Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Better give my parents a heads up call. I actually heard again what he said about that map and said it was the NWS in house model. Edited above^ Worse of the dry air in central IL. Snow fighting its way into Springfield. --- This map is really similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 1.4" in St. Peters, MO thus far. Precipitation is predominantly light, dry snow with sleet intermixed. Intensity has picked up in the last 20 minutes or so. 3" as of 1:15PM. 1.6" in the last hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seems like this winter has brought out the downer in a lot of folks. At some point it should be more about this particular setup and not what has happened so far this winter. It most certainly has. Sw mi has certainly been more synoptically screwed than se mi, and I dont follow their forecasts as much. But this much is a fact for SE MI. We can lament the lack of big storms all we want, but there have been a lot of 2-4" events this season and most have been OVERPERFORMERS. so while I will not say tomorrow is prime to overperform, I WILL say the latest model trends are encouraging. Todays 12z suite is by far the best set of tuns for SE MI (since the storm has been in realistic range) with 0.2-0.3". Temps in the 20s during the snow so at least 10-1 ratios too. And this time, SW MI will do that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Three inches here in Pike County so far. It's only been snowing for about two hours. Still coming down very hard. Visibility is maybe 500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hastings, NE is in a sweet spot right now! With temps around 18, sure its piling up pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like 0.10-0.15" QPF by the time the occlusion reaches us. DGZ is narrow and above the deepest moisture and lift (of what remains of that) so I'm expecting 10:1 ratios. Just enough to pretty up the dingy looking snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 sitting on a major DAM in East Central Illinois right now in Charleston... just now started in Jacksonville within the past hour, still no word on Springfield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like the explosion in precip/moisture is starting across Iowa as predicted. Time for that 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Somebody south of here could get some decent ice. IND mentioned possible upgrade to ice storm warning. I'm starting to worry about that as well, that's something that ILX has not really hyped up a lot, but from a danville/Charleston/Effingham, IL line SE could get a fair bit of ice... glad I have nothing else to do the rest of the week and can sit here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It most certainly has. Sw mi has certainly been more synoptically screwed than se mi, and I dont follow their forecasts as much. But this much is a fact for SE MI. We can lament the lack of big storms all we want, but there have been a lot of 2-4" events this season and most have been OVERPERFORMERS. so while I will not say tomorrow is prime to overperform, I WILL say the latest model trends are encouraging. Todays 12z suite is by far the best set of tuns for SE MI (since the storm has been in realistic range) with 0.2-0.3". Temps in the 20s during the snow so at least 10-1 ratios too. And this time, SW MI will do that much better. SWMI has had several synoptic events and they've over performed?????? I only remember one and it UNDER-performed. I sure hope we get atleast one notable snowfall yet this season. However I do believe the models are under estimating the dry air over our area for tonight's snowfall. EDIT: Sorry... Misread. I was being drug around the mall with the ole lady lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 SWMI has had several synoptic events and they've over performed?????? I only remember one and it UNDER-performed. I sure hope we get atleast one notable snowfall yet this season. However I do believe the models are under estimating the dry air over our area for tonight's snowfall. read his post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Kansas City area 9-12" today so far...little break but it looks like another 2-4" for Late PM/Tonight. 248 PM HEAVY SNOW OLATHE 38.89N 94.81W02/21/2013 M12.0 INCH JOHNSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER 12 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN OLATHE. 1200 PM HEAVY SNOW SHAWNEE 39.01N 94.81W02/21/2013 M10.0 INCH JOHNSON KS PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 STL has managed to stay all/mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 STL has managed to stay all/mostly snow? around the metro it has, once you get south of the metro it switches over to sleet/snow pretty quick, but there's been thundersnow in parts of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Kansas City area 9-12" today so far...little break but it looks like another 2-4" for Late PM/Tonight. 248 PM HEAVY SNOW OLATHE 38.89N 94.81W 02/21/2013 M12.0 INCH JOHNSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER 12 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED IN OLATHE. 1200 PM HEAVY SNOW SHAWNEE 39.01N 94.81W 02/21/2013 M10.0 INCH JOHNSON KS PUBLIC Pretty impressive considering all of that fell in 4-5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 ~80 miles NW of St. Louis: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 247 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0246 PM HEAVY SNOW LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W 02/21/2013 M7.5 INCH PIKE MO BROADCAST MEDIA && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Radar doesn't look too impressive right now but think we get new snow going over northern MO/southern and southeast IA/western IL later this evening as the upper level low gets closer as mid-level heights tank and sitting in the left exit region of the upper level jet and on the nose of mid-level jet. Both the RAP/HRRR are showing this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Waiting for precipitation to arrive in metro Louisville. Temperatures have been in the mid 30's all day. Most forecaster are predicting a bit of freezing rain to start then switching to plain ran after midnight. Crazy to think that if the sun comes out tomorrow that we may hit 60 by the end of the day. Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hwy 40/I-64 being closed down from 270 to hwy 94 in the western STL burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Pretty impressive considering all of that fell in 4-5 hours. Also 20-30 mph winds were reported to, left people stranded on many highways around town. That Dry slot was there saving grace. Could have been epic for K.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 around the metro it has, once you get south of the metro it switches over to sleet/snow pretty quick, but there's been thundersnow in parts of the metro Good to hear. I know csnavy was concerned about sleet getting further north earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Radar doesn't look too impressive right now but think we get new snow going over northern MO/southern and southeast IA/western IL later this evening as the upper level low gets closer as mid-level heights tank and sitting in the left exit region of the upper level jet and on the nose of mid-level jet. Both the RAP/HRRR are showing this occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tom Skilling keeps posting the RPM on facebook showing anywhere from 4-8" for Chicagoland. I don't know what too say. If he's just such a super-weenie these days or to believe him if he keeps consistantly posting these images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The RAP did a good job with the 2/7 system, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 on a bright spot for me, what there is with this storm; counties now to my SW have a weather adv. out for tomorrow. Mainly because of the poss. icy conditions. I "may" see 2.5" of snow with some frez. rain mixed in. Big whoop lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 southwest shutting down ALL operations at Lambert for the rest of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tom Skilling keeps posting the RPM on facebook showing anywhere from 4-8" for Chicagoland. I don't know what too say. If he's just such a super-weenie these days or to believe him if he keeps consistantly posting these images. The problem with posting the RPM is that the lower information viewers/Facebook fans think it's his forecast even if his forecast is different than that. I recall when he showed the RPM output of ~30" of snow for Chicagoland for the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The RAP did a good job with the 2/7 system, so we'll see. storm total qpf the last 3 RAP runs .8", .7", .5"....classic RAP pattern as it comes into better range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 AVIATION //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * LOW MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING, * POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING. * STRONG EAST WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. * PERIODS OF SN DEVELOPING AFTER 03 UTC...THEN POSSIBLY +SN BETWEEN 06 AND 10 UTC. * POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ FRIDAY MORNING. PAW //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... WINTER STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH THIS STORM ARRIVES THIS EVENING. TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED...STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW INITIALLY SPREADING INTO RFD AROUND 01Z AND THE OTHER TERMINALS AROUND 02Z. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW LASTING A COUPLE HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS. THE STORM SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS. SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 33/21 with rain and sleet here. Point forecast is for .10 ice and 1.5 snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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