michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Inch or two is ultra conservative and the NAM is way overboard. Probably something in between the two DTX forecast wording is terrible. "Light snow showers likely" is why people were unprepared for blinding whiteouts on Jan 31 and Feb 16 that caused major freeway pileups. Granted this is different being synoptic. But clearly models would imply a period of mod-heavy snowfall for a few hours giving way to freezing drizzle. Bad wording imo to say "light snow and rain showers" lol wtf? BTW 18z RGEM would give us at least 0.40" qpf. Crazy how just a few days ago this was to fall apart to 0.05-0.10" qpf by the time it reached us. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THELOWER 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOWSHOWERS LIKELY. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO2 INCHES. HIGHS 33 TO 37. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust. Yeah, throw the NAM out the door... Not gonna happen. That map is so clustered. Theres 10" in GRR and less than 2" in BEH... Makes no sense. GFS looks much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DTX forecast wording is terrible. "Light snow showers likely" is why people were unprepared for blinding whiteouts on Jan 31 and Feb 16 that caused major freeway pileups. Granted this is different being synoptic. But clearly models would imply a period of mod-heavy snowfall for a few hours giving way to freezing drizzle. Bad wording imo to say "light snow and rain showers" lol wtf? .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THELOWER 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOWSHOWERS LIKELY. PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO2 INCHES. HIGHS 33 TO 37. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Totally. Either the Michigan offices are going to bust badly and there are going to be some angry, unprepared people....or they are going to have a "great win". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, throw the NAM out the door... Not gonna happen. That map is so clustered. Theres 10" in GRR and less than 2" in BEH... Makes no sense. GFS looks much more realistic. Some of the snow on the NAM does come from wraparound/lake effect throughout the weekend...so perhaps some of that difference is from that? In a way, it doesn't surprise me to see such a big difference. The NAM likes to put too much emphasis on "lake influence" sometimes, so perhaps the lower amounts in BEH is due to the lake cutting amounts (according to the NAM). The GFS still looks to be giving this area 4 to 6 inches, which is definitely more than what GRR is calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 1-2" is too light here, add an inch to both ends and that is probably what we'll get. We are going to get what everyone thought Chicago was going to get 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 finally S- here on the north side PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Band of snow that's moving this way looks like ****. Not what I expected to see on the radar after getting off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The band to the south is not our main show anyway. It's the band in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa we should be focusing on I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is going to underperform here locally I have a strong suspicion. The band of snow is narrow and unless the dry slot to the SW really fills in, we are in trouble for making the projected calls unless this wraps the precip back across the area from the S and SE, which I bet it doesn't. Just started spitting tiny, dry flakes of snow here about 4:55pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is going to underperform here locally I have a strong suspicion. The band of snow is narrow and unless the dry slot to the SW really fills in, we are in trouble for making the projected calls unless this wraps the precip back across the area from the S and SE, which I bet it doesn't. Just started spitting tiny, dry flakes of snow here about 4:55pm. Most of our snow was supposed to come with a heavy band on the leading edge ahead of the dry slot. The band moving in looks pretty meager. Thinking I should have stuck with my original 1-3" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Most of our snow was supposed to come with a heavy band on the leading edge ahead of the dry slot. The band moving in looks pretty meager. Thinking I should have stuck with my original 1-3" call. agree. 12z GFS hinted at this, 18z continued....for some reason many rode the NAM/RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DVN met on fb just mentioned this is looking pretty paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't see this amounting to more than about 2" here locally unless there is a major surprise. This is going to make a lot of the TV met's look really bad. And of course they're already hyping early next week too, bad mistake if this doesn't work out...people won't go for it, even if it does happen...which I have my doubts, we've been in the golden screw zone all Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't see this amounting to more than about 2" here locally unless there is a major surprise. This is going to make a lot of the TV met's look really bad. And of course they're already hyping early next week too, bad mistake if this doesn't work out...people won't go for it, even if it does happen...which I have my doubts, we've been in the golden screw zone all Winter. Skilling still going 4-7" with isolated 8" amounts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Skilling still posting the RPM graphic. Tom must be hittin the crack pipe off camera in an effort to forget about our snow totals since GHD storm. Edit: 4-7 is his call...time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We had a brief period of freezing rain here, but back to all heavy snow again. I tried to get a good measurement but it's drifting. Best guess is 7+ inches right now. Very nice, congrats. Seems this storm came together quite nicely for parts of the STL metro and central/southern IL. Watching the radar echoes creep ever so slowly towards me at the moment. Hope there's an hour or two of fun to be had for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 At this point the best course of action for DVN, ORD and MKX is to go with 1-6", at least they wouldn't bust. Seriously, I've looked at three or four hi-res models today, they all had local totals of 4-7", and here I'm worried about getting 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DVN met on fb just mentioned this is looking pretty paltry. Looking real bad for your back yard. And the way the dry air is eating this band, won't be much in LOTs cwa either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't see this amounting to more than about 2" here locally unless there is a major surprise. This is going to make a lot of the TV met's look really bad. And of course they're already hyping early next week too, bad mistake if this doesn't work out...people won't go for it, even if it does happen...which I have my doubts, we've been in the golden screw zone all Winter. Yeah looking pretty grim. That band heading in now is dissolving away as well. Looks like another loser event for the QC. Hard to get excited at all about the early week system after the abysmal failure yet again with this, but I'll save those rants for the complaint thread later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Very nice, congrats. Seems this storm came together quite nicely for parts of the STL metro and central/southern IL. Watching the radar echoes creep ever so slowly towards me at the moment. Hope there's an hour or two of fun to be had for LAF. Your going to get 6" easy tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Very nice, congrats. Seems this storm came together quite nicely for parts of the STL metro and central/southern IL. Watching the radar echoes creep ever so slowly towards me at the moment. Hope there's an hour or two of fun to be had for LAF. Looking pretty good for us Northern Indiana folks. I can see a slight overachiever in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking real bad for your back yard. And the way the dry air is eating this band, won't be much in LOTs cwa either Was looking forward to an hour or two of heavy snow on the front end. Personally I was more excited about that than whatever the totals ended up being. Oh well, at least it should snow most of the night, just lightly. The slug of precip heading towards LAF looks very impressive. Looks like it will be rip city for them for awhile this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Your going to get 6" easy tonight lol, no way. If we get 2" we'll be lucky. Band is relatively narrow, and weakening as it pulls through...and the splotchy returns behind it will be mixed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 At this point the best course of action for DVN, ORD and MKX is to go with 1-6", at least they wouldn't bust. Seriously, I've looked at three or four hi-res models today, they all had local totals of 4-7", and here I'm worried about getting 2. lol...I busted out a 1-10" call once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 great mix of optimism and bust calls in this thread. EDIT: seriously, the GFS has been king all winter and appears to have the best handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 great mix of optimism and bust calls in this thread. EDIT: seriously, the GFS has been king all winter and appears to have the best handle on things. I'd give it till 9pm or so to call anything. You can hear it in Skilling's voice he believes these high numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at the STL obs from earlier, thought this was impressive enough. 0.28" between 2:00-3:00pm. 2" in that hour, and an ob of +SNPL. METAR KSTL 212051Z 08019KT 1/4SM R30R/1200V1400FT +SNPL FZFG VV004 M04/M06 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP180 SNINCR 2/5 P0028 60060 T10391056 58022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Your going to get 6" easy tonight lol, no way. If we get 2" we'll be lucky. Band is relatively narrow, and weakening as it pulls through...and the splotchy returns behind it will be mixed crap. I'm like you and not excited at all with the storm. Indy TV mets sure are hyping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'd give it till 9pm or so to call anything. You can hear it in Skilling's voice he believes these high numbers. Flakes aren't even due to fall in Chicago until 9 but radar trends are sad and it's hard to count on redevelopment with a weakening system. I still like 2.9" at ORD, 3.4" for SW burbs and 1.9" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looking at the STL obs from earlier, thought this was impressive enough. 0.28" between 2:00-3:00pm. 2" in that hour, and an ob of +SNPL. METAR KSTL 212051Z 08019KT 1/4SM R30R/1200V1400FT +SNPL FZFG VV004 M04/M06 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP180 SNINCR 2/5 P0028 60060 T10391056 58022 I'm kinda surprised there was no mention of thunder in there... there was thunder reported near the airport in that time frame... also here's an updated pic here in Charleston.... yeah the weathermen are going to bust low here with the 1-2" with ice on top considering were approaching 3" already here sorry for the blurriness, the sleet/snow was pelting me right in the face and it HURT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.