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN THIS SAME VEIN...A CONTINUED SLOWING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING WHEN SOLAR INSOLATION FROM LATE WINTER SUN WOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY ONSHORE NOW...IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY 12Z UPPER AIR NETWORK SO TODAY/S MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD SHED SOME MORE LIGHT ON THIS POTENTIAL TIMING TREND.

 

 

GRR downplaying the potential

 

 

WHAT IS HAPPENING FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND CLOSING OFF AND UPPER LOW THAT GOES NEGATIVE TILT (ALWAYS GOOD FOR WET STORM) LATER MONDAY NEAR OKLAHOMA. AN UPSTREAM WAVE (TOO CLOSE IN WAVELENGTH) DOES NOT ALLOW THIS LEAD WAVE TO DEVELOP AS IT MIGHT OTHERWISE DO. SO AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WEATHER VERY SIMILARLY TO WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY (SNOW THAT CHANGES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS). SEEMS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WANTS TO INTERACT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. THAT KEEPS LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. TOWARD FRI THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM CREATE A NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT GOES NEARLY TO ARCTIC. WHILE THAT WILL STILL NOT BRING DOWN ARCTIC AIR IT WILL BRING DOWN COLDER AIR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SO HERE IS MY SPIN ON THIS...WE GET AN OCCLUDED FRONT PRECIPITATION BAND TUESDAY DURING THAT DAY THAT WILL BE MOSTLY WET SNOW... I AM THINKING 1 TO 3 INCHES. THEN WE GET WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW INTO FRIDAY. EVEN THROUGH MY GRIDS DO NOT SHOW LIKELY POPS EACH DAY I REALLY BELIEVE LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY WED-FRI. I CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN ANY PERIOD.

 

IWX also talking the potential up.

 

STG SW TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ACRS THE PACNW EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD SPECTRUM OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS SLWR AND MORE SWD SUPPRESSED TRENDS AND CONSIDERED IDEAL IN FACE OF BLDG DOWNSTREAM BLOCK TAKING SHAPE OVR ERN CANADA THROUGH GREENLAND. IN FACT OP GFS HAD MADE A SIG ADJUSTMENT TWD THE PREFERRED EC/GEM BLEND AND WHICH ADDS GROWING CONFIDENCE TO PSBL POTENT WINTER STORM EARLY NXT WEEK. HWVR SVRL POTENTIAL PITFALLS STILL PRESENT...NAMELY STRENGTH OF POLEWARD WRAPPING WARM NOSE LT MON NIGHT...FRACTURING OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT EWD OF OCCLUDING MATURE CYCLONE...AND LIFTOUT OF WKNG MID LVL CIRC TUE. DETAILS BEYOND MON NIGHT LACKING BUT OVERALL HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TO 06-12Z WINDOW W/FURTHER FWD TIME ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY. REGARDLESS WARM NOSE SURGE SHLD BE TEMPERED GIVEN INITIAL LG DIABATIC COOLING ADJUSTMENT WITHIN VRY DRY WRN EDGE OF ERODING POLAR WEDGE FOLLOWED BY SIGLY LG ADIABATIC COOLING ADJUSTMENT TIMED W/ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYRD ASCENT. THUS ANY MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL SHLD REMAIN BRIEF AND CONFINED TO ONSET OF PCPN. IN ADDN...STG MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE IS LIKELY WITHIN AXIS OF DILATION THROUGH NRN/NE PERIPHERY OF DEEP MID LVL CYCLONE LT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHICH WOULD AUGMENT POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS MUCH HIGHER. STACKED UPR LOW PROGGED TO BECOME ACRS THE ERN OH VALLEY THEREAFTER W/ADDNL ACCUMULATING SNOW WED-FRI WITHIN INCREASINGLY STEEPED NRLY FLW AND MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS AS INCREASINGLY NEG NAO PATTN DVLPS.

 




			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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At first glance, the 0z/6z GFS look dreadful for Toronto due to how far to the west the 0c 850 line gets pulled. However, looking at the soundings, the depth of the warm air is razor thin (confined to 850) and maxes out around 0.8c. Dewpoints are basically at 0c so any kind of evaporative or dynamic cooling processes would likely keep us snow. And GFS BUFKIT shows +SN for Toronto from 90-102 hrs, dropping about 1.25" QPF. Good timing too as it'd mostly be a Tuesday night thing.


 


Plus, GFS appears to be the warmest model, so there's lots of wiggle room here.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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At first glance, the 0z/6z GFS look dreadful for Toronto due to how far to the west the 0c 850 line gets pulled. However, looking at the soundings, the depth of the warm air is razor thin (confined to 850) and maxes out around 0.8c. Dewpoints are basically at 0c so any kind of evaporative or dynamic cooling processes would likely keep us snow. And GFS BUFKIT shows +SN for Toronto from 90-102 hrs, dropping about 1.25" QPF. Good timing too as it'd mostly be a Tuesday night thing.


 


Plus, GFS appears to be the warmest model, so there's lots of wiggle room here.




Euro also in agreement with 1.22" of QPF at yyz with additional backlash. I'm liking this potential, thinking 13-23cm is a good range atm.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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I dislike the warmer trend, but what can we do?  And to Chistorm, it's still February and we have snow on the ground with a strong system coming, likely to be on the correct side of the low.  Early in the season it's the lake, late in the season this, it seems our margin for error is slimmer than it used to be.


			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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		snowstormcanuck
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


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Euro also in agreement with 1.22" of QPF at yyz with additional backlash. I'm liking this potential, thinking 13-23cm is a good range atm.


 


You get the EURO text right? How are 2m temps looking? I know it's much colder aloft than the GFS.


 


I won't throw out any numbers right now, but I do think this has the potential to be an 8:1 type snowfall event. Big winners are probably going to be the high ground N & W of the city but we could do ok so long as things don't trend further north/warmer.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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Its great to have the REAL Alek back!!!


 


I was interested in this one but the last 24 hours of trends give little reason to be excited.  Quick occlusion, warm BL temps, low track overhead, etc.  This has all the makings of a classic mix to 1-2" of cement storm.  The backside snows are quickly becoming more interesting.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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You get the EURO text right? How are 2m temps looking? I know it's much colder aloft than the GFS.

 



I won't throw out any numbers right now, but I do think this has the potential to be an 8:1 type snowfall event. Big winners are probably going to be the high ground N & W of the city but we could do ok so long as things don't trend further north/warmer.





Surface temperatures between 0.4 and 1.2 the entire time with 850's between -1 and -4.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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