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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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LOT almost went with a warning, ticked amounts up a bit, also for winds and 1-2" rates, mentioned possible TSSN as well.

 

pissing me off it won't let me bold anything.

 

A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER TEXAS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS   OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW   VISIBILITIES ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH   THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE   PAST FEW HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD   NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF   THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  SNOW WILL THEN   SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...REACHING THE   CHICAGO METRO AREA AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT.    THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE   SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL.  THE UPPER LEVEL   JET SHIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OVER NORTHERN IL   AND IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE DEEP OMEGA   WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL   AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CWA...DESPITE THE WEAKENING LOW.    THEREFORE THINKING A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES   OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING   ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF   PRODUCING THUNDERSNOW...INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG   WITH THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.    THE BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT REMAINS OVER THE CWA THROUGH   FRIDAY MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK SECONDARY BAND OF   FRONTOGENESIS FORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH A BAND OF NEGATIVE EPV   NORTHEAST OF A LOWELL TO MARENGO LINE.  SREF U AND V WIND ANOMALIES   ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MESOSCALE BAND FORMING OVER NE IL.  AS   SUCH UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION BTWN 06 AND 09Z TO MATCH UP   WITH THE NEGATIVE EPV AREA AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING.      WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE LAKE AND THE   GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT.  WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH   ARE EXPECTED WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 35 KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IL LAKE   MICHIGAN SHORE.  HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY   RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE.    PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. DEBATED UPGRADING   TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS   WIND...REDUCED VSBY...AND HEAVY SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH   ENOUGH.  AS SUCH ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0337 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...SERN IA      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 212137Z - 220130Z      SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1   INCH/HR...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.      DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN   IA SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. SURFACE OBSERVATION HAVE RECENTLY STARTED   REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...INDICATING THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS   HAVE MOISTENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.       ACROSS SERN IA AND NWRN IL...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...DEMARCATED WELL   BY DRYING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NERN MO...IS APPROACHING   THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY   SNOW...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM SW TO   NE.      ACROSS CNTRL IL...RADAR RETURNS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE AREA BUT   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN REPORTING SNOW. AS THE   UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...CONTINUES   NEWD...FORCING FOR ASCENT /PROVIDED BY BOTH WAA AND CVA/ WILL WANE.   HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR   MAY BE OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE   INDICATES A TRANSITION BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SERN   PORTION OF THE MD AREA BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY TO0 WARM   /3 TO 5 DEG F TO0 WARM AT THE SURFACE/ AND RECENT TRENDS BACK TO   SNOW ACROSS SRN IL SUGGEST THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL   REMAIN TO BE SNOW.      ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013      
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point still 2 to 4 which is reasonable

 

new advisory text

 

SNOW FALL RATES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS  EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW FALL RATES  OF ONE INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED.* STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED  WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
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LOT bumped up out here.

 

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-220445-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.130222T0200Z-130223T0000Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...
DEKALB
243 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
  INTO FRIDAY.

* SNOW FALL RATES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
  EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW FALL RATES OF
  ONE INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY 6AM
  FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEREFORE THE
  STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE 5 TO 7 INCHES.


* WIND...WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SPORADIC GUSTS
  TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
  VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE. BRIEF WHITE OUT
  CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO
  SLUSHY ROAD CONDITIONS...BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW VISIBILITIES.
  SHOVELING WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE HEAVY WET SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

 

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That was an incredible band of snow.  Have fun guys.

 

attachicon.gifmcd0194.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0337 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...SERN IA      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 212137Z - 220130Z      SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1   INCH/HR...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.      DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN   IA SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. SURFACE OBSERVATION HAVE RECENTLY STARTED   REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...INDICATING THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS   HAVE MOISTENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.       ACROSS SERN IA AND NWRN IL...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...DEMARCATED WELL   BY DRYING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NERN MO...IS APPROACHING   THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY   SNOW...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM SW TO   NE.      ACROSS CNTRL IL...RADAR RETURNS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE AREA BUT   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN REPORTING SNOW. AS THE   UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...CONTINUES   NEWD...FORCING FOR ASCENT /PROVIDED BY BOTH WAA AND CVA/ WILL WANE.   HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR   MAY BE OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE   INDICATES A TRANSITION BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SERN   PORTION OF THE MD AREA BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY TO0 WARM   /3 TO 5 DEG F TO0 WARM AT THE SURFACE/ AND RECENT TRENDS BACK TO   SNOW ACROSS SRN IL SUGGEST THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL   REMAIN TO BE SNOW.      ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013      
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terrible call

 

I don't agree with the lake enhancement, but slightly higher totals are likely to be in the SE counties based on model trends of precip, and down toward Chicago as well.  The general 3-5" call is not bad at all.

 

Caplan's latest Microcast also throws in a nice weenie band of higher accums along the L Michigan shoreline.  I know the Microcasts and RPMs are always bullish, but it seems most are consistent in some microbands of higher totals, many near the lakeshore.

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18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust.

 

Inch or two is ultra conservative and the NAM is way overboard. Probably something in between the two

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18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust.

Well to be fair the nam has been garbage lately, however I dont think GRR is going to be correct either. DTX doesnt even have advisories out for SEMI when the models have upped the amount of precip. I coulda sworn 3 inches or more was an advisory. 

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I don't agree with the lake enhancement, but slightly higher totals are likely to be in the SE counties based on model trends of precip, and down toward Chicago as well.  The general 3-5" call is not bad at all.

 

Caplan's latest Microcast also throws in a nice weenie band of higher accums along the L Michigan shoreline.  I know the Microcasts and RPMs are always bullish, but it seems most are consistent in some microbands of higher totals, many near the lakeshore.

 

I feel like you can look at radar and tell this will be a 2-3" event for most north of I80...maybe it fill in later a la some guidance but counting on much from dying systems seems like a weenie move.

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Inch or two is ultra conservative and the NAM is way overboard. Probably something in between the two

 

Yeah, I am thinking 4 to 6 inches.

 

 

Well to be fair the nam has been garbage lately, however I dont think GRR is going to be correct either. DTX doesnt even have advisories out for SEMI when the models have upped the amount of precip. I coulda sworn 3 inches or more was an advisory. 

 

I wonder what the MI offices are looking at. They seem to be keying in on the dry air "messing things up" in terms of decent snowfall. What is DTX calling for in terms of amounts for you guys?

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