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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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NWS saying 3-5 for the CWA. 

 

I am still thinking, since heaviest will be oriented NW to SE, down where I am at, will probably see the 3" or less.  I am leery of the "brief" as it is being called, change over to freezing drizzle at one point or another during the storm.  I am thinking that the freezing drizzle, for the portions of the LOT CWA that are  farther SE, will be of a longer duration than is being forecast.  

 

My call for MBY is going to be 2" with a crust. 

 

I have no doubt ORD will see the 3" and farther NW they will see the 5" if not more.

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NWS saying 3-5 for the CWA. 

 

I am still thinking, since heaviest will be oriented NW to SE, down where I am at, will probably see the 3" or less.  I am leery of the "brief" as it is being called, change over to freezing drizzle at one point or another during the storm.  I am thinking that the freezing drizzle, for the portions of the LOT CWA that are  farther SE, will be of a longer duration than is being forecast.  

 

My call for MBY is going to be 2" with a crust. 

 

I have no doubt ORD will see the 3" and farther NW they will see the 5" if not more.

 

 

Any changeover will come well after any decent returns have pushed through.  you are far enough SW that the band might still have some legs...i'd worry much more further NE.

 

3.7" for YBY

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Tons of lightning in MO down through OK 

 

14ya7fm.gif

 

Plus a mixed bag of observations down there this morning.

 

KTUL 211429Z 07012KT 1 1/4SM TS +FZRA BR SCT005 BKN028 OVC046 00/00 A2979

 

KJLN 211421Z 03008KT 1 1/2SM TSPL BR OVC015 M01/M02 A298

 

KH21 211435Z AUTO 07013G24KT 4SM TSUP SCT012 BKN045 OVC075 M03/M05 A2994     RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE THRU W P0005

 

KRCM 211435Z AUTO 05008G15KT 1/4SM +VCTSSN VV002 M05/M07 A3008 RMK AO2     P0002 LTG DSNT SE AND S
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If things break right...you might be correct.

Higher end amounts aren't completely off the table but at this point I don't think there's enough evidence to go with them. 1) it's very unclear that we will be able to hold off mixing and 2) even if it's predominantly snow during the heavier precip, ratios would probably be terrible (maybe even less than 10:1?). So I think these factors preclude going with 4" or more that some runs have been advertising.

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