wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We are nearing within 144 hours, and there is enough indication of snow potential in the Upper Midwest/W Great Lakes to start a thread imo. The Euro paints a good potential of an advisory or low end warning snow in Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, etc. and the GFS looks like it has similar potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This might be one of the rare instances when an expansive plains snowpack could help those of us in MKE/ORD but in the end, this looks like a another dubuque/madison special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS trying to outdo Feb 8 here. Doubtful but it'd be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 This might be one of the rare instances when an expansive plains snowpack could help those of us in MKE/ORD but in the end, this looks like a another dubuque/madison special. More likely, but we will have a few inches on the ground before the warm up with the storm, so I wonder if that will at least keep any potential rain to a minimum, maybe a fair amount of freezing rain/sleet if there's a sneaky warm layer for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 More likely, but we will have a few inches on the ground before the warm up with the storm, so I wonder if that will at least keep any potential rain to a minimum, maybe a fair amount of freezing rain/sleet if there's a sneaky warm layer for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yay, another rainstorm for LAF. 12z GFS does continue the theme of the 0z run of a Toronto hit. How quickly fortunes change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 We have an inch or just under now, and I think 1-3" is a good call for this next storm (which is in line with what I've thought the last few days), so until we get mid 30s on Sunday 2-3" of snow on the ground is pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The Euro paints a good potential of an advisory or low end warning snow in Chicago. Not that it really matters at this point, but no it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z UK "bombs it out" at 991mb over the QC at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not that it really matters at this point, but no it doesn't. For Milwaukee, the 0C 850 line sinks from there south from 150-162 hours, and about 0.5" QPF ensues, so unless there's a sneaky warm layer, the 850s are below zero for Milwaukee most of the time, and I would think the surface is likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For Milwaukee, the 0C 850 line sinks from there south from 150-162 hours, and about 0.5" QPF ensues, so unless there's a sneaky warm layer, the 850s are below zero for Milwaukee most of the time, and I would think the surface is likewise.I quoted the ORD portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I quoted the ORD portion. My mistake, it was a general statement. It is close, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 DTX and GRR both talking about the 25-26th trending warmer which will cause precip. type issues... at this point, both are leading a heightened probability for a "cold rain".WHAT A SURPRISE!Could of swore I read GRR AFD yesterday morning and WDM was talking about February ending on a "Much snowier and stormy pattern across the Lower Great Lakes"... hmmm snowier? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z GFS is a pig here... huge amounts of precip...temps look borderline, but i would imagine it would be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 DTX and GRR both talking about the 25-26th trending warmer which will cause precip. type issues... at this point, both are leading a heightened probability for a "cold rain". WHAT A SURPRISE! Could of swore I read GRR AFD yesterday morning and WDM was talking about February ending on a "Much snowier and stormy pattern across the Lower Great Lakes"... hmmm snowier? Not so much. There's still time for things to improve, but it's so rare for us to get big snows on the east side of a low. Temps aren't terribly warm at this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z Euro south. Poor man's version of the upcoming storm sorta, but warmer. Low over STL at 138...might be a good run for cycloneville to MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ends up choking itself over Chicago/Milwaukee. But, has the look of a front end "thump" for Geos up to MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ends up choking itself over Chicago/Milwaukee. But, has the look of a front end "thump" for Geos up to MKE. At least it looks to "choke" itself slightly later than this one, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I should add that it basically stalls the weakened storm over the Lake. Wrap around light snow galore for parts of IA, MN, WI, and MI...at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 interesting..the GFS had like an inch of liquid here..maybe even more... my eyes about popped out and my head spun around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 interesting..the GFS had like an inch of liquid here..maybe even more... my eyes about popped out and my head spun around 12z Euro is half that for LSE. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Wash rinse repeat.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Much wetter look to the euro ensembles then OP for YYZ. Ensemble Mean QPF is higher day 8 onwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Much wetter look to the euro ensembles then OP for YYZ. Ensemble Mean QPF is higher day 8 onwards. For the 27 th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For the 27 th storm? ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For Milwaukee, the 0C 850 line sinks from there south from 150-162 hours, and about 0.5" QPF ensues, so unless there's a sneaky warm layer, the 850s are below zero for Milwaukee most of the time, and I would think the surface is likewise. Looks like a wet snow with temperatures starting at 33-34° and slowly sinking. Concrete snow system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Long range has me closs to 40°, guess I'm going to miss this one as well as current storm. GRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Impressive Euro Ensemble mean at 144 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z Euro looks really nice for the northern half of Missouri, the NW half of Illinois (further SE much more mixing/rain concerns) and the southern quarter to half of Wisconsin. 996mb low in N Illinois from 132-144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.