Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The problem with posting the RPM is that the lower information viewers/Facebook fans think it's his forecast even if his forecast is different than that. I recall when he showed the RPM output of ~30" of snow for Chicagoland for the blizzard. 35" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gee what else is new ILX behind the ball on the warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The RAP did a good job with the 2/7 system, so we'll see. Agreed..actually a little more in NE IL than RAP predicted when most thought it would bust way high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LOT almost went with a warning, ticked amounts up a bit, also for winds and 1-2" rates, mentioned possible TSSN as well. pissing me off it won't let me bold anything. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER TEXAS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL. THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OVER NORTHERN IL AND IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE DEEP OMEGA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CWA...DESPITE THE WEAKENING LOW. THEREFORE THINKING A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR...ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING THUNDERSNOW...INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT REMAINS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK SECONDARY BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS FORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH A BAND OF NEGATIVE EPV NORTHEAST OF A LOWELL TO MARENGO LINE. SREF U AND V WIND ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A MESOSCALE BAND FORMING OVER NE IL. AS SUCH UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION BTWN 06 AND 09Z TO MATCH UP WITH THE NEGATIVE EPV AREA AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE LAKE AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 35 KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IL LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE. PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. DEBATED UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND...REDUCED VSBY...AND HEAVY SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. AS SUCH ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 point still 2 to 4 which is reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 New ILX graphic Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...SERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 212137Z - 220130Z SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN IA SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. SURFACE OBSERVATION HAVE RECENTLY STARTED REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...INDICATING THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. ACROSS SERN IA AND NWRN IL...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...DEMARCATED WELL BY DRYING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NERN MO...IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM SW TO NE. ACROSS CNTRL IL...RADAR RETURNS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE AREA BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN REPORTING SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...CONTINUES NEWD...FORCING FOR ASCENT /PROVIDED BY BOTH WAA AND CVA/ WILL WANE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR MAY BE OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRANSITION BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE MD AREA BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY TO0 WARM /3 TO 5 DEG F TO0 WARM AT THE SURFACE/ AND RECENT TRENDS BACK TO SNOW ACROSS SRN IL SUGGEST THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN TO BE SNOW. ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 point still 2 to 4 which is reasonable new advisory text SNOW FALL RATES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW FALL RATES OF ONE INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED.* STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361483192.810114.jpg New ILX graphic Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! yeah ILX is going to bust on that ice forecast.... it's 90% snow here in Charleston so far... Live cam in Charleston: http://illinoishomepage.net/charlestoncam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LOT bumped up out here. ILZ003-004-008-010-011-220445-/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.130222T0200Z-130223T0000Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB243 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THISEVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.* SNOW FALL RATES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW FALL RATES OF ONE INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY 6AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEREFORE THE STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE 5 TO 7 INCHES.* WIND...WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 35 MPH.* VISIBILITY...HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE. BRIEF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* OTHER IMPACTS...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SLUSHY ROAD CONDITIONS...BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW VISIBILITIES. SHOVELING WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE HEAVY WET SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We just had a period of mixed precip here, but it's changed back over to all snow for now. BIG flakes. Still coming down hard too. We gotta be approaching 6 inches here. I haven't been out in a little over an hour though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That was an incredible band of snow. Have fun guys. mcd0194.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...SERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 212137Z - 220130Z SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN IA SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. SURFACE OBSERVATION HAVE RECENTLY STARTED REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...INDICATING THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. ACROSS SERN IA AND NWRN IL...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...DEMARCATED WELL BY DRYING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NERN MO...IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM SW TO NE. ACROSS CNTRL IL...RADAR RETURNS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE AREA BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN REPORTING SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...CONTINUES NEWD...FORCING FOR ASCENT /PROVIDED BY BOTH WAA AND CVA/ WILL WANE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR MAY BE OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRANSITION BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE MD AREA BUT RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY TO0 WARM /3 TO 5 DEG F TO0 WARM AT THE SURFACE/ AND RECENT TRENDS BACK TO SNOW ACROSS SRN IL SUGGEST THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN TO BE SNOW. ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I have measured 5.5 inches at my house so far. If this was all snow, I would have more than 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 took this about 15 minutes ago outside my apartment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Channel 12's Mark Baden going with slightly higher totals along the lakeshore from Ozaukee County south to Chicago due to lake enhancement (has 4-6" there, 3-5" elsewhere in S Wisconsin). Can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I-L-L SPECI KCMI 212210Z 09013G20KT 1/4SM R32R/2800VP6000FT -SN OVC026 M02/M06 A3011 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SNB04 PRESFR P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I-L-L SPECI KCMI 212210Z 09013G20KT 1/4SM R32R/2800VP6000FT -SN OVC026 M02/M06 A3011 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SNB04 PRESFR P0001 I-N-I! what's the over under on people that show up tonight... 4-5k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 400 PM HEAVY SNOW NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W 02/21/2013 M 17.0 INCH OSBORNE KS CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Channel 12's Mark Baden going with slightly higher totals along the lakeshore from Ozaukee County south to Chicago due to lake enhancement (has 4-6" there, 3-5" elsewhere in S Wisconsin). Can't argue with that. terrible call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 terrible call I don't agree with the lake enhancement, but slightly higher totals are likely to be in the SE counties based on model trends of precip, and down toward Chicago as well. The general 3-5" call is not bad at all. Caplan's latest Microcast also throws in a nice weenie band of higher accums along the L Michigan shoreline. I know the Microcasts and RPMs are always bullish, but it seems most are consistent in some microbands of higher totals, many near the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Moderate snow currently Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Moderate snow currently Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! about to be Heavy DBZ showing 40 just south of u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I-N-I! what's the over under on people that show up tonight... 4-5k? I'm hoping I can sit in A if I go... It finally looks a little bit like winter! I wonder if we'll double our snowfall for the season tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18z Hi-res/lols NAM has a splotchy line of 4-6" from the IN/OH/MI triple point to Port Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust. Inch or two is ultra conservative and the NAM is way overboard. Probably something in between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 18Z NAM showing much of western Michigan getting 6-10 inches from this storm now, yet the GRR NWS is still calling for only an "inch or two" during morning rush hour. LOL. One of them is going to MAJORLY bust. Well to be fair the nam has been garbage lately, however I dont think GRR is going to be correct either. DTX doesnt even have advisories out for SEMI when the models have upped the amount of precip. I coulda sworn 3 inches or more was an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I don't agree with the lake enhancement, but slightly higher totals are likely to be in the SE counties based on model trends of precip, and down toward Chicago as well. The general 3-5" call is not bad at all. Caplan's latest Microcast also throws in a nice weenie band of higher accums along the L Michigan shoreline. I know the Microcasts and RPMs are always bullish, but it seems most are consistent in some microbands of higher totals, many near the lakeshore. I feel like you can look at radar and tell this will be a 2-3" event for most north of I80...maybe it fill in later a la some guidance but counting on much from dying systems seems like a weenie move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We had a brief period of freezing rain here, but back to all heavy snow again. I tried to get a good measurement but it's drifting. Best guess is 7+ inches right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Inch or two is ultra conservative and the NAM is way overboard. Probably something in between the two Yeah, I am thinking 4 to 6 inches. Well to be fair the nam has been garbage lately, however I dont think GRR is going to be correct either. DTX doesnt even have advisories out for SEMI when the models have upped the amount of precip. I coulda sworn 3 inches or more was an advisory. I wonder what the MI offices are looking at. They seem to be keying in on the dry air "messing things up" in terms of decent snowfall. What is DTX calling for in terms of amounts for you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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