ILSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL711 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...711 PM CSTTRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. GOESIMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS LEAD SHORTWAVEAND ITS ASSOCIATED SLUG OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO PUSHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOWCONTINUES TO GET EATEN AWAY BY THE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THATIS GETTING SATURATED FROM TOP DOWN. PROGRESSION OF ACARS SOUNDINGSOUT OF MDW FROM 20Z THROUGH NOW SHOWS THAT THE COLUMN IS INDEEDQUICKLY SATURATING...SO START TIME OF THE SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGENERALLY ON TARGET. AS THE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS COULD SEE ABRIEF PERIOD OF GRAUPEL OR SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP EVEN ASFAR NORTH OF THE WI BORDER...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULDOCCUR THIS EVENING.OF NOTE AND SOME CONCERN REGARDING FORECAST SNOWFALL IS THEPRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTOSOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. RUC/WRF-NAM SEEM TO HAVE THEGENERAL TRENDS DECENTLY HANDLED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION LIKELY TOCONTINUE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHEAST...LIKELY REACHING OUR SOUTHERNMOST CWA BETWEEN 03-05Z.THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRY INTRUSION MAY ULTIMATELY BEGINTO SLOW DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINEDVORTICITY MAX PIVOTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MISSOURIEARLY THIS EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE PIVOTS COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUNDTHE LARGE UPPER LOW MODELS SUGGEST SOME RAMPING UP OF UPWARDVERTICAL VELOCITIES OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT OF A FILLING IN OF THEBAND OF STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVERNORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RUC/WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGEST THAT WE WILLLOSE SATURATION IN THE CRITICAL -12 TO -18C LAYER EVEN OVER FARNORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 09-10Z LEAVING LOWER CLOUD VOID OFICE NUCLEI NECESSARY FOR SNOW.WOULD EXPECT A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DRYINTRUSION OVERTAKES THE AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STEEPERLAPSE RATES IN THE DRY INTRUSION AND WEAKER STABILITY WOULDANTICIPATE THE DRIZZLE TO BE PUNCTUATED WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERYSNOW AT TIMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.THE TIME PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IS LOOKING LIKE ITSGETTING PINCHED A SMIDGE ON THE FRONT END BY THE DRY AIR ANDPROBABLY A BIT MORE ON THE BACK END BY RAPIDLY ENCROACHING DRYINTRUSION...SO THE DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHORTBUT COULD STILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO REACH GOING FORECAST SNOWAMOUNTS...SO AT THIS TIME NOT PLANNING ANY BIG OVERHAULS TO THE SNOWAMOUNT FORECAST BUT WILL BE REFINING GRIDS THIS EVENING TO TWEAKTIMING AND INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EVEN NORTH CENTRALILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD THE ANTICIPATED RE-DEVELOPMENT ANDWESTWARD FILLING IN OF THE PRECIP BAND NOT TAKE PLACE AS ROBUSTLYAS MODELS SUGGEST THEN SNOW TOTALS COULD END UP BEING MUCH CLOSERTO THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST RANGE.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ahhh...mainly snow here now, but nothing to write home about intensity wise. I've seen much better with instability days this winter. Weird storm. stick a fork in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This is about right, now at LAF. Gentle light snow, with decent flakes. Snoozer. SPECI KLAF 220125Z 09015KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC028 M04/M06 A3011 RMK AO2 P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ass suckage. Josh has the snow magnet. You have the sleet magnet. You could ask him for a trade but I don't think you'd succeed. you are correct tim would not succeed. Hope the magnet works as well for big storms as it does the 1-4" ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 stick a fork in it Stuck. Onto Monday-Tuesday's next disappointing LAF rainstorm. Alright, I'll stop my complaining. Best of luck to the rest of you tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Kansas City Kansas, Wyandotte County.Snow m11.0 inch, reported by trained spotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GRR and DTX might be spot on with this storm system. I feel 1-2" is a good forecast, but may be overdone. At this point an inch or less would seem most likely with drizzle being the main player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Was in Milwaukee earlier and ran into some light LES on the way back in spots. Could see the lower clouds to the south thanks to the urban lights moving in. Wind and damp air cuts right through you on a night like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Snow started here bout 5-10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 lol - st louis might be the winner in aleks contest.. wonder how friv fared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GRR and DTX might be spot on with this storm system. I feel 1-2" is a good forecast, but may be overdone. At this point an inch or less would seem most likely with drizzle being the main player. Are you looking at the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Went from sleet back to all snow here.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL TO SRN IND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 220146Z - 220545Z SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL INTO NRN IL AND PORTIONS OF NRN IND LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR. A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL INTO SRN IND. DISCUSSION...NRN PLUME OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS IL/IND WHILE THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND AS INTENSE LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NOW REPORTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SLEET/SNOW LINE MAY ULTIMATELY ESTABLISH ITSELF FROM NEAR CMI IN ECNTRL IL TO LAF TO FWA OVER IND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD ACROSS IL AND NWRN IND WHERE HALF INCH TO PERHAPS ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES MAY BE OBSERVED FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS WARM ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TOWARD SRN WI/LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR SNOW MAINTENANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 you are correct tim would not succeed. Hope the magnet works as well for big storms as it does the 1-4" ones Doubtful. This season, you're the pocket change magnet while turtlehurricane is the big storm magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 still lots of sleet. Looks like some fzra too with glazing on metal objects. I saw a few flakes. I wish I'd hear some thunder to go along with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Increasing reports of snow in Grundy and Will Counties. Read that the lawns are covered in Pontiac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Heavy snow just moved into Cedar Rapids. It is a mix of small and medium-size flakes. The next 3-4 hours is 90% of the storm, so it had better snow hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 GRR and DTX might be spot on with this storm system. I feel 1-2" is a good forecast, but may be overdone. At this point an inch or less would seem most likely with drizzle being the main player. Pessimism is one thing, and it is certainly NO stranger to this board, but less than an inch with mostly drizzle? Goes 100% against model and radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The band of snow that was developing over northeast MO **** the bed. Finally getting some flakes here. Looks like 1-3hrs of snow and then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 great early stage punt meso discussion from Gino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Pessimism is one thing, and it is certainly NO stranger to this board, but less than an inch with mostly drizzle? Goes 100% against model and radar trends. He's in a bad mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Watching the radar returns get eaten up by the dry air for the moment. Still thinking we are going to get less than 2" down this way. Feels like it. The bands of snow are dying just to my SW. A few flurries are blowing around out there now, but for the moment, it doesn't look all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Are you looking at the radar? Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Doubtful. This season, you're the pocket change magnet while turtlehurricane is the big storm magnet. Well dec 26 overperformed as well. Just got to give us the potential. Model qpf has about tripled over the last day here, so we will see what tomorrow morning brings. May be a few hours of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Watching the radar returns get eaten up by the dry air for the moment. Still thinking we are going to get less than 2" down this way. Feels like it. The bands of snow are dying just to my SW. A few flurries are blowing around out there now, but for the moment, it doesn't look all that impressive. Was about to post the same thing. This band is getting demolished. Got the special teams unit on the field, running the play clock down for the punt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Watching the radar returns get eaten up by the dry air for the moment. Still thinking we are going to get less than 2" down this way. Feels like it. The bands of snow are dying just to my SW. A few flurries are blowing around out there now, but for the moment, it doesn't look all that impressive. Was about to post the same thing. This band is getting demolished. Got the special teams unit on the field, running the play clock down for the punt... We knew the band would get obliterated as it pushed NE but it's even worse than I had expected for those further SW. Counting on this secondary vort max to swing through and perk things up seems like fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like the precip band is going to break right in two over CHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looks like the precip band is going to break right in two over CHI. GFS ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 CRAZY heavy snow. The last time the snow as this heavy was on February 1, 2011. Looks like I may get more than forecast since this band of heavy snow isn't budging east, just going due north and it keeps filing in at Lee county. Loop the DVN radar and you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Heavy sleet in Muncie, and not a snowflake in the mix. Edit: I either just heard a rumble of thunder or someone taking the garbage bins out to the curb. I'm thinking the latter, but the sleet is coming down pretty heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cyclone should be getting in on the good stuff pretty soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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