afterimage Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 IWX AFD is an interesting read...talking 1/4" ice their southeast zones...which is essentially my area, although i am in IND technically... LONG TERM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/WRF....TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM 00Z RUN APPEARED TO BE A MAJOR OUTLIER...BUT NOW SUPPORTS THE EC. THE EC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST RUN TO RUN SUPPORT OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW. CIPS ANALOGS WERE SHOWING VERY LOW SCORES FOR THIS EVENT...NOT HELPING MUCH WITH FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PACKAGE. THE ONGOING GRIDS/FCST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY REFLECTS MUCH OF CURRENT THINKING WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DEVELOPING RAPIDLY...BECOMING ALL SNOW MOST AREAS AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAS HESITANT TO ADD HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL DEFINED TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES TEMPS EXCEEDING 5C IN THE LOWER LAYER ON THE LATEST BUFKIT AT FWA AT 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS PRECIP WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS A MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR JUST FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST AREAS...AND THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW VERY FAST WITH MASSIVE DIABATIC COOLING OF LOWER LAYERS. CURRENT THINKING IS ICE POTENTIAL COULD REACH OVER 1/4 INCH IF THERE IS ANY DELAY IN THE CHANGEOVER DUE TO WARM LAYER AND IF SFC TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPLETELY CUT OFF WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. KEPT TEMPS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 9:38 PM, Alek said: Riding 2.3" at ORD...I'll go with 1.5" IMBYDoes this call represent what you really feel will be the case or are you low balling from your recent crash-b-burns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol at these model thermal profiles here. So marginal. I'm hoping for a convective element to get this to change to snow. otherwise...just another mix of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 9:57 PM, weatherbo said: Does this call represent what you really feel will be the case or are you low balling from your recent crash-b-burns? I was .2" off on my last call for ORD...made over 24 hours out. So....yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 9:53 PM, Alek said: 18z GFS says i'll be busting high again Might want to sit this one out, pal. The weather has gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Blizzard watches up for KS already. Haha, MCI at 2'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Good signal for some "heavier" rains here. Need 0.80" or so to get to normal for Feb at the LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:07 PM, Chicago WX said: Might want to sit this one out, pal. The weather has gotten to you. I think it is. 18z GFS has 3"+ all of northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:10 PM, Chicago WX said: Good signal for some "heavier" rains here. Need 0.80" or so to get to normal for Feb at the LAF. Ye of little faith... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:09 PM, Geos said: 105snow.png Blizzard watches up for KS already. Haha, MCI at 2'! Parts of ne Kansas had their heaviest snow in 50 years, hard to imagine 2 in one week, but looks the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:21 PM, PatrickSumner said: Ye of little faith... So, you think it's gonna snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:07 PM, Alek said: I was .2" off on my last call for ORD...made over 24 hours out. So....yeah. Oh I see. I wasn't sure what your calls were, just had seen you mention busting a couple times so wondered. I wouldn't call a miss by .2" a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:25 PM, Chicago WX said: So, you think it's gonna snow? A little. I'm more concerned with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:25 PM, weatherbo said: Oh I see. I wasn't sure what your calls were, just had seen you mention busting a couple times so wondered. I wouldn't call a miss by .2" a bust. Don't let him fool you. He busted low on his call for his backyard with the last storm. Unless reverse slant-sticking is a thing now... On 2/21/2013 at 2:11 PM, Alek said: looks like .3" here on twisterdata IMBY down from nearly .7" Either way, riding 2.9" for ORD 1.9" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:25 PM, PatrickSumner said: A little. I'm more concerned with ice. We'll see. Things should be "warm enough" for mostly rain here. WAA will be overwhelming (and under modeled) as usual. Might be a different story in Marion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:09 PM, Geos said: 105snow.png Blizzard watches up for KS already. Haha, MCI at 2'! DTW: The 2-4 inch Magnet! 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" Broken Record.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:33 PM, dmc76 said: DTW: The 2-4 inch Magnet! 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" 2-4" Broken Record.... I really wouldnt worry about it. It's a poor run for us and we still manage 3-4 inches. I think that'd honestly be the absolute worst case scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 15z SREF plumes mean for ORD at about 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:29 PM, Chicago WX said: We'll see. Things should be "warm enough" for mostly rain here. WAA will be overwhelming (and under modeled) as usual. Might be a different story in Marion though. I think IWX may go with a winter storm watch as early as tomorrow morning. We shall see. Good luck in LAF! Don't give up hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Those of you that have access o the Euro snow maps.....What was it showing for Genesee County, MI? (About 80 miles north of Detroit) Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:27 PM, Chicago WX said: Don't let him fool you. He busted low on his call for his backyard with the last storm. Unless reverse slant-sticking is a thing now... yeah I was low IMBY and high IMBY total spread under 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:07 PM, Chicago WX said: Might want to sit this one out, pal. The weather has gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:42 PM, WinterStorm294 said: Those of you that have access o the Euro snow maps.....What was it showing for Genesee County, MI? (About 80 miles north of Detroit)Thanks! Honestly models are all over the place you could see as much as a foot to as little as 3". Plan on 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol First call for YBY Alek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:52 PM, Chicago WX said: lol First call for YBY Alek? 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Well Gino is concerned for the first time this winter, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lol at that gif! SREF sounds pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:59 PM, RCNYILWX said: Well Gino is concerned for the first time this winter, so... What's he saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:59 PM, RCNYILWX said: Well Gino is concerned for the first time this winter, so... He isn't working till tomorrow I believe. Meant to ask you what the buzz in like at LOT? If you're there that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 On 2/23/2013 at 10:59 PM, RCNYILWX said: Well Gino is concerned for the first time this winter, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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