Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Notice 12z euro has 0.25" qpf for DTW Friday, the GFS with its few hundredths is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 map No kidding... the 18z NAM is super-juiced. 1" qpf up to CR. I won't be placing any bets on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 No kidding... the 18z NAM is super-juiced. 1" qpf up to CR. I won't be placing any bets on that. Yeah probably 0.2-0.25" too juicy I'd say in eastern IA. EURO had your area between 0.5-0.6" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 WSWs spreading east into IL....almost up to i-39 in spots. Does that surprise anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Our system almost onshore but will straddle the CA coast for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Man, the NAM continues to pound the qpf on 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 LOT still going with 3-5" GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND NOTED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S 12Z RUNS. MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO A LITTLE CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IL. THE OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH THE EXPECTATION BEING A BURST OF SNOW LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY SPREADING ATOP THE LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT AND TROUGH GREATLY REDUCING SNOW INTENSITY AND LIKELY RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SATURATION IN THE -10 C AND COLDER ICE NUCLEATION LAYER IS LOST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW INITIALLY...THOUGH A WEAK WARM NOSE AROUND 0 DEG C IS INDICATED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW/SLEET THERE AT ONSET BEFORE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS AND PRODUCES ALL SNOW. COMBINATION OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND BUFKIT/COBB SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-12:1 SUPPORT QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BEFORE INTENSITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES WITH ARRIVAL OF AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT INTRUSION. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED FAR WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS INITIALLY STRONGER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LEVEL SATURATION LASTS LONGER...AND THICKNESSES REMAIN A LITTLE COLDER. FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME GLAZING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... THOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY OR SO. ALL IN ALL...GIVEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD EXPECT TO EVENTUALLY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT AS IT DRAWS NEAR. THUS NO WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 map NAMsnow84.png meh, looks ok 2-4" for Chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 WSWs spreading east into IL....almost up to i-39 in spots. Does that surprise anyone? Not me. ILX just put up watches to I-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS nudges the 0.50" line just east of Cyclone. Almost all of the DVN area now 0.50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i'll ride 1.9"...which fits nicely with the take 33% of what the RPM is showing rule You're gonna bust barely low. I predicted 2.0" in the other thread, which was yesterday's NAM cut in half. Of course, that's for ORD. We'll have to trust you not to short-stick for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS 12z & 18z compared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Fun with 15z SREF mean snowfall numbers. "Close as I can figure" totals through 6z Feb 23. Pure entertainment value, use with caution. BTL: 2.6" CID: 8.1" CMI: 2.2" DBQ: 8.1" DKB: 5.9" DSM: 9.8" DTW: 1.6" DVN: 7.4" FWA: 1.2" GRR: 3.2" IKK: 3.7" IND: 0.7" JOT: 5.1" LAF: 1.4" LSE: 7.2" MCI: 11.6" MKE: 5.7" MKG: 3.5" MLI: 7.2" MSN: 6.4" ORD: 5.3" PIA: 5.4" RFD: 6.2" STL: 2.4" UGN: 5.4" UIN: 7.3" VPZ: 2.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You're gonna bust barely low. I predicted 2.0" in the other thread, which was yesterday's NAM cut in half. Of course, that's for ORD. We'll have to trust you not to short-stick for YBY. Yeah ORD is well west of me so should do a little better. We're on the same page. My measurements aren't ideal because it's a super urban environment but I do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Caplan still likes 3-5" but he still showed this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The NAM is like a paperweight: good to look at. That's about it. Wait another 12-24 hours before taking any of it seriously. Stick with your SREFs and the EC for now. Even the GFS and GGEM aren't bad atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS crushes most of the QPF further northeast, and for good reason. Pretty stout dry air layer to fight off as the main band advances. At some point, it will not be able to quickly overwhelm the dry layer and precip totals will plummet to the northeast of that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Caplan still likes 3-5" but he still showed this lol 644202_485000474894601_683383028_n Weird that the highest amount are to the WNW. Would expect them to be towards Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 2.8" for ORD sounds about right. I am sure the Lakefront heater will come up with 2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 My original call for the QC a few days back was 1-3". That's what I've been telling everyone at work today too lol. Recent trends point to higher amounts than that, but still a ways to go. NAM is always over-amped in this range, so it gets tossed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 2.8" for ORD sounds about right. I am sure the Lakefront heater will come up with 2.0" What are you thinking locally? The global models have been wetter (0.15-0.30") than the American models (0.05-0.10"). Freezing drizzle may complicate things too, and with temps aloft we may be seeing a relatively low ratio snowfall for the first time this month. Im gonna go global and say 2". But a few GFS runs have had next to nothing here so thats still a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What are you thinking locally? The global models have been wetter (0.15-0.30") than the American models (0.05-0.10"). Freezing drizzle may complicate things too, and with temps aloft we may be seeing a relatively low ratio snowfall for the first time this month. Im gonna go global and say 2". But a few GFS runs have had next to nothing here so thats still a worry. 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Stormy Weather; Update - 2/19/13...One Storm Down and the Other Out http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/02/stormy-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 My original call for the QC a few days back was 1-3". That's what I've been telling everyone at work today too lol. Recent trends point to higher amounts than that, but still a ways to go. NAM is always over-amped in this range, so it gets tossed IMO. I think You or Hawkeye are going to the winners without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think You or Hawkeye are going to the winners without question. I had hawkeye as my big winner from our subforum in the weenie thread...still like that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 2.8" for ORD sounds about right. I am sure the Lakefront heater will come up with 2.0" My measurement tend to run high if anything. If we overperform, you'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'll say 3.1" for my house as a call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Posted on LOT facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'll say 3.1" for my house as a call right now. Good call, you're far enough west to be in the top 20% of LOT totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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