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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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Better give my parents a heads up call. :lmao:

 

I actually heard again what he said about that map and said it was the NWS in house model. Edited above^

 

Worse of the dry air in central IL. Snow fighting its way into Springfield.

 

---

This map is really similar to the GGEM.

 

RAP_255_2013022117_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

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Seems like this winter has brought out the downer in a lot of folks. At some point it should be more about this particular setup and not what has happened so far this winter.

It most certainly has. Sw mi has certainly been more synoptically screwed than se mi, and I dont follow their forecasts as much. But this much is a fact for SE MI. We can lament the lack of big storms all we want, but there have been a lot of 2-4" events this season and most have been OVERPERFORMERS. so while I will not say tomorrow is prime to overperform, I WILL say the latest model trends are encouraging. Todays 12z suite is by far the best set of tuns for SE MI (since the storm has been in realistic range) with 0.2-0.3". Temps in the 20s during the snow so at least 10-1 ratios too. And this time, SW MI will do that much better.

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Somebody south of here could get some decent ice. IND mentioned possible upgrade to ice storm warning.

 

I'm starting to worry about that as well, that's something that ILX has not really hyped up a lot, but from a danville/Charleston/Effingham, IL line SE could get a fair bit of ice... glad I have nothing else to do the rest of the week and can sit here..

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It most certainly has. Sw mi has certainly been more synoptically screwed than se mi, and I dont follow their forecasts as much. But this much is a fact for SE MI. We can lament the lack of big storms all we want, but there have been a lot of 2-4" events this season and most have been OVERPERFORMERS. so while I will not say tomorrow is prime to overperform, I WILL say the latest model trends are encouraging. Todays 12z suite is by far the best set of tuns for SE MI (since the storm has been in realistic range) with 0.2-0.3". Temps in the 20s during the snow so at least 10-1 ratios too. And this time, SW MI will do that much better.

SWMI has had several synoptic events and they've over performed??????

I only remember one and it UNDER-performed.

I sure hope we get atleast one notable snowfall yet this season. However I do believe the models are under estimating the dry air over our area for tonight's snowfall.

EDIT: Sorry... Misread. I was being drug around the mall with the ole lady lol

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SWMI has had several synoptic events and they've over performed??????

I only remember one and it UNDER-performed.

I sure hope we get atleast one notable snowfall yet this season. However I do believe the models are under estimating the dry air over our area for tonight's snowfall.

read his post again.

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Kansas City area 9-12" today so far...little break but it looks like another 2-4" for Late PM/Tonight.

 

 

248 PM     HEAVY SNOW       OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W02/21/2013  M12.0 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER            12 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN OLATHE.

 

1200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SHAWNEE                 39.01N 94.81W02/21/2013  M10.0 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC
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Kansas City area 9-12" today so far...little break but it looks like another 2-4" for Late PM/Tonight.

248 PM     HEAVY SNOW       OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
02/21/2013  M12.0 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN OLATHE.
1200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SHAWNEE                 39.01N 94.81W
02/21/2013  M10.0 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

Pretty impressive considering all of that fell in 4-5 hours.

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~80 miles NW of St. Louis:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

247 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0246 PM HEAVY SNOW LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W

02/21/2013 M7.5 INCH PIKE MO BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

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Radar doesn't look too impressive right now but think we get new snow going over northern MO/southern and southeast IA/western IL later this evening as the upper level low gets closer as mid-level heights tank and sitting in the left exit region of the upper level jet and on the nose of mid-level jet. Both the RAP/HRRR are showing this occurring.

 

 

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Waiting for precipitation to arrive in metro Louisville. Temperatures have been in the mid 30's all day. Most forecaster are predicting a bit of freezing rain to start then switching to plain ran after midnight. Crazy to think that if the sun comes out tomorrow that we may hit 60 by the end of the day. Bizarre.

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Radar doesn't look too impressive right now but think we get new snow going over northern MO/southern and southeast IA/western IL later this evening as the upper level low gets closer as mid-level heights tank and sitting in the left exit region of the upper level jet and on the nose of mid-level jet. Both the RAP/HRRR are showing this occurring.

 

 

:yikes:

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Tom Skilling keeps posting the RPM on facebook showing anywhere from 4-8" for Chicagoland. I don't know what too say. If he's just such a super-weenie these days or to believe him if he keeps consistantly posting these images.

The problem with posting the RPM is that the lower information viewers/Facebook fans think it's his forecast even if his forecast is different than that. I recall when he showed the RPM output of ~30" of snow for Chicagoland for the blizzard.

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AVIATION  

 

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...  

 

* LOW MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING,  

 

* POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING.  

 

* STRONG EAST WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS  

AROUND 25 KT.  

 

* PERIODS OF SN DEVELOPING AFTER 03 UTC...THEN POSSIBLY +SN  

BETWEEN 06 AND 10 UTC.  

 

* POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING.  

 

PAW  

 

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...  

 

WINTER STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR  

CEILINGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF THE  

STORM. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE  

MICHIGAN UNTIL THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THIS STORM ARRIVES  

THIS EVENING. TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED...STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW  

INITIALLY SPREADING INTO RFD AROUND 01Z AND THE OTHER TERMINALS  

AROUND 02Z. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW  

LASTING A COUPLE HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES  

DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS. THE STORM SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF  

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS. SO THERE IS A  

SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD OF  

HEAVIER SNOW BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.  

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