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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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from IWX

HAVE NOT MADE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO

FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS BEGINNING TO

TAKE SHAPE IN REALIZING THESE AMOUNTS. STRONGER UPPER VORT

MAX NOW APPEARS TO BE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN/WESTERN

MISSOURI. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIFT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT

WEDGE OF MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALSO RAPIDLY ADVECT

NORTHWARD WITH THIS FORCING.

 MAY SEND A LATE EVENING UPDATE TO

SLIGHTLY LOWER PREVIOUS ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS

 

 

Southern MI, take note!

DTX is sticking with 1-2". Which is a lowball forecast per every latest model (NAM, RAP, RGEM) except the GFS (which would be much closer to 2" than 1").

 

I know its nowcast time and stuff, but its interesting in that we were never really in the game until today here. It was supposed to disintegrate to a few hours of light snow here, and clearly that wont be the case unless every model is wrong. Feeling good for a 4-hour thump of snow here. Like everything else this winter, this will not be a big storm here, but snowfall potential seems to get better as the event nears, rather than worse.

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DTX is sticking with 1-2". Which is a lowball forecast per every latest model (NAM, RAP, RGEM) except the GFS (which would be much closer to 2" than 1").

 

I know its nowcast time and stuff, but its interesting in that we were never really in the game until today here. It was supposed to disintegrate to a few hours of light snow here, and clearly that wont be the case unless every model is wrong. Feeling good for a 4-hour thump of snow here. Like everything else this winter, this will not be a big storm here, but snowfall potential seems to get better as the event nears, rather than worse.

GRR is still thinking 1 to 2 inches. I will have trouble picking on them again if they get this one right.

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Forecast for Cedar Rapids.

 

 

REST OF TONIGHT...BLUSTERY  SNOW. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND  3 INCHES. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS  TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

>_> Um, we are already very close to 3 inches and by the looks of the radar, we aren't going to get dryslotted.

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With the snow becoming more showery here I doubt we see much more than maybe another inch.  Haven't measured but eyeballing it looks like about 1.5" so far.

 

Surprised to hear about the sleet reports up there by Chicago.  Didn't know sleet was gonna make it that far north.

 

Always expect the worst, dry air to dominate and at the same time precip type issues where there were expected to be none.  It's called this rotten pattern (though I have my fingers crossed that will change).

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Snow underway in Madison, quickly accumulating on top of the coating of freezing drizzle. That east wind is ripping, feels like a real storm.

 

Radar is getting me excited, this thing means business: http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/mw3compflash.html

Yeah that radar looks real good. Can see the nice precip explosion in W. IL too..

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