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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo

 

:lmao: It's always thin on QPF

lol.  Good stuff.  Of course the Kenyan runs every 1z because it runs a lot.

 

I'm gonna bump my original 1-3" call to 3-5".  Think we'll get a quick burst of heavy snow for a few hours tomorrow evening.  That should get us to a quick 2-3".  After that initial band we'll probably have light snow the rest of the night.  NWS went with an advisory here.

:lmao:

 

Outlier

IND disco:

 

PER NATIONAL MODEL DISCUSSION WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDTHE GFS SOLUTION

 

In all fairness, they were talking about 12z.

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Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area.

Yeah, it shows the same for Northern IN. Simulated radar precip really blows up across the state.

 

30 hrs:

 

 

 

33 hrs:

 

 

 

 

EDIT: As Stebo says, it is the NAM.

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Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area.

Yeah, it shows the same for Northern IN. Simulated radar precip really blows up across the state.

30 hrs:

33 hrs:

EDIT: As Stebo says, it is the NAM.

Shut your dirty mouth. There's a patch of 35 right over me casa. Lock it in.

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Just wondering have there been verification scores done showing the NAM to be the worst model?

Or is it just weenie-bro-science that its absolute junk?

NAM even brings the .50+ line up to here in MKE..

NAM is useful inside 48 hours...it's not complete trash. But I'm pretty sure the last I checked verification scores, it still has a wet bias. Typically, Euro and SREF verify best with QPF.

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18z GFS gives MSN 0.37" liquid, 3-5" seems like a solid range. If it overperforms maybe 6".

I was looking at MKE instead of MSN when I posted this. 18z actually gives MSN 0.50" liquid (if you count all the light precip on Saturday), so that'd be 5-8". The HPC ensemble guidance says we have a slight shot at 8" http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow

 

I could see this storm overperforming from all the moisture, direct Gulf feed instead of a line of storms blocking it, though that could be a problem later.

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I will say this, this is a pretty powerhouse storm when you look at the map. The ULL has had pretty impressive results in the SW today/tonight. Maybe, just maybe, this storm may retain a little more intensity farther east into our neighborhoods...than earlier indicated.

It's that, or I still have a NAM buzz. Probably the latter...

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