Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 1 foot for Hawkeye. EDIT: and of course we can't forget Dubuque. You know Dubuque is going to cash in somehow, someway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Cut it in half and you're good lol he said this was the "weather service's model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Cut it in half and you're good lol he said this was the "weather service's model" nam wgn.png With those totals it looks more like his trusty RPM P.O.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z GFS gives MSN 0.37" liquid, 3-5" seems like a solid range. If it overperforms maybe 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo It's always thin on QPF lol. Good stuff. Of course the Kenyan runs every 1z because it runs a lot. I'm gonna bump my original 1-3" call to 3-5". Think we'll get a quick burst of heavy snow for a few hours tomorrow evening. That should get us to a quick 2-3". After that initial band we'll probably have light snow the rest of the night. NWS went with an advisory here. Outlier IND disco: PER NATIONAL MODEL DISCUSSION WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDTHE GFS SOLUTION In all fairness, they were talking about 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Early congrats to our Iowa and NW IL posters, most of which have been conspicuously quiet, considering a 4-9 inch forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I really need to cook meat longer...ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I really need to cook meat longer Two words: Meat thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area. NAM, believe it when you see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z 4km NAM radar reflectivity is a must see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area. I am cautiously hoping for an overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area. Yeah, it shows the same for Northern IN. Simulated radar precip really blows up across the state. 30 hrs: 33 hrs: EDIT: As Stebo says, it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Geez 0z NAM with .50"+ all northern IL. Band doesn't weaken that fast and looks slower moving across the area. Yeah, it shows the same for Northern IN. Simulated radar precip really blows up across the state. 30 hrs: 33 hrs: EDIT: As Stebo says, it is the NAM. Shut your dirty mouth. There's a patch of 35 right over me casa. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, NAM Yes, I remember a time when it was the go to model inside 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM, believe it when you see it Considering the cut off between there and here i believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just wondering have there been verification comparison scores done showing the NAM to be the worst model? Or is it just weenie-bro-science that it's absolute junk? NAM even brings the .50+ line up to here in MKE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, 0.52" for LAF on the NAM. Looks good enough for mostly frozen. Good weenie run. Thanks NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just wondering have there been verification scores done showing the NAM to be the worst model? Or is it just weenie-bro-science that its absolute junk? NAM even brings the .50+ line up to here in MKE.. NAM is useful inside 48 hours...it's not complete trash. But I'm pretty sure the last I checked verification scores, it still has a wet bias. Typically, Euro and SREF verify best with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, 0.52" for LAF on the NAM. Looks good enough for mostly frozen. Good weenie run. Thanks NAM. Within 30 hours so you can trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 "Skilling's birthday wish" atleast it agrees with what he showed at 5:30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Within 30 hours so you can trust it? Hope it pulls one out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z GFS gives MSN 0.37" liquid, 3-5" seems like a solid range. If it overperforms maybe 6". I was looking at MKE instead of MSN when I posted this. 18z actually gives MSN 0.50" liquid (if you count all the light precip on Saturday), so that'd be 5-8". The HPC ensemble guidance says we have a slight shot at 8" http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow I could see this storm overperforming from all the moisture, direct Gulf feed instead of a line of storms blocking it, though that could be a problem later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I will say this, this is a pretty powerhouse storm when you look at the map. The ULL has had pretty impressive results in the SW today/tonight. Maybe, just maybe, this storm may retain a little more intensity farther east into our neighborhoods...than earlier indicated. It's that, or I still have a NAM buzz. Probably the latter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Kansas City has NOT had a 12"+ snowfall since 1962... There is an opportunity with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 4km NAM has 6" snows into LAF. Has been trending better and better each run for them. Looking much better for the LAF crew. Nice to see a spread the wealth storm. Also shows 10-12" for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, 0.52" for LAF on the NAM. Looks good enough for mostly frozen. Good weenie run. Thanks NAM. That was a nice surprise. We're still living dangerously with some borderline layers aloft but not like that's anything new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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