February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2

[cyclone77]

Here ya go Geos.  6hr snowfall from the NAM through 09z Thursday night.

 

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[Brewers]

First call 3.8" at MKE

[Chicago WX]

0z UK has 0.30-0.40" for LAF, probably on the lower end of that range though...but looks like the GooFuS is the driest for here.

 

And it's snowing quite nicely again here right now. Won't give up yet.

[Hoosier]

First call

FWA: 1.5"

IND: 0.2" (mix)

LAF: 0.5" (mix)

MKE: 4.0"

MLI: 5.5"

MSN: 5.7"

ORD: 4.0"

STL: 2.0" (mix)

I think you're lowballing us. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some spits of sleet at the onset but it should be negligible and we likely quickly go to snow as the monster dry layer centered around 850 mb starts to saturate. Then the question becomes how long we can maintain snow as the precip type. I think we can get the bulk of this to fall as snow as long as we can maintain reasonably steady precip rates but of course any small changes could lead to something different. Eventually the mid level dry air will take over and lead to more of an icy transition.

[Chicago WX]

0z UK total QPF through 0z Saturday.

 

7.5-10mm=0.30-0.40"

10-15mm=0.40-0.60"

15-20mm=0.60-0.80"

 

[Geos]

Here ya go Geos.  6hr snowfall from the NAM through 09z Thursday night.

 

 

 

Thanks! Google keeps on putting cool tools on that program. Can't wait to see what's next. 

 

I'll take 3" through 3am. I'll be siked to get above 4". Not sure what the snow peninsula is all about near UGN harbor! haha

Would like to beat out last winter's snow total.

[Chicago WX]

I think you're lowballing us. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some spits of sleet at the onset but it should be negligible and we likely quickly go to snow as the monster dry layer centered around 850 mb starts to saturate. Then the question becomes how long we can maintain snow as the precip type. I think we can get the bulk of this to fall as snow as long as we can maintain reasonably steady precip rates but of course any small changes could lead to something different. Eventually the mid level dry air will take over and lead to more of an icy transition.

 

I'm leaning that the pretty warm layer around 850 erodes slower, thus more sleet. But you know me, never bullish for LAF.

[Hoosier]

I'm leaning that the pretty warm layer around 850 erodes slower, thus more sleet. But you know me, never bullish for LAF.

Wetbulb temps are like -5C to -6C in the 900-800 mb layer at 00z Friday. I'm pretty sure any warm layer is going to get overwhelmed initially...then we just have to hope we hold it off as waa fights back. Definitely not a high confidence forecast but I'm feeling optimistic tonight.

[Chicago WX]

Wetbulb temps are like -5C to -6C in the 900-800 mb layer at 00z Friday. I'm pretty sure any warm layer is going to get overwhelmed initially...then we just have to hope we hold it off as waa fights back. Definitely not a high confidence forecast but I'm feeling optimistic tonight.

 

Are ya? Hope you're right. Even though it's not a lot of precip, majority of it being snow would be nice.

[Hoosier]

Are ya? Hope you're right. Even though it's not a lot of precip, majority of it being snow would be nice.

For now but I may be singing a different tune by 12z. Mid levels dry out faster than Usain Bolt around 6z Fri so that is about the time when it could go more toward light freezing rain/drizzle.

[MidwestChaser]

Is anyone else having issues with the Bufkit workshop? For the last few days, it says it's updated yet still has old data in it.

[Harry]

May as well go with what works this winter and thus my call for BTL/imby.. 3.0"

[Chicago WX]

0z 4km NAM 60 hour weenie map. A ridiculous 24-30" lollipop in southern KS. 

 

[Powerball]

Congrats to the folks getting the "big" snows.

[cyclone77]

HRW-NMM looks pretty sweet at 48hrs.

 

[Geos]

Rough GGEM numbers:

 

DBQ: 0.47"

CID: 0.50"

DVN: 0.49"

MKE: 0.32"

RFD: 0.40"

ORD: 0.38"

DTW: 0.20"

MSN: 0.31"

 

[turtlehurricane]

HRW-NMM looks pretty sweet at 48hrs.

You can really visualize that there's a broad area of cyclogenesis on that map, associated with a broad polar-subtropical jet confluence region, rather than concentrated cyclogenesis that would be associated with a true phasing of the jets.

[Brewers]

0z GFS has 0.37" qpf at MKE while Euro has 0.26"

[Geos]

ORD

 

FRI 00Z 22-FEB  -4.5    -2.0    1023      72      44    0.00     557     539    FRI 06Z 22-FEB  -5.5    -4.2    1019      78     100    0.15     552     537    FRI 12Z 22-FEB  -4.0    -4.7    1013      86      35    0.14     544     534    FRI 18Z 22-FEB   0.1    -4.7    1011      90      60    0.03     542     534    SAT 00Z 23-FEB  -0.4    -8.3    1011      86      55    0.02     541     532  

 

MKE

 

 

THU 18Z 21-FEB  -4.1    -5.7    1030      71       9    0.01     557     534    FRI 00Z 22-FEB  -5.3    -3.5    1025      74      10    0.00     556     537    FRI 06Z 22-FEB  -3.6    -6.4    1020      71      99    0.02     552     536    FRI 12Z 22-FEB  -3.8    -8.0    1015      84      78    0.15     543     532    FRI 18Z 22-FEB  -1.3    -6.0    1011      86      89    0.05     540     531    SAT 00Z 23-FEB  -0.6    -7.5    1010      91      89    0.03     538     530    SAT 06Z 23-FEB  -4.0   -11.1    1011      86      72    0.01     535     526  

[TugHillMatt]

May as well go with what works this winter and thus my call for BTL/imby.. 3.0"

Is that still your biggest snowfall this winter?? Ouch, if it is.

I think I may be able to get about 4 inches of snow around here from the system. This looks like one where we might get a bit of a virga storm.

[TugHillMatt]

ORD

 

FRI 00Z 22-FEB -4.5 -2.0 1023 72 44 0.00 557 539

FRI 06Z 22-FEB -5.5 -4.2 1019 78 100 0.15 552 537

FRI 12Z 22-FEB -4.0 -4.7 1013 86 35 0.14 544 534

FRI 18Z 22-FEB 0.1 -4.7 1011 90 60 0.03 542 534

SAT 00Z 23-FEB -0.4 -8.3 1011 86 55 0.02 541 532

 

MKE

 

 

THU 18Z 21-FEB -4.1 -5.7 1030 71 9 0.01 557 534

FRI 00Z 22-FEB -5.3 -3.5 1025 74 10 0.00 556 537

FRI 06Z 22-FEB -3.6 -6.4 1020 71 99 0.02 552 536

FRI 12Z 22-FEB -3.8 -8.0 1015 84 78 0.15 543 532

FRI 18Z 22-FEB -1.3 -6.0 1011 86 89 0.05 540 531

SAT 00Z 23-FEB -0.6 -7.5 1010 91 89 0.03 538 530

SAT 06Z 23-FEB -4.0 -11.1 1011 86 72 0.01 535 526

Is that the EURO, Geos? Could you give me a head's up for this area?

[wisconsinwx]

ORD

 

FRI 00Z 22-FEB  -4.5    -2.0    1023      72      44    0.00     557     539    FRI 06Z 22-FEB  -5.5    -4.2    1019      78     100    0.15     552     537    FRI 12Z 22-FEB  -4.0    -4.7    1013      86      35    0.14     544     534    FRI 18Z 22-FEB   0.1    -4.7    1011      90      60    0.03     542     534    SAT 00Z 23-FEB  -0.4    -8.3    1011      86      55    0.02     541     532  

 

MKE

 

 

THU 18Z 21-FEB  -4.1    -5.7    1030      71       9    0.01     557     534    FRI 00Z 22-FEB  -5.3    -3.5    1025      74      10    0.00     556     537    FRI 06Z 22-FEB  -3.6    -6.4    1020      71      99    0.02     552     536    FRI 12Z 22-FEB  -3.8    -8.0    1015      84      78    0.15     543     532    FRI 18Z 22-FEB  -1.3    -6.0    1011      86      89    0.05     540     531    SAT 00Z 23-FEB  -0.6    -7.5    1010      91      89    0.03     538     530    SAT 06Z 23-FEB  -4.0   -11.1    1011      86      72    0.01     535     526  

 

Even Brewers prediction will bust for here.  I'm sticking with my 1-3" call.  Weenieing out might be reserved for the next storm....hopefully (fingers crossed).

[Brewers]

Even Brewers prediction will bust for here. I'm sticking with my 1-3" call. Weenieing out might be reserved for the next storm....hopefully (fingers crossed).

Yeah I am on the high end for now. Honestly around 3" seem reasonable at this time as long as qpf totals don't change much over the next 36 hours

[Geos]

Is that the EURO, Geos? Could you give me a head's up for this area?

 

Yes. Looks like 0.22-0.25" for you.

 

Hopefully there will be convection moisture feeding into the snow band. EURO has been the driest all day.

 

Fwiw: it low balled the 2-7-13 event.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Even Brewers prediction will bust for here.  I'm sticking with my 1-3" call.  Weenieing out might be reserved for the next storm....hopefully (fingers crossed).

Avg of ALL model QPF seems to be around .3"

Some nice ratios to be expected as well as TH told us a few pages back.

 

I'm going with a nice even 4"

[RCNYILWX]

Bufkit output for northern IL suggests that we'll be in for a 3-4 hour period starting around 9pm Thursday evening of at least 1"/hour snows, so it could be a nice show for anyone willing to stay up through it. The 40-45 knots of southerly flow at 850 mb and some nice upper jet divergence support overcoming the big dry layer that'll be present at the start, and if the dry layer can be overcome quicker by the strong WAA, that may give credence to the juicier output by the 00z American models tonight. I'm going with 3.5" for the meat of the event at ORD, with 0.5" in backside snows on Friday to bring things up to 4".

[Thundersnow12]

Bufkit output for northern IL suggests that we'll be in for a 3-4 hour period starting around 9pm Thursday evening of at least 1"/hour snows, so it could be a nice show for anyone willing to stay up through it. The 40-45 knots of southerly flow at 850 mb and some nice upper jet divergence support overcoming the big dry layer that'll be present at the start, and if the dry layer can be overcome quicker by the strong WAA, that may give credence to the juicier output by the 00z American models tonight. I'm going with 3.5" for the meat of the event at ORD, with 0.5" in backside snows on Friday to bring things up to 4".

 

Seems like a good call.

 

The 0z NAM Cobb data was suggesting 5.8" in 6hr, overdone but still impressive rates for a period as you mentioned.

 

12/20/10 repeat.

[RCNYILWX]

Seems like a good call.

 

The 0z NAM Cobb data was suggesting 5.8" in 6hr, overdone but still impressive rates for a period as you mentioned.

 

12/20/10 repeat.

Agreed, obviously way different set-up than 12/20/10 but everything else seems to be lining up for a short duration of pretty impressive snowfall rates (though we probably won't see thundersnow this time). The negating factors, the initial dry wedge and also the fairly rapid loss of saturation through the DGZ are what makes me think the NAM is overdone and lean toward the 3-4" range. But on the plus side the DGZ looks like it'll be AOA 100 mb deep and surface temps support ratios 12-14:1, so coupled with the other positive factors, I could see it being where we'll have virga then flurries while we're saturating, quickly to a moderate to heavy snow for much of that 3-4 hr period until the midlevel drying arrives and we transition to snizzle (as Gino terms it). Even the drier Euro with 0.29" liquid during the strong WAA part of the event would suggest at least 3-3.5" at ORD. Would be nice if this is the rare event this winter that overperforms.

[A-L-E-K]

early hi-res look has a very scattered/showery look to it.

 

[BowMeHunter]

looks as model advertised to me for the most part.