Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 CNN is trolling "North of where the biggest snow will fall, Chicago could receive what would be its largest single snowfall of the year -- 4 inches, Miller said. The city usually gets up to 4 feet of snow a year. So far this year, only about a foot has fallen, he said." Inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Live tower cam video from KSN in Wichita: http://www.ksn.com/content/weather/liveradar.aspx When I saw .35" liquid equiv. had fallen on Wichita by noon I was thinking this could really add up fast and maybe if they get a good hit tonight would break the all-time snowstorm record of 15". But then I saw the official noon report is 3". Kind of low ratios for 25 degrees....maybe some measurement error with the liquid equivalent. Snow's still going strong there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro still advertising 100-300 J/kg of CAPE for an extended period for the STL area tomorrow. A lot of QPF showing up on the maps from the convective parameterization scheme. Looks like a rocking good time. I still really expect rapid p-type changes on the fly. Might be a sweet spot to the NW of the metro that gets in on the convection but stays cold enough for all snow and ends up jackpotting a 8+" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 CNN is trolling "North of where the biggest snow will fall, Chicago could receive what would be its largest single snowfall of the year -- 4 inches, Miller said. The city usually gets up to 4 feet of snow a year. So far this year, only about a foot has fallen, he said." Lol. Dramatic effect indeed! RPM in line with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NWS is the best in the biz, no doubt about it. But sometimes the warning/advisory layouts look a little strange. Of course this storm is a huge PITA to forecast I'm sure. I guess the criteria may be different down there, from LSX to PAH...but it just looks, funny (northern part of image). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Link? Let me PM buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NWS is the best in the biz, no doubt about it. But sometimes the warning/advisory layouts look a little strange. Of course this storm is a huge PITA to forecast I'm sure. I guess the criteria may be different down there, from LSX to PAH...but it just looks, funny (northern part of image). Screen Shot 2013-02-20 at 1.49.37 PM. TSA's page looks funny too. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo Just lol'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 TSA did that on purpose, according to their discussion. They expect higher snow amounts in a small band south of lower amounts. I see their thinking but it does look a bit odd on the map, more like if there was a topographic feature there or something, not flat Oklahoma plains lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 TSA did that on purpose, according to their discussion. They expect higher snow amounts in a small band south of lower amounts. I see their thinking but it does look a bit odd on the map, more like if there was a topographic feature there or something, not flat Oklahoma plains lol. Yeah should have thought of the Ouachita Mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Pardon my ignoance, but can someone please explain to me why this storm occludes and weakens so fast. I remember the GHD storm occluded and weakened kind of like this storm but those located on the eastern portion of this forum were still able to get 8-12. With this storm we'll be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 for here Thursday NIght- Snow before 3am, then a chance of snow and freezing drizzle. Low around 24. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A full blown weenie must've wrote that; perhaps down by Dodgeville or Platteville, which may even be out of the CWA, but beyond that, the 3-5" range for Madison looks ok, but not 3-5" then 1-2" additional. Yup I agree, they really shouldn't include the whole CWA in one SWS since there's a decent snow gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Forecast amounts are higher than the 12z GFS suggests, but things keep changing with this one. NWS is smart not to windshield wipe too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 it's like a 2" CWA spread, relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 it's like a 2" CWA spread, relax I thought they were actually using the 12z GFS which shows way less snow in Madison, and then assumed they must be referring to the areas way to the southwest that are projected to get the amounts the SWS talks about. Looks like they're just sticking with the higher precip runs from last night though, which show alot of the region getting larger amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 4km NAM going ape over MO tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 4km NAM going ape over MO tomorrow There's potential for freezing rain accumulations to reach 1/2" in part of MO and AR: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z NAM is great. Straight to 35+ DBZ heading for cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 comical how rapidly that shiits the bed as it heads NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Relative humidity comes up big time in a short distance. Interesting to see the moisture coming off the departing storm and Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 killer dry wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS/NAM like the area around the I-70 corridor from about STL eastward for ice with the GFS on the southern end. NE and north central Arkansas already have an ice storm warning posted for .5 to .75 inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 killer dry wedge Yeah, this is one of those where you look out your window and nothing is going on, then 10 minutes later it might be coming down good. Thinking we could see a short period of decent rates here tomorrow night (maybe .5-1" per hour?). Normally don't like going with halves but since it's a small event, I'm liking the 1.5-2.5" range for LAF. Might be able to bump to 2-3" later on if confidence grows in a good front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 These models must have a weird thing about this area. Or I'm paranoid and they just like to [expletive] with me. 18z 4km NAM delivers with the split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah, this is one of those where you look out your window and nothing is going on, then 10 minutes later it might be coming down good. Thinking we could see a short period of decent rates here tomorrow night (maybe .5-1" per hour?). Normally don't like going with halves but since it's a small event, I'm liking the 1.5-2.5" range for LAF. Might be able to bump to 2-3" later on if confidence grows in a good front end thump. Chuck them :weenie: deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Chicago should see a 1-2 hour window of 1"+ hour rates but that will be it and I'll probably be sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 LOT goes with a WWA. 3-5" for everyone, basically, per the advisory text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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