Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 massive dry slot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Updated calls: Milwaukee: 4.0" Chicago (ORD): 4.2" DVN: 5.2" Madison: 4.2" Seems the consensus is to spread some decent totals further north and east, and while dry air may still be a decent issue, any flurries or snow showers we get before that will mitigate the concern a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Still thinking 2.0" here in Battle Creek... despite what models are showing, I'm going with history of this winter on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Somebody south of here could get some decent ice. IND mentioned possible upgrade to ice storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Still thinking 2.0" here in Battle Creek... despite what models are showing, I'm going with history of this winter on this one. Seems like this winter has brought out the downer in a lot of folks. At some point it should be more about this particular setup and not what has happened so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z RGEM precip type maps bring the mix zone a little farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Higher end amounts aren't completely off the table but at this point I don't think there's enough evidence to go with them. 1) it's very unclear that we will be able to hold off mixing and 2) even if it's predominantly snow during the heavier precip, ratios would probably be terrible (maybe even less than 10:1?). So I think these factors preclude going with 4" or more that some runs have been advertising. Well my post was in reference to Mottster's 2-3 for LAF. That's top end/best case IMO. Going to be a lot of mixing so close to the edge. Good to see the GFS bump QPF for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 watching the returns get eviscerated as they push into the northern tier of MO is a good illustration of just how unfavorable of an environment this is pushing into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seems like this winter has brought out the downer in a lot of folks. At some point it should be more about this particular setup and not what has happened so far this winter. I agree 100%... I am not being a "downer" by any means. When I said "History" of this winter, I meant the overall pattern of this winter thus far. I certainly do hope this system over-preforms for south central lower Michigan, but I really don't think it will for several reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Noticed the NAm showing some lake enhancement along the WI shoreline but with low inversion heights and ESE flow cant really see it amounting to much. As the low moves closer those inversion heights will rise. Only need a delta T of 10°C to get enhancement. There's been lake flurries here on an off this morning. Atmosphere must be moist to around the 850mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well my post was in reference to Mottster's 2-3 for LAF. That's top end/best case IMO. Going to be a lot of mixing so close to the edge. Good to see the GFS bump QPF for us though. I know, I'm just throwing my thoughts out there. I like the 1.5-2.5" range for us. If it's predominantly snow then that could be about an inch too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Troy, MO between St. Louis and Hannibal, MO. Collinsville, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A blend of all the models the WGN weather center uses, produces this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol, skilling fwiw Kush in Manhattan KS only managed 6" before the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A blend of all the models the WGN weather center uses, produces this map. No way that's a blend. He should know better that's not going to happen and not show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z GGEM removed precip from eastern Iowa and added it to areas surrounding Lake Michigan. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No way that's a blend. He should know better that's not going to happen and not show it. Anyone know what his actual call is? It's one thing to show a map but another to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No way that's a blend. He should know better that's not going to happen and not show it. He said a blend for sure. The next map was the RPM and that was even higher. I was around 8" on that, so this was his more "conservative" map, lol. 3-7", Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As the low moves closer those inversion heights will rise. Only need a delta T of 10°C to get enhancement. There's been lake flurries here on an off this morning. Atmosphere must be moist to around the 850mb level. The setup is pretty mediocre as the inversion stays below 850mb until 0z Sat when the inversion begins to lift but by that time winds are out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anyone know what his actual call is? It's one thing to show a map but another to go with it. Pretty sure the general WGN met call is 3-7 or something silly like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 probably a blend of the weenie suite (NAM, RPM, RAP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 probably a blend of the weenie suite (NAM, RPM, RAP) Wentzville, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I was kind of being serious...i wonder if it's some kind of in-house short-range hi-res blend which tend to run wet. The RAP has been going full weenie over Chicago for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I was kind of being serious...i wonder if it's some kind of in-house short-range hi-res blend which tend to run wet. The RAP has been going full weenie over Chicago for a few runs now. I guess we won't know until it gets here. The blend is wet, imo. That RAP radar... been burned on that before. Differences between the GGEM maps Hawkeye posted is significantly different around here. Looks like messy early AM rush hour. Edit: That WGN map above is the NWS in house model. Probably what the HPC is using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 1.4" in St. Peters, MO thus far. Precipitation is predominantly light, dry snow with sleet intermixed. Intensity has picked up in the last 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Getting blasted pretty good here on the NE side of the metro (Alton/Wood River area). Started as a mix of mostly sleet with a bit of FZRA, then a second blast of forcing came in aloft and flipped it to all snow with massive flakes and very high rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was wondering when the STL posters would chime in. Radar does seem to show the precip break away around Iowa like the GFS and then GEM hinted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A blend of all the models the WGN weather center uses, produces this Better give my parents a heads up call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Better give my parents a heads up call. radar says tonights game will have a sparse crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 radar says tonights game will have a sparse crowd 5,000 Hopefully a blowout too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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